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Opec+ looks more like a minus for Saudi Arabia. The oil cartel is doing nothing to help the Gulf state lift oil prices. Blame the export surge from newcomer Russia.
欧佩克+对沙特阿拉伯来说更像是一个负数。这个石油卡特尔没有做任何事情来帮助这个海湾国家提升油价。这要归咎于新加入的俄罗斯的出口激增。
Sunday’s meeting of the expanded cartel went badly. Opec+ members such as Nigeria and Angola balked at a proposal to cut output quotas for the rest of 2023. That forced Saudi Arabia’s energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman to propose a Saudi-only 1mn-barrel daily cut for July alone.
周日，扩大后的欧佩克会议进展不顺利。尼日利亚和安哥拉等欧佩克+成员国拒绝了在2023年剩余时间内削减产量配额的提议。这迫使沙特阿拉伯能源部长阿卜杜勒阿齐兹亲王提出，仅7月份，沙特就将每日减产100万桶。
He threatened to extend the cut, but bulls had hoped for tougher action. Brent crude prices accordingly rose just 1.5 per cent on Monday. They have slipped 9 per cent to $77 per barrel this year.
他威胁要延长减产，但多头此前希望能采取更强硬的行动。布伦特原油价格在周一相应地仅上涨了1.5%。今年以来，它们已经下滑了9%，至每桶77美元。
Prince Abdulaziz bristles at oil traders’ unwillingness to see the same positive fundamentals he does. Demand should outpace supply for the rest of this year, he says. Most oil strategists agree with him, but they do not run trading desks. The post-lockdown pick-up in Chinese oil demand has been weaker than anticipated.
阿卜杜勒阿齐兹亲王对石油交易商不愿看到他所看到的积极的基本面感到愤怒。他说在今年余下的时间里，需求应该会超过供应。大多数石油策略师同意他的观点，但他们并不负责交易。封锁后中国石油需求的回升弱于预期。
Meanwhile, cash-strapped Russia is selling as much oil as it can. Since G7 and EU sanctions began Russia’s seaborne crude exports have jumped a fifth, according to Rystad Energy. No wonder some Opec+ members will not play ball with Saudi Arabia.
与此同时，资金紧张的俄罗斯正在尽可能多地出售石油。根据Rystad Energy的数据，自从七国集团和欧盟开始制裁以来，俄罗斯的海运原油出口量已经跃升了五分之一。难怪一些欧佩克+成员国不会与沙特阿拉伯合作。
Russian crude trades $20 below international benchmark prices. Friendly refiners in countries such as India and China happily slurp it up. About 60 per cent of Russian crude lands in both places, says consultancy Bruegel.
俄罗斯的原油交易价格比国际基准价格低20美元。印度和中国等国家友好的炼油厂高兴地吞下了它。咨询公司Bruegel说，大约60%的俄罗斯原油在这两个地方落地。
Equity investors are avoiding oil stocks. Despite hefty payouts, the shares of majors such as ExxonMobil and BP have gone nowhere for the past year. The MSCI All-country energy index has trailed the broader All-country benchmark since October, well after crude’s value peaked last spring.
股票投资者正在避开石油类股。尽管派息丰富，但埃克森美孚(ExxonMobil)和英国石油(BP)等石油巨头的股价在过去一年里却毫无起色。自去年10月以来，MSCI全球能源指数一直落后于大盘基准指数，而原油价格早在去年春季见顶。
Russia needs export income to pay for its war. All things being equal, oil prices will remain rangebound. To be taken seriously, Prince Abdulaziz will have to back up his threat with action at the next Opec+ meeting in November.
俄罗斯需要出口收入来支付战争费用。在所有条件不变的情况下，油价将保持区间波动。为了得到认真对待，阿卜杜勒阿齐兹亲王将不得不在11月举行的下一次欧佩克+会议上用行动来支持他的威胁。