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Despite crude oil’s combustible properties, armed conflict near large oil producers — Russia and now Iran — has not ignited a sustained rise in price. Brent crude fell on Monday, struggling to stay above $90 a barrel, after this weekend’s attack on Israel by Iran.
尽管原油具有可燃性，但大型石油生产国（俄罗斯和伊朗）附近的武装冲突并没有引发油价的持续上涨。在上周末伊朗袭击以色列之后，布伦特(Brent)原油周一下跌，勉强维持在每桶90美元上方。
Why is the oil market so relaxed in the face of escalating regional tensions? The oil price may increasingly self-regulate in price terms. Higher oil prices just stoke fears of a reacceleration of broader price inflation. This would remove one of the factors behind the recent rally in equity prices. It is unlikely that commodity prices would continue to climb should central banks start to play down the prospect of interest rate cuts.
面对不断升级的地区紧张局势，石油市场为何如此放松？油价可能越来越多地在价格方面自我调节。油价上涨只会加剧人们对更广泛价格通胀再次加速的担忧。这将消除近期股价反弹背后的一个因素。如果各国央行开始淡化降息的可能性，大宗商品价格不太可能继续攀升。
World stock prices have rallied a fifth since October, anticipating an inflection point for interest rates. That hope has already dimmed. US Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell this month hinted that the central bank would move slowly. US bond yields, anticipating problems, have risen this year. Interest rate traders anticipate less than half as many reductions by global central banks as at the beginning of the year.
自去年10月以来，由于预期利率将出现拐点，全球股价已经上涨了五分之一。而这一希望已经变得渺茫。美联储(Fed)主席杰伊•鲍威尔(Jay Powell)本月暗示，央行将缓慢行动。由于预期会出现问题，美国债券收益率今年有所上升。利率交易员预计，全球央行的降息次数将不到今年年初的一半。
As a result, equity markets are already more jittery — not a positive for oil. Since 2000 oil prices have rarely continued rising when the S&P 500 has a sustained decline. That surely would happen if oil prices soared in an all-out war between Iran and Israel. Opec+ producers could also use their almost 6mn barrels per day of spare capacity were price rises seen to threaten central banks’ next move, thinks Rystad Energy.
因此，股市已经更加紧张不安，这对油价不利。自2000年以来，油价很少在标普500指数(S&P 500)持续下跌的情况下继续上涨。如果伊朗和以色列之间的全面战争导致油价飙升，这种情况肯定会发生。Rystad Energy认为，如果油价上涨威胁到央行的下一步行动，欧佩克+(Opec+)产油国也可以利用其每天近600万桶的闲置产能。
Traders may also be questioning the extent of Iran’s military threat. The country will not want to hurt its own oil exports. These have picked up markedly in recent years, from a low of about 400,000 b/d in the pandemic year of 2020 to about 1.4mn b/d recently, according to Richard Bronze at Energy Aspects. Almost all of that is tanked to China from the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz.
贸易商可能也在质疑伊朗军事威胁的程度。该国不会希望损害自己的石油出口。Energy Aspects的理查德•布龙泽(Richard Bronze)表示，近年来，这一数字明显上升，从疫情爆发之年2020年每天约40万桶的低点升至最近的每天约140万桶。几乎所有这些都是通过霍尔木兹海峡(Strait of Hormuz)从海湾用油轮运往中国的。
China brokered last March’s restoration of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia after a seven-year dispute. Iran’s largest customer will not want to see that undone, nor does Iran wish to threaten its export revenues. Its recent failed attempt to raise the cost of its discounted oil to its Chinese customers underscores a poor negotiating position.
去年3月，在中国的斡旋下，伊朗和沙特阿拉伯结束了长达7年的争端，恢复了外交关系。伊朗最大的客户不希望看到这一切被破坏，伊朗也不希望威胁到自己的出口收入。最近，伊朗试图提高对中国客户的折扣石油价格，但以失败告终，这突显出其糟糕的谈判地位。
Yes, oil prices could well rise if further hostilities ensue. But as politicians rush to avoid further conflict, markets are already signalling their fears that central banks will keep rates higher for longer. That should help keep oil range bound in the months ahead.
是的，如果发生进一步的敌对行动，油价很可能会上涨。但在政界人士急于避免进一步冲突之际，市场已经发出信号，他们担心各国央行将在更长时间内维持较高利率。这将有助于在未来几个月内让石油价格保持在区间波动。