Israel dreams of a new order in the Middle East

{"text":[[{"start":null,"text":"

"}],[{"start":8.76,"text":"The killing of Hassan Nasrallah came just a few days before the first anniversary of Hamas’s October 7 attacks on Israel. "},{"start":15.727,"text":"With its decapitation of Hizbollah in Lebanon, the Israeli government hopes that it has finally seized the initiative in the battle with its regional enemies. "}],[{"start":24.27,"text":"The US is urging Israel not to escalate the conflict further. "},{"start":28.174,"text":"But Israel is likely to see the current moment as too good an opportunity to miss. "},{"start":32.292,"text":"Many now want to press home the advantage, in the hope of striking a decisive blow against not just Hizbollah but Iran — and the “axis of resistance” that it leads, which includes Hamas, Hizbollah, militias in Iraq and Syria and the Houthis in Yemen. "}],[{"start":46.239999999999995,"text":"In the aftermath of Nasrallah’s killing, Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, talked about an opportunity for “changing the balance of power in the region for years”. "},{"start":55.50699999999999,"text":"If Israel can gravely damage the “axis of resistance”, its achievement would be quietly welcomed in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates — which also fear Iran and have fought a war against the Houthis. "}],[{"start":66.82,"text":"Unlike the Israeli government, the Saudis continue to insist that establishing a Palestinian state is critical to achieving lasting peace in the Middle East. "},{"start":74.71199999999999,"text":"The Saudi government also has good reason to fear the escalation of regional hostilities that could threaten their ambitious development plans. "}],[{"start":81.78,"text":"For Israel, changing the balance of power also involves reversing the national narrative of defeat and confusion that set in after October 7. "},{"start":89.59700000000001,"text":"The Hamas attack was a humiliation for Israel’s intelligence services. "},{"start":93.764,"text":"The country’s reputation for always being one step ahead of its enemies was a key part of its deterrence strategy. "},{"start":99.557,"text":"That reputation was lost in a single day last year, when Israel was comprehensively outwitted by Hamas. "}],[{"start":105.93,"text":"The subsequent war in Gaza has failed to restore Israel’s pride or its security. "},{"start":110.67200000000001,"text":"Despite an operation that has caused massive civilian deaths, Israel has been unable to free all its hostages. "},{"start":116.71400000000001,"text":"It is also losing the battle for international public opinion, and has been accused of genocide in hearings at the International Court of Justice. "}],[{"start":124.18,"text":"The series of attacks on Hizbollah — starting with the exploding pagers, which killed or maimed so many of the organisation’s footsoldiers — has restored the reputation of Israeli intelligence and the morale of the Israeli public. "},{"start":135.809,"text":"The fact that Hizbollah is detested by many Lebanese citizens and some in the wider Arab world, also complicates the normal condemnation of Israel. "}],[{"start":144.58,"text":"The destruction wrought on Hizbollah potentially puts Iran’s government in the most dangerous international situation it has faced for decades. "},{"start":151.54700000000003,"text":"The presence of a powerful Iran-backed militant force with a huge arsenal of rockets — right on Israel’s northern border — was always regarded as key to Iran’s deterrent power against Israel. "},{"start":161.27700000000002,"text":"The theory was that the Israelis would avoid a direct attack on Iran — partly for fear that Tehran would unleash Hizbollah. "}],[{"start":168.59,"text":"Now, with its proxy and ally reeling, Iran is faced with a dilemma. "},{"start":173.282,"text":"It has not come directly to the aid of Hamas. "},{"start":175.912,"text":"If it also stands to one side as Hizbollah is pummelled, its allies will feel betrayed and Israel may be emboldened to take even more radical actions — perhaps including the direct attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities that it has been threatening for decades. "}],[{"start":189.41,"text":"On the other hand, if Iran gets directly involved in a war with Israel, the regime’s survival would be at risk — particularly since the US might well get drawn into the conflict. "},{"start":199.114,"text":"The Americans have sworn off further wars in the Middle East, at least in theory. "},{"start":203.369,"text":"But they are also firmly committed to the defence of Israel and have demonstrated that they are capable of bringing about regime change in the Middle East. "},{"start":210.187,"text":"The bloody, chaotic aftermath of the US-led war in Iraq remains a recent and painful memory in Washington. "},{"start":216.47899999999998,"text":"But the fact that Iran is known to be very close to having the capacity to build a nuclear weapon will increase the temptation for Israel to strike now. "}],[{"start":224.26999999999998,"text":"Some excited supporters of Israel are comparing the current moment to the Six Day War of 1967 — a sudden and unexpected Israeli victory that changed the balance of power in the Middle East. "}],[{"start":234.61999999999998,"text":"But while there are clearly opportunities for Israel in the current situation, there are also massive risks. "},{"start":240.16199999999998,"text":"Hizbollah is reeling but it may still be able to deploy what remains of its arsenal of missiles and hit Israel’s major cities repeatedly. "},{"start":247.17899999999997,"text":"If Israel follows through on its threats of a ground invasion of Lebanon, it could find itself in a quagmire-like conflict that runs for years — at a time when its forces are already at war in Gaza. "}],[{"start":258.23999999999995,"text":"Over the long run, the death and destruction in Lebanon caused by Israeli air strikes is likely to create a new generation of Hizbollah soldiers. "},{"start":266.08199999999994,"text":"Some 60 per cent of Hamas fighters are thought to be orphans from previous conflicts. "}],[{"start":271.49999999999994,"text":"Hizbollah and Hamas are both grievously damaged. "},{"start":274.6789999999999,"text":"But Israel has yet to answer how Gaza will be governed after the war is over. "},{"start":278.80899999999997,"text":"Lebanon’s weak caretaker government may well be incapable of moving into any vacuum left by Hizbollah, in which case Israel could have a failed state on its borders. "}],[{"start":288.15999999999997,"text":"Netanyahu may dream of bringing about a new regional order in the Middle East. "},{"start":292.414,"text":"But regional chaos — with the all the dangers that it brings — seems a more likely outcome. "}],[{"start":297.46,"text":""}]],"url":"https://creatives.ftmailbox.cn/album/173655-1727734246.mp3"}