{"text":[[{"start":5.75,"text":"It is hard to argue with success when you measure it in the trillions of dollars. Tim Cook’s 15-year tenure as Apple chief executive will, rightly, go down as one of the greatest runs in business history. But the figures alone don’t give the full picture or help to explain the scale of the task that lies before John Ternus, who will succeed him later this year."}],[{"start":27.55,"text":"First, consider the numbers. Apple’s after-tax profits this year are forecast to top $125bn, nearly five times what they were when Cook took over. Hugely impressive, to be sure, but that doesn’t explain the 20-fold jump in its share price, or the $3.6tn of stock market value amassed during Cook’s run."}],[{"start":47.85,"text":"The company ploughing its spare cash into buying back more than 40 per cent of its stock helps to explain some of the outperformance. The stock has also undergone a massive re-rating on Wall Street: the shares traded at 14 times earnings when Cook took over, they now change hands at a multiple of around 32."}],[{"start":67.45,"text":"General stock market ebullience accounts for much of this. The rest reflects a reset in how investors look at Apple. What used to be seen as a hit-driven gadget business, vulnerable to changing fashion and swings in hardware cycles, is now viewed as the linchpin of a very stable digital empire."}],[{"start":86.6,"text":"At the outset, many observers doubted that Cook, who lacked engineering and product expertise, would come up with another hit product to match the iPhone. He didn’t, but that turned out to be beside the point. The iPhone has become a juggernaut that has dominated mobile computing for nearly 20 years, and the anchor for a wider business."}],[{"start":106.39999999999999,"text":"Around 40 per cent of Apple’s profits now come from services, led by App Store commissions and Apple’s cut of the revenue Google makes on its gadgets. This makes it look less like an innovative tech leader and more like a powerful gatekeeper able to extract tolls from those who want to reach the estimated 1.5bn people with iPhones."}],[{"start":127.25,"text":"It has been a very profitable formula. But it may not have set the company up to deal with the upheaval threatened by the rise of artificial intelligence."}],[{"start":135.9,"text":"Apple’s shares are still close to their all-time highs, reflecting the market’s generally sanguine view that it doesn’t need to join the ruinously expensive AI race that is consuming much of the tech world. Instead it can just sit back and take a cut from distributing the AI services of others to its massive user base."}],[{"start":153.75,"text":"But AI isn’t just another service, like search, that Apple can collect a fee on. It’s a technology that changes the way computers are programmed and controlled, and it promises entirely new experiences and services. Steve Jobs made Apple by excelling at integrating hardware and software into must-have gadgets. So far, with AI, that trick has eluded his successor."}],[{"start":177.1,"text":"It’s unclear how disruptive AI will be, or what part the most advanced “frontier” models will play if they approach the humanlike level of intelligence that proponents claim is in reach. If other developers are drawn to creating apps to run on top of this AI, the models could become major computing platforms in their own right. At the same time, AI-powered services might lift new types of consumer hardware such as smart glasses and other “wearable” technology. This is certainly what OpenAI has in mind with its app store for ChatGPT and efforts to create new AI gadgets."}],[{"start":212.2,"text":"All of this could weaken Apple’s crucial ties with developers, push operating systems like iOS into the background, and reduce the iPhone’s centrality in its users’ lives."}],[{"start":222.54999999999998,"text":"Far less disruptive outcomes are also possible, of course. If the capabilities of the leading AI models remain largely indistinguishable, it will be hard for any of these companies to set themselves apart or charge a premium. But the risk is unlike anything else seen during Cook’s tenure."}],[{"start":239.35,"text":"And even if frontier models don’t become an existential threat, Apple still hasn’t shown much aptitude for using AI to enhance its own products. In hardware, its Vision Pro headset was an impressive technological feat, but a total commercial flop. If computers worn on the face ever become part of the tech future, then Meta’s lightweight, augmented reality glasses show more promise."}],[{"start":263.55,"text":"In software, the delayed launch of an AI-powered Siri — the centrepiece of what the company calls Apple Intelligence — has been a severe black eye. Nearly two years after promising the new assistant would transform smartphones, there is still no indication that Apple will be able to deliver."}],[{"start":280.40000000000003,"text":"The company can draw comfort from the fact that, apart from chatbots, other tech companies have also yet to translate AI into hit consumer services or gadgets."}],[{"start":289.85,"text":"Ternus, who takes over in September, has spent his career in hardware development, not AI. Unlike his predecessor, though, he is steeped in the technologies and products that have defined the company. There is no telling whether his time at the top will be as long, or anywhere near as financially successful, as Cook’s. But to make a mark he needs to start with the sort of serious product innovation that his predecessor was never called upon to demonstrate."}],[{"start":321.8,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1777080321_9827.mp3"}