{"text":[[{"start":5.2,"text":"Like the characters in the Pixar classic Toy Story, much of the Labour Party is apparently waiting for Andy, marking time till their hero returns to rescue them from the futility of their existence under Prime Minister Keir Starmer. "}],[{"start":17.9,"text":"Not all those Labour MPs who fill their longueurs assembling their dream team for a post-Starmer era have resolved to hand the premiership to Andy Burnham. But there is, for the party at least, an inescapable logic for viewing the Manchester mayor as the best prospect for renewal. "}],[{"start":33.4,"text":"Yet this logic might easily escape the party — which is why so much of the intrigue of recent weeks has been about creating a narrative of momentum and inevitability. "}],[{"start":44,"text":"And Burnham’s allies have a powerful case. If you analyse the concerns about Starmer, they boil down to his deep unpopularity, lack of political grip, an inability to manage his own party, and policies that have alienated progressive voters. Labour MPs want a more effective and charismatic leader to help claw back those people being lost to the Greens, the Liberal Democrats and the Welsh and Scottish nationalists. "}],[{"start":68.35,"text":"Burnham is both charismatic and popular, with higher net favourability ratings than every other significant British politician including his Labour rivals, Wes Streeting and Angela Rayner. Rayner is damaged by having to resign over unpaid tax on her second home, while Streeting is seen by many in the party as too Blairite. Burnham is uncontaminated by this government’s mistakes and seen as someone who has fought his region’s corner. In an era of disenchantment, this Cambridge-educated man who has worked in politics his whole life, rising from special adviser to cabinet minister, has managed to present himself as an anti-establishment outsider. "}],[{"start":106.75,"text":"Above all, he best reflects the direction the party has concluded it wishes to take and which many MPs believe offers the best shot of reassembling electoral support. Yet as Michael Portillo could tell him, being the standout candidate is no guarantee of success."}],[{"start":124.55,"text":"And victory is not inevitable because he is not an MP. With Burnham still outside parliament, allies need to slow the process. Hence the talk about cabinet colleagues forcing Starmer to agree a managed timetable for departure after local and devolved elections next week. Allies of Streeting and Rayner are keen to see a rapid challenge. "}],[{"start":146.35,"text":"Starmer, meanwhile, seems to have no intention of walking away or easing Burnham’s return. His backers talk up the possibility of a reshuffle to demonstrate grip on the party."}],[{"start":157.1,"text":"With their man off the field of play, Burnham’s supporters need to present an easy glide path back so that panicked MPs are ready to wait. We are assured there are unnamed colleagues ready to stand down to allow a by-election and that Starmer will find it far harder to block him again (as in the recent Gorton and Denton contest). News of talks between Burnham and Rayner is dribbled out along with the notion that perhaps she does not really want the top job. "}],[{"start":185.2,"text":"Even if he makes the cut, there are more serious questions about Burnham. While friends say his time in Manchester has transformed him and helped him find his voice, many who knew him at Westminster worry he is a political changeling and a lightweight. "}],[{"start":200.5,"text":"But the biggest issue is the one that may least worry Labour’s selectorate — his agenda, which he calls Manchesterism, a prescription for more municipal and state control of transport, energy and water (one early step could be taking over Thames Water). This is what Burnham describes as “business-friendly socialism”. It is part of his affordability agenda: using public control to hold down the cost of essential services. "}],[{"start":226.25,"text":"He would also herald significant political upheaval, including electoral reform which he argues would change a politics that does not work. He sees a firm pledge of a new voting system as a key offer to progressive voters — and the way to shut out the right. "}],[{"start":242.4,"text":"The challenge for Burnham’s agenda is money. He will inherit the same economy but his comments about not being “in hock to the bond markets” and appetite for loosening the fiscal rules mean investors have already marked his card. His avowed programme would also mean tax rises: equalisation of capital gains tax with income tax, and higher taxes on landlords are among options being studied by his team."}],[{"start":266.9,"text":"The question, then, for Labour is whether this more interventionist approach would in fact boost the British economy or whether markets would take fright and force him into the same hard trade-offs faced by Starmer. It would be a further step away from the market-friendly social democracy of the Blair era. But resisting it would require a rival candidate to contest Burnham’s agenda in a party that does not want to hear. Easier to shut him out of the contest."}],[{"start":290.34999999999997,"text":"These are the substantial challenges to the inevitability of Burnham’s ascent. Why wait for a contender who isn’t to hand just so he can crash the markets, say rivals. And yet, if patience with Starmer is exhausted, a leadership election without the most popular candidate will feel strangely deficient. It could even be a prescription for another contest later in the parliament. "}],[{"start":311.59999999999997,"text":"But the awkward truth is that the inevitable, logical choice might not even be in the contest. Unless his allies can find a way to slow this process, Labour might still be waiting for Andy."}],[{"start":328.54999999999995,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1777600028_1050.mp3"}