{"text":[[{"start":9.8,"text":"With a new chair of the US Federal Reserve in place and inflation fears on the rise, investors will be closely watching Wednesday’s release of minutes from the central bank’s April Open Market Committee meeting."}],[{"start":21.200000000000003,"text":"While Fed officials held their benchmark interest rate steady at the meeting, the decision drew four dissents, with three regional Fed presidents saying they did not support signalling a bias towards cutting rates in future."}],[{"start":34.050000000000004,"text":"Data this week showed US inflation jumped to 3.8 per cent in April, higher than expected, from 3.3 per cent in March. Traders in futures markets have since fully priced in an interest rate rise by March next year, with more than a 50 per cent chance that rates will rise this year. At the start of the week, they were split roughly equally on whether rates would rise over the next 12 months. "}],[{"start":58.25,"text":"“We expect the FOMC minutes to reinforce the Fed’s recent hawkish tone,” Aditya Bhave, US economist at BofA Securities, wrote on Friday. “A growing number of participants are uneasy with strong inflation data and the [April] statement’s perceived easing bias.”"}],[{"start":74.3,"text":"Market participants will also pay close attention to comments by then Fed chair Jay Powell, who said he would remain on the central bank’s board after his eight-year chairmanship ended this month amid attacks from President Donald Trump."}],[{"start":88.39999999999999,"text":"Powell’s decision is likely to complicate the handover to his Trump-appointed successor Kevin Warsh, who must navigate inflation risks from the energy shock and pressure from Trump to keep rates low. "}],[{"start":100.89999999999999,"text":"“In short, the minutes will likely show that incoming chair Kevin Warsh inherits a Fed with little appetite to cut,” Bhave wrote. Michelle Chan"}],[{"start":109.05,"text":"What effect are political turmoil and the Iran war having on the UK economy?"}],[{"start":114.45,"text":"Amid fast-moving developments in Westminster as speculation mounts over the future leadership of the ruling Labour Party, investors will have plenty of fresh data to help them assess the health of the UK economy."}],[{"start":127.25,"text":"April inflation data, due on Wednesday, is expected to show the headline figure fell to 3 per cent, helped by large offsetting factors. That compares with a reading of 3.3 per cent in March, when it was lifted by an 8.7 per cent monthly rise in petrol prices and a 10 per cent jump in air fares."}],[{"start":146.3,"text":"The energy price cap, which dictates the typical British household energy bill, fell 6.6 per cent in April, having been set before the war in Iran, which could shave 0.5 percentage points from the headline rate."}],[{"start":159.45000000000002,"text":"Other administered prices are also being reset, adding downward pressure. Water charges, for example, rose by an average of 5.4 per cent on the previous month this April, compared with a 26.1 per cent increase in 2025."}],[{"start":174.85000000000002,"text":"However, fuel prices could rise by about 15 per cent on the previous month, according to Ellie Henderson, economist at Investec. Price increases could also be seen in other areas, as businesses respond to higher energy costs and rising raw material prices, including aluminium."}],[{"start":192.10000000000002,"text":"The flash S&P purchasing managers’ indices, published on Thursday, and GfK consumer confidence data, published on Friday, will cover May. That includes the local election results, which were disastrous for Labour and have fuelled speculation of a change of leader."}],[{"start":208.60000000000002,"text":"Retail sales data, also published on Friday, will show whether consumers continued stockpiling in April, as they did in March. Labour market figures will provide evidence of whether private sector wage growth continued to ease in the three months to March. Valentina Romei"}],[{"start":224.45000000000002,"text":"How is Germany coping with the oil shock?"}],[{"start":227.10000000000002,"text":"Survey data due on Thursday and Friday will offer fresh insights as to the effects of the Iran war on Europe’s biggest economy, which already has some of the highest industrial energy prices on the continent owing to its dependence on gas imports."}],[{"start":241.8,"text":"Economists polled by Reuters expect business activity to remain in contraction, with S&P Global’s composite purchasing managers’ index for April seen unchanged on Thursday from a month earlier at 48.4 points — some way below the 50-point mark that separates expansion from contraction. "}],[{"start":259.5,"text":"Anatoli Annenkov, senior European economist at Société Générale, said business sentiment had fallen faster in March and April than expected and warned that, while there could be signs of stabilisation in May on the back of the government’s €1tn debt-fuelled investment spree, “any further material declines could soon raise concerns over the possibility of a technical recession in Germany this year”."}],[{"start":284.85,"text":"Friday brings the closely watched Ifo business climate index, which fell to 84.4 points last month from 86.3 in March, leaving business sentiment at its lowest point since May 2020. Economists polled by Reuters expect it to slip further to 84.2 points in May."}],[{"start":304.5,"text":"Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro research at ING, said Germany was in the midst of a longer-term “energy price shock” of which the Iran war was just the “latest of many disruptive events”. "}],[{"start":317.15,"text":"“German industry will be squeezed again by high energy prices and an increasing likelihood of new supply chain frictions,” he said. Ramsay Hodgson"}],[{"start":332.54999999999995,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1779020468_2993.mp3"}