{"text":[[{"start":7.55,"text":"Elon Musk made history this week with the launch of SpaceX’s IPO, the dawn of a new AI era in public stock markets. But, as with everything Musk, it’s hard to tell whether the era will be historic for the right reasons or the wrong ones. "}],[{"start":23.35,"text":"The Nasdaq flotation of Musk’s chatbots-to-rockets company will be followed by the listing of large language model makers OpenAI and Anthropic. SpaceX alone could be worth $1.75tn. The trio’s total value could top $3.5tn. "}],[{"start":41.95,"text":"The listings at last give ordinary shareholders a shot at the pot of gold at the end of the generative AI rainbow, after years when only wealthy private investors and funds have been able to buy direct stakes in hyperscaling start-ups. Soon, these private empires will have to submit to transparent reporting, analysts’ scrutiny, regulators’ attention and board directors’ challenges."}],[{"start":63.800000000000004,"text":"The 200,000-word SpaceX prospectus — surely the most audacious ever published — sets out a vision of extraterrestrial data centres, asteroid mining and developing a “lunar economy”. Musk’s ambition is to harness the sun to “power a truth-seeking” AI. Many investors will find it hard to resist strapping in for lift-off."}],[{"start":84.4,"text":"But the document has caveats as big as the pay deal offered to its founder. The largest, also applicable to OpenAI, is that investment in AI hardware is burning through billions, racking up debt and pushing SpaceX into loss."}],[{"start":99.5,"text":"Then there is the overhang of stock. Musk is subject to a longer than usual 12-month lock-up but other existing shareholders will be able to offload parts of their holdings quickly. Retail investors’ fear of missing out could offset insiders’ hunger for rapid gains but the consequences for already febrile equity markets are uncertain."}],[{"start":118.95,"text":"Traditional governance checks are almost entirely absent. Musk already runs carmaker Tesla and had a chaotic stint as adviser to US President Donald Trump. Here, a two-tier shareholder structure common to tech firms is even more heavily weighted in the founder’s favour. He will have a virtually unchallengeable grip on voting rights and the board. "}],[{"start":139.35,"text":"Only three months ago, SpaceX absorbed another Musk venture, xAI, developer of chatbot Grok. The long-held goal of colonising Mars has for now been eclipsed by his desire to win the costly AI race. If Musk changes direction again and SpaceX turns out to be a trillion-dollar strategic bait-and-switch, there will be little shareholders can do."}],[{"start":162.6,"text":"Apart from breathing a sigh of relief that Musk’s plans to inhabit their planet are now a lower priority, what would a Martian beamed down to Wall Street make of this? Their normal retort would be: “Let the buyer beware. If you want to grab the tail fins of a stock market rocket, expect a wild ride.”"}],[{"start":180.6,"text":"But passive investors will end up owning slivers of SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic destined for public markets, whether they like it or not. Index providers have been vying to loosen their rules, making room for the AI developers. This, then, is an epoch-defining test for market authorities, company directors, and the many promoters of these IPOs as they balance their own self-interest against the need to protect ordinary investors."}],[{"start":207.9,"text":"We have been here before. Revelations in WeWork’s 2019 prospectus of the co-working company’s continuing losses and founder Adam Neumann’s attempts to secure outsized influence cost him his job and torpedoed its listing. By contrast, Facebook’s stock halved within four months of its 2012 IPO, but investors have done well since."}],[{"start":230.70000000000002,"text":"Musk’s goal at SpaceX is to “extend the light of consciousness to the stars”; the AI tycoons’ valuations, ambitions and potential rewards match the scale of their vision. The fate of markets — if not of humanity itself — depends on whether their missions prove possible or impossible."}],[{"start":257.3,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1779588017_7350.mp3"}