{"text":[[{"start":11.2,"text":"Andy Burnham’s victory in the Makerfield by-election moves him a step closer to Number 10. But uncertainty over the timing of a challenge to Sir Keir Starmer, the prime minister, and the lack of clarity on Burnham’s economic policies, meant immediate market reaction was subdued."}],[{"start":28.9,"text":"Investors’ concern remains that a Burnham premiership would drag the Labour government to the left and loosen its stance on spending and borrowing. “He has yet to demonstrate a clear willingness to say ‘no’,” said James Carter, co-head of fixed income at W1M, citing Burnham’s support of the state pensions triple lock and other commitments."}],[{"start":50.55,"text":"News that Burnham was being advised by Richard Hughes, former head of the Office for Budget Responsibility, was taken as a positive sign by investors. But many continue to believe that Burnham would change the fiscal rules and borrow more."}],[{"start":65.39999999999999,"text":"Oil prices will probably continue to exert more influence on gilts, given inflation risks. The Bank of England was able to hold rates steady this week at 3.75 per cent after crude prices fell back from their peak. But worries over the stability of the Iran-US peace deal threaten to push government bond yields back up to more painful levels."}],[{"start":87.75,"text":"A leadership contest could reignite fiscal risks. “A Burnham premiership would inherit a precarious fiscal situation with few tools to deliver meaningful change,” said Citi analysts. “How he intends to manage this will likely be the key fiscal question.” Ian Smith"}],[{"start":101.55,"text":"Is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge moving up?"}],[{"start":105.45,"text":"Investors will look at inflation data due on Thursday for more granular clues about the impact of elevated energy costs from the war in Iran on the world’s largest economy. "}],[{"start":115.60000000000001,"text":"While markets have already digested earlier inflation data that suggested higher prices, the release of the US central bank’s preferred gauge, personal consumption expenditures or PCE, will sharpen market views on the strength of spending."}],[{"start":130.70000000000002,"text":"So far, consumers haven’t adjusted their spending habits in response to the inflation from higher energy costs, keeping the economy buoyed. "}],[{"start":138.95000000000002,"text":"“The hope is that energy prices will keep going down and real income will grow again at a faster pace and catch up to spending,” said Stephen Douglass, chief economist at NISA Investment Advisors. “If that doesn’t happen, spending will have to slow. That’s a downside risk to the economy.”"}],[{"start":154.95000000000002,"text":"Members of the central bank’s policymaking committee revised their views about the cumulative inflation impact at last week’s meeting, the first for new chair Kevin Warsh. "}],[{"start":166.4,"text":"Their median estimates for PCE inflation during 2026 moved from 2.7 per cent to 3.6 per cent and for core PCE from 2.7 per cent to 3.3 per cent. The shift suggests that central bankers no longer treat the energy shock as transitory. "}],[{"start":184,"text":"Douglass said he expected the underlying inflation trend to move in a positive direction once the energy shock is gone for good. “Disinflation will continue and the Fed will get back on track” with a cut in interest rates, he predicted. Jill R Shah"}],[{"start":197.5,"text":"Are there signs of a nascent recovery in Germany?"}],[{"start":201.15,"text":"Survey data due from Tuesday to Thursday will provide an insight into how Europe’s largest economy has reacted to the easing of the energy supply shock caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz."}],[{"start":213.20000000000002,"text":"The first indicator of whether the US-Iran peace deal has boosted Germany’s ailing economy will come via S&P Global’s composite purchasing managers’ index for June. Economists polled by Reuters expect the index to rise to 49.9 from 48.8 points the month prior, almost reaching the 50-point mark that separates expansion from contraction. "}],[{"start":235.35000000000002,"text":"Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro research at ING, said Germany’s economy was in a “twilight zone” with a high risk it had entered contraction in the second quarter of the year due to high energy prices caused by the war and lacklustre government reform efforts. "}],[{"start":251.45000000000002,"text":"“Hard data will still show the fallout from the war in the Middle East and soaring energy prices, while soft data will bring back new optimism as a result of this week’s [deal],” he said. "}],[{"start":263.25,"text":"Wednesday brings the closely watched Ifo business climate index, which fell to its lowest level since May 2020 in April due to the war. A slight increase in May is expected to continue in June with economists polled by Reuters predicting the index to rise to 85.6, still far below prewar levels."}],[{"start":282.75,"text":"And, while consumer sentiment remains heavily subdued, it is expected to improve slightly for a second straight month as it slowly picks up from a war-driven slump. The GfK/NIM Consumer Climate — which measures net sentiment — is expected to rise to minus 27.5 from minus 29.8 in May when it is released on Thursday, according to economists polled by Reuters. Ramsay Hodgson "}],[{"start":312.8,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1782052865_4455.mp3"}