{"text":[[{"start":12.1,"text":"Six weeks after the European Central Bank became the first monetary authority in the G7 to increase interest rates in response to the oil price shock caused by the Iran war, its governing council meets one last time this week ahead of its summer break. "}],[{"start":26.35,"text":"Economists and investors are all betting that the ECB will postpone a further rate increase until September after inflation fell more than expected to 2.8 per cent in June."}],[{"start":37.2,"text":"Swap markets, which have fully priced in a second increase by October, are implying a probability of less than 15 per cent that the ECB will act in July, but investors will be listening carefully for any clues on how policymakers might respond to the recent rebound in oil prices. "}],[{"start":56.2,"text":"“Renewed Middle East tensions reinforce our conviction that the ECB hiking cycle is not over,” BNP Paribas economists wrote in a note to clients. However, they stress that a pause in July followed by a rise in September was the most likely scenario, arguing that the ECB will be inclined to wait for updated economic projections and two more inflation prints “and perhaps clarity on the trajectory of the US–Iran conflict”. "}],[{"start":84.4,"text":"DZ Bank economist Christian Reicherter, who also expects a pause next week, predicts that ECB president Christine Lagarde will strike a “moderately hawkish tone” in the press conference. “Given the existing upside risks to inflation, the central bankers will keep the option of a further interest rate rise open.” Olaf Storbeck"}],[{"start":105,"text":"Will UK economic data be kind to the new prime minister?"}],[{"start":109.25,"text":"Andy Burnham’s first week as prime minister comes with a slew of official data that will inform his key economic challenges, from fostering growth to keeping inflation in check. "}],[{"start":119.75,"text":"On Tuesday, economists polled by Reuters are expecting data to show a slightly higher 5 per cent unemployment rate in the three months to May, but the main event is on Wednesday, the June reading for consumer prices inflation. "}],[{"start":133.4,"text":"Economists anticipate the year-on-year change in the consumer prices index to come in at 2.7 per cent, a slight slowing from 2.8 per cent in May, with help from softer petrol prices after the US-Iran ceasefire."}],[{"start":147.15,"text":"But with the ceasefire creaking and oil prices back up to $85 a barrel, the question is whether energy prices can rise enough to push rate-setters into a more hawkish position. Traders currently put only a slim chance on a move at the July BoE meeting, but are pricing in a quarter-point rise to the base rate by November from the current 3.75 per cent."}],[{"start":168.75,"text":"“It is hard to see a meaningful hawkish pivot at the July meeting, barring a sustained rise in oil prices to close to [$100 a barrel] going into the meeting, we think,” said analysts at Morgan Stanley. "}],[{"start":181.25,"text":"Retail sales figures on Friday will provide a glimpse of the health of UK consumers. Ian Smith"}],[{"start":187.15,"text":"Is US business activity still growing?"}],[{"start":190.3,"text":"Investors will be closely watching US purchasing managers’ surveys on Friday for the latest indication of the health of the world’s largest economy."}],[{"start":198.60000000000002,"text":"Figures from S&P Global are expected to show an improvement in both the manufacturing and services sectors. The former is forecast at 54 and the latter at 51.5, according to economists surveyed by Reuters. Both readings would be slightly higher than the previous month’s and above the 50 mark that separates contraction from expansion."}],[{"start":219.95000000000002,"text":"Manufacturing activity in the country has been boosted by a pick-up in new orders and production, driven in part by the build-out of infrastructure for AI, helping the sector to shrug off concerns about rising oil prices."}],[{"start":232.95000000000002,"text":"“Growth is strong on a fundamental basis,” said Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede. “That’s going to continue to keep showing up in purchasing manager indexes.”"}],[{"start":244.55,"text":"Businesses are also benefiting from refunds from the Trump administration’s massive corporate tax cuts in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which would lift GDP growth this year, Pride said. "}],[{"start":254.9,"text":"Continuing signs of strength for the economy would bolster the case for Federal Reserve interest rate rises later in the year. Traders reined in their bets on higher borrowing costs following lower than expected inflation figures on Tuesday. Futures markets are currently pricing in one quarter percentage point rate increase from the Fed by the end of 2026. Jill Shah"}],[{"start":283.95,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1784460841_1996.mp3"}