{"text":[[{"start":10.32,"text":"Streaking across the skies above the Farnborough International Airshow last month, the latest fighter jets wowed the crowds with acrobatic displays."}],[{"start":18.52,"text":"But on the ground, the big draws this year were sleek, pilotless aircraft with menacing names such as Ghost Bat, Ravenstorm, Valkyrie and Fury, developed by both established defence groups and new, technology-focused entrants."}],[{"start":34.08,"text":"These are not the disposable and relatively cheap drones used so widely in Ukraine and the Middle East, but larger and more expensive “collaborative combat aircraft” armed with sophisticated weapons that can operate alongside conventional fighter jets or patrol the skies independently."}],[{"start":51.28,"text":"This new generation of unmanned vehicles offers clear evidence of how rapid recent advances in autonomous flight technology are changing the way future aerial battles will be fought — and how tens of billions of dollars of government defence budgets will be spent."}],[{"start":64.96,"text":"“There is a range of missions that they are being considered for,” says Charles Woodburn, chief executive of UK defence contractor BAE Systems, which is developing the Brontanax collaborative combat aircraft."}],[{"start":76.64,"text":"While some involve flying alongside fighters with pilots, he tells the FT, some missions could be “sentinel” sorties in which the armed aircraft “is constantly patrolling the skies for incoming drones, and is ready to tackle them immediately because it’s already airborne”."}],[{"start":null,"text":"

"}],[{"start":93.04,"text":"These kinds of advances will change the role of fighter jets and their crews. “The pilot, the guy with the hot rod and guns, will become more of a mission commander,” predicts Peter Nilsson, a former fighter pilot who now heads advanced programmes at the aeronautics unit of Swedish defence group Saab."}],[{"start":109.6,"text":"The aircraft themselves will also evolve. The jets that are in development and are expected to enter service from the mid-2030s at the earliest will be prized for their AI and data-processing capabilities and stealth as much as their speed, manoeuvrability and firepower."}],[{"start":126.52,"text":"Eliot Pence, chief executive of Canadian defence tech start-up Dominion Dynamics, describes them as “stealthy enough to live, long-range enough to stay useful, sensor-rich enough to understand the battlespace and networked enough to direct lower-cost assets at multiple altitudes”."}],[{"start":141.8,"text":"They will also be expensive. Each Boeing F-47, the US Air Force’s planned sixth-generation fighter, could cost between $200mn and $300mn, says Douglas Barrie, senior fellow for military aerospace at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. That is about two to three times the price of an F-35 Lightning, currently one of the world’s most advanced fighters, when the costs of research, testing and maintenance are excluded."}],[{"start":169.16,"text":"With a fleet of high-end autonomous aircraft also estimated to cost between $20mn and $40mn each, according to Barrie, only “two countries on the globe will play in that game — the US and China”."}],[{"start":181.88,"text":"That leaves middle powers with a dilemma of how to ensure they are not left behind. Some countries will continue to operate today’s fourth- or fifth-generation jets, such as the Eurofighter Typhoon, which are being equipped with more advanced weaponry, radar and other systems, while investing in different drones."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":190.05,"text":"Others will form alliances, such as the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) that brings together companies from the UK, Italy and Japan to develop a replacement for current jets and reduce reliance on the US-made F-35."}],[{"start":212.32,"text":"That means governments are now being called upon to make commitments that could either redraw or reinforce political alliances for decades as air forces evolve for a new era of combat."}],[{"start":222.32,"text":"“We need to move ahead now,” Éric Trappier, chief executive of France’s Dassault Aviation, which builds the Rafale jet, told reporters last month. Dassault was part of the Future Combat Air System (FCAS) alliance with Airbus and Indra Sistemas, a Spanish aerospace group."}],[{"start":239.86,"text":"The central fighter-jet element of that venture collapsed in June amid disagreements between Dassault and Airbus’s German-based defence business, and Trappier is now advocating a French-led project to urgently develop a demonstrator aircraft."}],[{"start":253.52,"text":"Trappier acknowledged that it was hard to predict what warfare would look like in 30 or 40 years. “But if we ask ourselves that question, we’ll do nothing — and if we do nothing, we’ll just have to have US developments imposed on us.”"}],[{"start":265.76,"text":"For most people, fighter jets are synonymous with the 1986 film Top Gun, in which Tom Cruise and Val Kilmer portrayed daredevil pilots in F-14 Tomcats dogfighting their Soviet adversaries over the sea."}],[{"start":279.16,"text":"The F-14, an 18-tonne twin-jet fighter that operated from aircraft carriers and entered service in 1974, was typical of the period, engineered for power, payload and speed."}],[{"start":291,"text":"Successor aircraft, such as Lockheed’s F-35 Lightning and F-22 Raptor, are characterised more by their radar-evading stealth shapes and versatility."}],[{"start":300.88,"text":"The sixth-generation jets under consideration today are expected to feature even greater stealth, longer range and more advanced engines. A Farnborough mock-up of the jet at the heart of GCAP, dubbed Tempest in the UK, consisted of a large, delta-wing body with an internal weapons bay."}],[{"start":318.86,"text":"“All permanent members of the Security Council are developing platforms similar to this,” Simon Barnes, head of the air sector at BAE, said this year during a tour of the company’s factories in north-west England. BAE is one of the partners in GCAP, along with Leonardo and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries."}],[{"start":337.08,"text":"“They’re all large, substantially larger than previous airframes, they are all currently crewed, they all have survivability and range at their core, and they are all being developed at pace.”"}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":348.12,"text":"America’s F-47 programme, awarded to Boeing by President Donald Trump in March last year, is the centrepiece of Washington’s Next Generation Air Dominance initiative, the most ambitious combat aircraft project since the 1980s."}],[{"start":361.56,"text":"It is seen as central to countering China’s military build-up in a potential conflict with Taiwan. China itself is believed to be developing a large sixth-generation fighter, designated the J-36 by western intelligence agencies."}],[{"start":375.22,"text":"But the collapse of FCAS has left its European governments and defence groups casting around for new alliances as they seek to spread the fundraising and engineering workload of developing complex new combat aircraft."}],[{"start":387.76,"text":"Canada, seeking to reduce its reliance on the US given its strained relations with Trump, has joined GCAP as an “observer” and a number of other countries, including Australia, are lobbying to become members."}],[{"start":399.28,"text":"“We are currently setting ourselves up to not lose time,” Airbus Defence and Space boss Mike Schoellhorn told investors last month, adding that his preference was “a solution that gives Airbus a significant position in a sixth-generation fighter with a Spanish and German industrial footprint”."}],[{"start":417.22,"text":"The defence industry is waiting to see if that means Airbus and Indra try to join GCAP, which is powering ahead after receiving a £4.6bn contract from its sponsoring governments."}],[{"start":429.44,"text":"“Industrially, I think there’s no doubt that Germany would bring benefits,” says Lorenzo Mariani, chief executive of Leonardo, of the possibility of Airbus joining. “Of course, money matters because I’m pretty sure that GCAP will require a high level of funding in the coming years.”"}],[{"start":445.92,"text":"Another option in Europe would be for Airbus and Indra or Dassault to team up with Sweden’s Saab, which is studying the development of a new generation of fighters under a contract that runs to 2030."}],[{"start":458.08,"text":"Both Airbus and Dassault have held talks with Saab, according to people familiar with the situation. Nilsson, the Saab executive, jokes that he is a “very popular” man but stresses that he talks to everybody. Any final decision is up to the Swedish government, he adds."}],[{"start":474,"text":"Precise details about the capabilities of the new fighters are tightly held by the governments financing their development. The future fighter “probably looks less like a heroic dogfighter and more like a survivable airborne quarterback”, says Pence, of Dominion Dynamics."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":490.12,"text":"Sensors will play an increasingly important role — as they already do in the F-35, which acts as an airborne intelligence and data-processing hub equipped with sensors that can “hoover up” battlefield data, radar for long-range air and ground detection, infrared cameras providing a continuous 360-degree view, and an electro-optical system for long-range target identification."}],[{"start":511.52,"text":"“All of those build together a rich picture of what’s out there,” says one former senior air force officer from a Nato country. “So we’d expect another leap forward in the sixth generation,” they say."}],[{"start":523.76,"text":"Even as uncertainty lingers over the paths France, Germany and Spain will now take, their governments are already progressing plans for the collaborative combat aircraft that will fly alongside manned jets."}],[{"start":534.44,"text":"Berlin has said it wants what it calls a Jagdbomberdrohne — a fighter-bomber drone — and is considering three separate proposals."}],[{"start":542.32,"text":"Boeing is offering a variant of its MQ-28 Ghost Bat, developed under a A$2.34bn ($1.71bn) government programme, in partnership with German defence contractor Rheinmetall."}],[{"start":555,"text":"The Valkyrie, developed by San Diego-based unmanned systems specialist Kratos Defense, has already flown with the US Air Force and US Marine Corps. Airbus is offering to supply the “mission system” for its European variant."}],[{"start":568.36,"text":"Helsing, an AI-focused defence start-up, is offering a new design rather than adapting an existing one. It says the CA-1 Europa is the only fully European product being pitched to Germany’s air force — although it has not yet performed a single test flight."}],[{"start":584.067,"text":"Airbus’s Schoellhorn has told investors the arrival of uncrewed aircraft is shaking up the entire sector. “This whole ecosystem is in flux,” he said in June, adding that collaborative combat aircraft would play “a huge role” in the future of air combat."}],[{"start":598.84,"text":"Britain’s Air Chief Marshal Sir Harv Smyth said at Farnborough that BAE Systems’ Brontanax collaborative combat aircraft was the “start of a meaningful pivot towards sixth-generation air power”."}],[{"start":609.6,"text":"The Brontanax, about the size of a Hawk training jet, was intended to “integrate seamlessly with our crewed platform”, added Smyth."}],[{"start":617.64,"text":"In the US, production contracts for semi-autonomous aircraft have been awarded for designs from General Atomics and Anduril."}],[{"start":624.64,"text":"But this vision of the future has its sceptics. Justin Bronk, senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute think-tank, says other factors also need to be taken into account when fielding a large force of collaborative combat aircraft, including the people, the maintenance and the money needed."}],[{"start":640.96,"text":"Most configurations result in a “less effective force mix” than if the same amount of money and people were allocated to buying additional weapons and decoy systems for the piloted jets themselves, he says."}],[{"start":650.68,"text":"Bronk adds that large collaborative combat aircraft such as the Brontanax appear more viable from an operational perspective, especially if used for roles such as surveillance and reconnaissance inside defended airspace. But even so, they will be fairly expensive to buy, develop and operate, “so they are not free combat mass”."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":670.32,"text":"Others note that there are limits to what air power alone can achieve. Overwhelming aerial dominance has not translated into a clear victory during the recent US-Israeli bombing campaign against Iran."}],[{"start":681.16,"text":"Russian air power has been ineffective on the battlefield in Ukraine, despite the limited resources of its adversary, with Russia’s bombers generally restricting themselves to firing missiles from within their own controlled airspace."}],[{"start":693.12,"text":"Affordability is another consideration for many countries. “If you look at the two next-generation aeroplane programmes, the F-47 and the F/A-XX programme for the US Navy, the US is building the equivalent of Ferraris and Lamborghinis,” says Byron Callan of Capital Alpha Partners, a research firm."}],[{"start":711.16,"text":"Not every nation will be able to afford this gold standard, even assuming the US permits its latest military technology to be exported, he adds."}],[{"start":718.22,"text":"Other nations are likely to continue to buy older piloted aircraft, experts predict, while continuing to invest in collaborative combat aircraft."}],[{"start":726.76,"text":"“The good thing for Sweden is that they are not super stressed. They have the Gripen E just coming out,” says the Saab executive Nilsson, referring to the latest version of his company’s flagship fighter, which features a more powerful engine and advanced electronic warfare capabilities."}],[{"start":742.08,"text":"Dassault is working on the F5, the next upgrade of its best-selling Rafale jet, while according to Bronk, China is still producing “several hundred traditional fighter aircraft a year” for its own military even as it develops sixth-generation warplanes. Current combat aircraft “are going to be around for decades”, he concludes."}],[{"start":760.46,"text":"Pairing existing fighter jets with new autonomous warplanes could have ramifications for America’s decades-old dominance of air combat, including bringing in new competitors for US companies."}],[{"start":770.36,"text":"It will also help to ensure that the pilot in the cockpit remains at the heart of aerial combat — at least for this next generation of fighters."}],[{"start":777.28,"text":"Holger Neumann, Germany’s air force chief, told the business daily Handelsblatt in June that he did not see a replacement for a human in the cockpit who could “make decisions relatively far forward in the direction of the enemy when satellite links or other communication channels are disrupted”."}],[{"start":793.32,"text":"“Machines are superior to us when it comes to comparing large amounts of data,” he added. “But intuition, escalation control and knowing when to increase efforts or ease off are deeply human qualities.”"}],[{"start":807.12,"text":"Dassault’s Trappier echoed this view, predicting in July that a human would “be at the heart of the action, with his human brain, his reason, his fear and his genius”."}],[{"start":816.76,"text":"“So I think that in air combat, man will remain important, and will still be in the whole cycle. His role might change, there will be drones, algorithms, but somewhere he will remain the pilot.”"}],[{"start":828.44,"text":"Additional reporting by Charles Clover in London"}],[{"start":831.52,"text":"Graphic illustrations by Ian Bott and Bob Haslett"}],[{"start":839.8,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1785978893_7919.mp3"}