{"text":[[{"start":10.9,"text":"Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh signalled a hawkish stance at the US central bank in his speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday. One week later, investors will be paying close attention to non-farm payrolls and unemployment data for further clues as to the Fed’s interest rate trajectory."}],[{"start":28.9,"text":"Economists polled by Bloomberg expect 50,000 jobs to have been added in August, with the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1 per cent. It follows a surprisingly weak July job report, showing a contraction of 23,000 jobs. "}],[{"start":43.65,"text":"“This is the report that decides whether the Fed’s hawkish tilt survives contact with the data,” said Natalia Lojevsky, managing director at CIFC Asset Management. “July’s payroll contraction and softer wage growth already argued for patience.”"}],[{"start":59.8,"text":"Warsh underlined the central bank’s focus on inflation at Jackson Hole, triggering a jump in short-dated Treasury yields. Traders also increased their bets on rate rises, with futures markets indicating a 57 per cent chance of a rise in September after his speech, up from 35 per cent a day earlier."}],[{"start":79.1,"text":"Meanwhile, persistent concerns over mounting US government debt continue to drag on the bond market."}],[{"start":85.5,"text":"“Investors remain very focused on long-term Treasuries,” said Larry Holzenthaler, senior portfolio manager at Catalyst Funds. “There are clearly a lot of other structural variables weighing on sentiment at the longer end of the curve.”"}],[{"start":98.9,"text":"Investors are also monitoring data releases more closely under the new Fed regime, which limits guidance on the path of interest rates. "}],[{"start":107.85000000000001,"text":"“The Fed’s guidance under the new chair continues to be unusually thin heading into this release, which raises the stakes on the data itself to do the talking,” Lojevsky added. Michelle Chan"}],[{"start":118.30000000000001,"text":"How bad is China’s economic slowdown?"}],[{"start":121.60000000000001,"text":"China’s official and private purchasing managers’ indices for August are released early next week, offering investors an indication of the severity of the country’s economic slowdown. "}],[{"start":132.4,"text":"The privately run RatingDog manufacturing PMI comes out on Tuesday and is expected to edge up to 51 points, according to a Reuters poll of economists, from 50.9 points in July. If confirmed, that lifts it a tad further away from the 50-point mark that separates an expansion from a contraction in activity."}],[{"start":152.75,"text":"However, economists polled by Bloomberg expect the official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs, out on Monday, to come in at 49.5 and 49.6 points respectively."}],[{"start":166,"text":"Analysts at Citi said high-frequency data pointed to “weak” activity including a slowdown in cement operations and cargo throughput, partly a result of disruption caused by typhoons."}],[{"start":176.3,"text":"Industrial output and consumer spending both slowed in July, while new bank loans fell by Rmb341bn ($51bn) that month from a year earlier, the largest such decline on record."}],[{"start":188.75,"text":"The lacklustre data helped to push yields on China’s 10-year government bonds to their lowest level in more than a year earlier this month, as the prospect of slowing growth pushed investors back into sovereign debt. Bond yields fall as prices rise."}],[{"start":204.95,"text":"As domestic growth has slowed, China’s economy has become increasingly dependent on exports."}],[{"start":211.54999999999998,"text":"“In 2024 and 2025 the share of growth coming from net exports rose to its highest levels since China joined the [World Trade Organization],” said Steven Barnett, an economics professor at the University of Hong Kong and former IMF official, in a recent note."}],[{"start":228.95,"text":"The economy grew at an annual rate of 4.7 per cent in the first half of 2026, in line with the government’s full-year target of 4.5 to 5 per cent. But second-quarter growth fell to 4.3 per cent."}],[{"start":243.7,"text":"Nevertheless, policymakers have signalled that any substantial stimulus is unlikely. William Sandlund"}],[{"start":250.64999999999998,"text":"Will inflation jump back above 3% in the euro area?"}],[{"start":253.95,"text":"As a hot and dry summer comes to a close in Europe, Tuesday’s August inflation data will set the scene for a widely expected quarter-point rate rise by the European Central Bank on September 10."}],[{"start":266.15,"text":"Economists polled by Reuters expect annual inflation to have jumped back to 3.2 per cent after falling to 2.9 per cent in July. A surge in oil prices of up to 19 per cent in August caused by the Iran war is seen as the key driver. But the hot weather has led to supply-chain disruption and high freight costs in Germany due to low water levels in the Rhine, adding another inflationary factor. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to hover well above the ECB’s medium-term target of 2 per cent, at 2.5 per cent."}],[{"start":300.09999999999997,"text":"Nomura analyst Andrzej Szczepaniak warned on Friday that annual inflation in August could have risen to as much as 3.5 per cent, which would be the fastest rate in almost three years. "}],[{"start":311.59999999999997,"text":"At the same time, GDP growth is holding up better than was expected a few months ago. Germany’s statistical office revised upwards its estimates for economic growth in recent quarters, with the rate in the second quarter this year up 0.1 percentage points to 0.3 per cent, putting the economy on track for its fastest expansion since 2022. "}],[{"start":335.09999999999997,"text":"Traders in swaps markets are taking almost as a given a 0.25 percentage point rate rise by the ECB next month, pricing in a probability of more than 95 per cent. It would be the second such raise this year but may not mark the end of the cycle. “There are clear risks of further rate hikes beyond September,” Szczepaniak wrote to clients. Olaf Storbeck"}],[{"start":363.49999999999994,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1788097972_5172.mp3"}