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Will South Korea follow through on $350bn deal with Trump?

Frustration builds in Washington one year after agreement sealed
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{"text":[[{"start":8.92,"text":"Almost a year on from South Korea agreeing with US President Donald Trump to invest $350bn in the US, no money has yet been committed — fuelling irritation in Washington and alarm in Seoul."}],[{"start":22.48,"text":"There has been speculation in Korean media of deals — including a gas-fired power project in Texas and nuclear power plants — but authorities in Seoul have been quick to damp it."}],[{"start":33.441,"text":"“Regarding US investment, neither the specific investment destinations and timing of their announcement, nor the amount and timing of the first remittance, have been finalised,” the Blue House said this week."}],[{"start":44.488,"text":"One US source with knowledge of the situation said Seoul needed to “get a move on” or risk Trump lashing out. Another suggested frustration over the investment delays was partly behind Trump’s decision last month to single out South Korea over its lack of support for the US campaign against Iran."}],[{"start":62.2,"text":"“There has been significant frustration building within the US government, particularly as Korea’s progress has looked slow next to Japan’s successive tranches of investment announcements,” said Jennifer Lee, a Washington-based partner at The Asia Group."}],[{"start":76.04,"text":"The commitment came as part of last year’s agreement to reduce Trump’s tariffs on South Korean goods from a threatened level of 25 per cent to 15 per cent. Seoul also agreed to invest $150bn in shipbuilding and $200bn in strategic industries, with outlay capped at $20bn a year."}],[{"start":94.9,"text":"Japan agreed to invest $550bn under a similar deal, but has no annual cap and has moved faster, announcing projects including a $33bn gas-fired power plant in Ohio and up to $40bn of small modular nuclear reactors in Tennessee and Alabama."}],[{"start":112.56,"text":"Trump has framed such investment commitments transactionally, previously describing Korea’s $350bn as money that would be paid “up front”, while his trade adviser Peter Navarro called the Japan deal “essentially a blank cheque”."}],[{"start":126.56,"text":"In explaining the agreement to the Korean public last November, President Lee Jae Myung said investments would be made “only in commercially viable projects”."}],[{"start":135.44,"text":"Companies would not invest if the projects did not make sense, said Min Jeong-hun, a professor at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy."}],[{"start":142.72,"text":"“They simply won’t. Korea has no choice but to be cautious,” he said. “President Trump wants to see progress quickly. The positions are different.”"}],[{"start":152.28,"text":"Korean companies were also rattled by last September’s raid by US immigration agents on a Hyundai-LG Energy Solution battery plant in Georgia. In the immediate aftermath, President Lee warned it could make them “very hesitant” about investing in the US."}],[{"start":166.66,"text":"The Asia Group’s Lee agreed there was “a real gap” between the two governments’ interpretations of what was agreed, with Washington seeking larger investments in individual projects and greater influence over their selection."}],[{"start":179.6,"text":"Washington has also pushed for investment in advanced memory chip production in the US by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Such demands are sensitive for Seoul given the strategic importance of the industry and the chipmakers’ large existing investment commitments at home."}],[{"start":194.6,"text":"Shipbuilding, by contrast, is one area in which Seoul may have some leverage. The US accounts for just 0.2 per cent of global commercial tonnage, while Korea is the world’s second-largest shipbuilder behind China. Trump’s plans to revive US shipbuilding envisage Korean technology and expertise being brought to American shipyards."}],[{"start":213.96,"text":"“My impression is that Trump wants large-scale investment that he can sell as a victory for his transactional approach to relations with allies,” said Ramón Pacheco Pardo of King’s College London."}],[{"start":225.64,"text":"Some experts argue Seoul has compounded its difficulties by waiting. “It’s critical for Korea to announce an initial investment project,” said Troy Stangarone of the Korea Economic Institute of America."}],[{"start":236.32,"text":"“In delaying, Korea risks creating a perception with the administration that it is trying to get out of its commitment.”"}],[{"start":244.191,"text":"November’s US midterms may add extra pressure. “From Trump’s perspective, investment in the US must take place so that he can leverage it for his campaign,” said Park Won Gon, a professor at Ewha Womans University."}],[{"start":256.76,"text":"The investment dispute has become entangled with other aspects of the US-Korea relationship."}],[{"start":261.32,"text":"On August 16, Trump ordered a reduction in the scale of Ulchi Freedom Shield, an annual military exercise aimed at deterring North Korea. The following day, the US president said: “We have 39,000 soldiers over there guarding you from Kim Jong Un . . . and you’re not going to help us on a very easy military operation in Iran, that’s strange.”"}],[{"start":283.22,"text":"A separate five-day US-South Korea-Japan military exercise did begin this week as planned, however, with no reported changes to its scope or length."}],[{"start":292.24,"text":"Seoul says it is considering ways to assist the US in Iran. However, Iran’s foreign ministry warned on Monday that South Korean participation in operations in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz could have “serious consequences”."}],[{"start":304.72,"text":"Stangarone, though, warned that involvement in Hormuz may not help. “Announcing a deployment is unlikely to buy Korea any leeway on the investment issue,” he said. “This is a [US] administration that looks to maximise its gains.”"}],[{"start":317.4,"text":"For further leverage, Trump could also “go back” on Washington’s agreement last year to support Seoul’s plans to acquire nuclear-powered submarines, or threaten to pull out troops from Korea, said Pacheco Pardo."}],[{"start":328.72,"text":"While he said the “fundamentals” of the US-Korean alliance were strong, he added, “relations will remain rocky as long as Trump remains in office, given his views on allies”."}],[{"start":338.12,"text":"Additional reporting by Kang Buseong"}],[{"start":345.36,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1789025342_6341.mp3"}

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