{"text":[[{"start":7.92,"text":"Sandwiched between warnings about “communism in America” and a defence of the Iran war, Donald Trump on Wednesday made an extraordinary offer to the American public."}],[{"start":17.6,"text":"Vote for Republicans, he told the party faithful at their midterms convention in Dallas, and you will each receive a $5,000 payment from the US government."}],[{"start":27.4,"text":"“We’ll call it the Trump dividend,” the president declared to applause from the crowd."}],[{"start":32.24,"text":"Politically, the offer smacked of desperation in the face of likely defeats in the midterm elections; economically, it would be extremely risky in an inflationary environment where borrowing costs are rising and the public debt has hit $40tn; and practically, it stands little chance of happening, given that it would need congressional approval."}],[{"start":52.36,"text":"Nonetheless, Trump’s promise is inescapably at the heart of the midterms campaign, a brazen gamble that could change the dynamic of the race."}],[{"start":60.72,"text":"Do Republicans support the payout?"}],[{"start":63.24,"text":"Trump’s proposal quickly generated a backlash among prominent Republican critics. “Some of us think dependency is evil & soul-sucking in all its forms,” the staunchly conservative Texas Republican Chip Roy posted on Thursday morning. The Congress member earlier noted “government spending, subsidies and meddling have caused all of these things to be more expensive”."}],[{"start":85.64,"text":"Marjorie Taylor Greene, the former Congress member from Georgia who used to be a close Trump ally but has since turned against him, was more brutal. “No matter what party you vote for you get socialism,” she wrote on X."}],[{"start":98.2,"text":"But others embraced the offer. “I will get a bill ready so that we can get the Trump dividend passed immediately after the November 3rd election . . . because Republicans (and America) will win!” Bernie Moreno, the Republican Ohio senator, posted on Wednesday night."}],[{"start":117.96,"text":"Vice-president JD Vance insisted it was not a “controversial idea” during an interview with Fox News on Wednesday night. “It’s actually the president of the United States saying, we’re all working together,” he said. “We’re all on the same team. And if we continue to create wealth, that wealth is going to go back to the American people.”"}],[{"start":133.04,"text":"How does the ‘dividend’ work?"}],[{"start":134.76,"text":"Trump did not offer many specifics about his “dividend”, nor did the White House. But the president did say the $5,000 payout would go to every “adult citizen” if the Republicans win the midterm elections."}],[{"start":147.16,"text":"The “only condition”, he warned, was that the money would have to be spent in America. “We don’t want you going to Canada to spend the money. We don’t want you going to China, to Germany,” he said. He did not explain how this would be enforced."}],[{"start":161.08,"text":"Trump did not set any eligibility criteria for the payments, nor did he say how or whether the cost would be offset. If enacted, such a sweeping payout would be far larger than the pandemic stimulus cheques issued by the US in his first term and during the early months of Joe Biden’s presidency."}],[{"start":178.72,"text":"Has Trump made payout pledges before?"}],[{"start":181.16,"text":"Trump has made a number of cash payout promises during his second term."}],[{"start":185.28,"text":"Early on, he vowed to refund Americans for the money saved by Elon Musk’s so-called Department of Government Efficiency in its attempt to slash federal spending."}],[{"start":194.8,"text":"Trump has repeatedly said he would offer payments to Americans from the billions of dollars generated from the tariffs he has imposed on imports from trading partners around the world."}],[{"start":204.72,"text":"None of these promises have been fulfilled. The White House has not developed any concrete proposals to present to Congress, and lawmakers, even Republicans, have not embraced them."}],[{"start":215.04,"text":"How would the payout affect the US economy?"}],[{"start":217.88,"text":"If fully implemented immediately after the midterm elections, the economic impact of Trump’s promise would be huge and potentially very disruptive."}],[{"start":226,"text":"It would amount to a cash infusion of more than $1tn into the world’s largest economy."}],[{"start":231.16,"text":"Such a massive, one-off increase in household spending power would also defy financial and economic logic. Normally such sweeping money transfers from the government are reserved for economic emergencies, such as a deep recession, a financial crisis or a pandemic, to boost demand."}],[{"start":247.84,"text":"In this case, the US economy is suffering from high inflation, rising energy prices and increasing borrowing costs, and the Federal Reserve is considering whether to raise rates to stifle demand and ease those price pressures."}],[{"start":260.72,"text":"“The result [of the $5,000 plan] would be a huge spike in the deficit and almost certainly in the inflation rate,” Marc Goldwein, senior policy director at the non-partisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, wrote on X on Thursday."}],[{"start":274.64,"text":"Is Trump’s offer legal?"}],[{"start":276.44,"text":"If Trump were to issue $5,000 payments by executive order, with the US Treasury sending cheques or wiring the money directly to Americans unilaterally, the plan would almost certainly be challenged as unconstitutional because Congress must approve government spending."}],[{"start":290.88,"text":"This means Trump would need the approval of lawmakers, which could be a very high hurdle."}],[{"start":295.88,"text":"Most Democrats would likely oppose the payments as bad policy and a shameless political bribe, while Republicans would likely be split. While many members of Trump’s party would fall in line, a number of others who are more conservative on government spending would try to block it."}],[{"start":314.12,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1789181369_5611.mp3"}