{"text":[[{"start":13.04,"text":"All eyes in Japan will be on manufacturing and services purchasing managers’ indices due for release on Thursday, as investors mull how aggressively the Bank of Japan will press ahead with interest rate rises and whether it will stay ahead of the curve in containing inflation and propping up the yen."}],[{"start":29.12,"text":"Ambiguous messaging from the central bank over the past week has left some analysts guessing that the next rate rise could come as soon as October; others suspect December is more likely. BoJ governor Kazuo Ueda said that each policy meeting would discuss tightening and that no timetable had been set."}],[{"start":47.632,"text":"The stakes are high. On Friday, the BoJ lifted its policy rate by a quarter point to 1.25 per cent, its highest in 31 years, arguing that there was a rising risk that inflation could overshoot the central bank’s 2 per cent target."}],[{"start":63.2,"text":"That risk, said Ueda, was being propelled higher by the US war in Iran, as high oil and commodity prices continued to expose Japan’s vulnerability as a major importer with a weak currency. The PMIs will offer the first post-meeting signal of whether Ueda’s fears of an overshoot are supported by the data."}],[{"start":82.426,"text":"In August, Japan’s manufacturing PMI was 54.9 points, marking the eighth consecutive month of expansion in factory activity — any reading above 50 marks expansion rather than contraction. The services PMI also rose in August, to 52.5 points."}],[{"start":98.821,"text":"Japanese companies are winning new export orders and business sentiment is improving. But output prices rose at an annual pace of 7.6 per cent in August, as companies passed on rising import costs. Leo Lewis"}],[{"start":111.92,"text":"How robust is Eurozone growth?"}],[{"start":114.822,"text":"In spite of a 40 per cent surge in oil prices since early July, the Eurozone economy held up better than most analysts expected during the summer."}],[{"start":123.423,"text":"After the European Central Bank lifted its growth forecasts by 0.1 percentage points to 0.9 per cent in 2026 and by 0.2 points to 1.4 per cent next year, closely watched purchasing managers’ indices from S&P Global on Wednesday are expected to underscore the economy’s resilience."}],[{"start":142.48,"text":"Economists polled by Reuters expect the manufacturing PMI to repeat the August reading of 52.7 points, well into expansionary territory and the highest level in 51 months. The Services PMI is expected to have fallen slightly by 0.1 points to 51.5 points, still signalling healthy expansion."}],[{"start":165.265,"text":"Economists at Société Générale argue that growth momentum in the Eurozone is higher than the headline data suggests, as GDP numbers are distorted by frequent and big revisions to Irish data."}],[{"start":177.201,"text":"“Excluding Ireland provides a clearer view of underlying momentum,” they argued in a recent note, adding that, from that perspective, the region’s economy would grow by 1.2 per cent this year and 1.1 per cent in 2027."}],[{"start":191.52,"text":"This, they added, suggests “a gradual acceleration and growth above estimated potential”, despite a drought over the summer that disrupted waterborne transport and hit harvests. Olaf Storbeck"}],[{"start":201.2,"text":"Are UK businesses weathering the Iran war?"}],[{"start":205.44,"text":"UK investors will also look to purchasing managers’ indices next week, for any indication that a difficult geopolitical backdrop and the upcoming Budget are weighing on business confidence."}],[{"start":217.2,"text":"Economists polled by Bloomberg expect S&P Global’s composite purchasing managers’ index, a measure of activity across manufacturing and services, to fall to 52 points in September from 52.5 in August, still above the 50-point mark separating expansion from contraction."}],[{"start":233.92,"text":"Ellie Henderson, economist at Investec, expects the index to remain above the 50-point threshold, supported by companies working through backlogs of existing orders."}],[{"start":244.56,"text":"However, she expects business sentiment to have deteriorated in September following the intensification of the Iran war. Oil and natural gas prices have risen sharply over the past two weeks, despite retreating somewhat in recent days."}],[{"start":259.52,"text":"Higher energy prices and elevated borrowing costs are also complicating the task facing chancellor John Healey as he prepares to present his first Budget on October 28."}],[{"start":268,"text":"The two factors are expected to have eroded the government’s fiscal headroom — the margin by which it is forecast to meet its key rule of balancing the current budget, excluding capital investment, by 2029-30. If so, it raises the prospect of further tax increases."}],[{"start":284.48,"text":"So far, both business and consumer confidence have improved following the change in prime minister from Sir Keir Starmer to Andy Burnham, who has enjoyed stronger public support."}],[{"start":293.308,"text":"September’s GfK consumer confidence index, to be published on Friday, will give an indication of whether the new prime minister’s honeymoon is beginning to fade. Bloomberg’s poll of economists suggests that this is the case, with the index seen edging down from August. Valentina Romei"}],[{"start":314.08,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1789910103_4381.mp3"}