{"text":[[{"start":8.4,"text":"Home secretary Shabana Mahmood has scrapped her plan to make foreign care workers wait longer to win permanent UK residency — but the concession only softens the edges of what remains a radical reform of the immigration system."}],[{"start":22.32,"text":"Plans set out on Monday will delay settlement for about half a million people already in the UK, the Home Office estimates."}],[{"start":28.96,"text":"It will create a new class of people whose status is essentially temporary — with refugees facing waits of up to 30 years if they arrive by unauthorised routes."}],[{"start":38.52,"text":"It remains unclear whether the reforms will bring the fiscal benefits claimed."}],[{"start":42.96,"text":"What does this mean for migrants, other than care workers, who are working in the UK?"}],[{"start":47.44,"text":"Under the plans, skilled workers with earnings below £50,270 will now face a 10-year wait for permanent residency, as will their dependants — incurring visa fees running into tens of thousands of pounds. This group is estimated to number almost a quarter of a million people."}],[{"start":64.24,"text":"Immigration lawyers say that professionals in sectors such as architecture, accountancy and engineering will be affected — and that their employers may struggle to keep them on, as they have not budgeted for ongoing visa fees."}],[{"start":75.28,"text":"“We will definitely have clients in that position,” said Katie Newbury, partner at law firm Kingsley Napley."}],[{"start":81.56,"text":"However, high earners and their employers are potential winners from the reforms, with those in the top tax bracket able to gain the right to live indefinitely in the UK after three years — down from the current five."}],[{"start":93.6,"text":"High earners’ partners, though, will not always be able to settle at the same time, and it remains unclear what the new rules mean for children."}],[{"start":100.48,"text":"Will this deter people from coming to the UK?"}],[{"start":103.48,"text":"International students in particular could face bigger barriers to settling in the UK in future, as the government has scrapped the “long residence” route."}],[{"start":111.32,"text":"That had allowed them to qualify for permanent residency after 10 years, counting time spent on temporary study and graduate visas."}],[{"start":119.04,"text":"Because visa rules are already much tougher than in the past, many workers who come to the UK in future will be higher-rate taxpayers able to settle after five years, said Marley Morris, associate director at the think-tank IPPR."}],[{"start":131.64,"text":"However, even the top earners the government wants to attract to the UK may be deterred by uncertainty over the status of family members, lawyers said."}],[{"start":140.68,"text":"The government’s revised plans now leave open a path to settlement for non-working partners, provided that their joint household income is high enough."}],[{"start":149.6,"text":"Children who turn 18 while their parents are waiting for settlement will be on the same track — meaning they may be unable to leave home or attend a UK university on the lower home fees available to permanent residents."}],[{"start":162.2,"text":"Zeena Luchowa, partner at the law firm Laura Devine, said she had already seen “senior individuals” change their minds about coming to the UK halfway through the process because of the past year’s uncertainty over the reforms."}],[{"start":176.04,"text":"Will the reforms reduce unauthorised migration?"}],[{"start":179.84,"text":"That remains to be seen. The new rules make it harder for many migrants who are granted refugee status to achieve the long-term right to remain in the country, particularly if they arrive via small boats."}],[{"start":191.12,"text":"That could reduce the incentive for migrants to attempt “small boat” crossings from France."}],[{"start":196.36,"text":"Refugees who do not come to the UK as part of a formal government resettlement scheme will need to wait 20 years for settlement, though this can be shortened to 10 years if they enter “sustained” work or study. The clock will only start once work or study commences."}],[{"start":211.54,"text":"Those who try to circumvent UK border controls, for example arriving by small boats, will have to wait an additional 10 years. Arrivals by small boats are already down more than 40 per cent so far in 2026, partly due to greater co-operation between Britain and France."}],[{"start":227.68,"text":"What will the reforms achieve?"}],[{"start":230.172,"text":"The UK estimates that the reforms will cut the benefits bill by billions. But the Home Office has not published an impact assessment."}],[{"start":237.48,"text":"Analysts say claims of big fiscal gains were always overblown, even before the concession to care workers seen as the biggest potential risk to taxpayers."}],[{"start":246.32,"text":"This is because, although the reforms delay the point at which people can claim working-age benefits, the biggest fiscal costs of migration come later, as migrants’ children go through school and as people retire."}],[{"start":256.48,"text":"The Home Office has acknowledged that the overall fiscal impact of the reforms will depend on whether they end up deterring or attracting top earners, and on the incentives they create for refugees and other low-paid migrants to earn more."}],[{"start":270.32,"text":"Some skilled workers will now find it harder to move to a better-paid job if they rely on employers sponsoring a visa."}],[{"start":276.88,"text":"Do the reforms signal a change of political direction by Andy Burnham?"}],[{"start":281.08,"text":"The prime minister has already softened the government’s position on immigration: he said on Sunday it was “difficult to say” if migration was now “too high or too low”."}],[{"start":290.24,"text":"Mahmood also hinted that she may support a change in direction, saying on Tuesday that the government had promised to get migration down “and we have”."}],[{"start":298.32,"text":"Burnham has appeared open to discussing the return of freedom of movement with the EU, although not until after the next general election."}],[{"start":305.32,"text":"Nigel Farage’s anti-immigration Reform UK has slipped behind Labour and the Conservatives in the polls, having led for much of this parliament."}],[{"start":313.68,"text":"Even so, the combined vote of Reform and the far-right anti-immigration Restore UK still puts them close to Labour in the polls."}],[{"start":321.32,"text":"That suggests that, if Burnham believes the salience of immigration has waned for voters, he is taking something of a gamble."}],[{"start":328.6,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1793780761_6817.mp3"}