World ‘virtually certain’ to exceed average 1.5C of warming in 2026, EU agency says

{"text":[[{"start":9.84,"text":"The global average temperature this year is “virtually certain” to reach more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, Europe’s Earth observation agency said, ahead of the UN meeting of negotiators and world leaders in Turkey next week."}],[{"start":25.073,"text":"The threshold was also expected to be breached over the four-year average period from 2023 to 2026, showing how sustained levels of global warming had become, the Copernicus agency said. This is distinct from the limit enshrined in the 2015 Paris Agreement, which is measured over at least two decades."}],[{"start":45.6,"text":"Last month was the warmest October on record globally, with an average global air temperature 1.75C above pre-industrial levels, and was the third consecutive month to exceed 1.5C."}],[{"start":58.96,"text":"“October has continued the pattern of remarkable global warmth, with record global and surface ocean temperatures,” said Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts."}],[{"start":69.928,"text":"While river flows in central and eastern Europe, including the Rhine, Danube and Vistula, remained “exceptionally” low, in contrast several countries, including the UK, Ireland, Spain, Greece and Turkey, had suffered heavy rainfall and flooding."}],[{"start":85.68,"text":"Sea surface temperatures last month remained “exceptionally high”, reaching a record 20.95C outside polar regions."}],[{"start":94.177,"text":"Scientists say that exceeding the 1.5C threshold in the long run will trigger a range of planetary effects that may be difficult to reverse, including a drop in food production and more frequent and intense extreme weather events."}],[{"start":108.08,"text":"The UN climate change arm is spearheading a push at the COP31 summit in Antalya starting Monday for efforts to deal with the so-called “overshoot” of 1.5C and to ultimately return the warming of the atmosphere to below that level."}],[{"start":122.17,"text":"France said it would continue to push for a reference to the 1.5C goal in COP agreements, a spokesperson for the office of Monique Barbut, France’s environment minister, said on Friday."}],[{"start":133.12,"text":"“It’s true scientists say it will be extremely difficult — but each tenth of a degree above 1.5C triggers additional catastrophes . . . We base ourselves on the science, so we want to do everything for overshoot to be as limited as possible”."}],[{"start":133.62,"text":"Copernicus forecast that 2026 overall would be the second warmest year on record, with a 20 per cent chance it would tie or exceed 2024 as the warmest year."}],[{"start":134.12,"text":"The naturally occurring El Niño warming of the Pacific Ocean was continuing to intensify, with the anomaly in tropical ocean temperatures reaching an all-time high, the agency said."}],[{"start":134.62,"text":"The phenomenon raises temperatures and the risk of extreme weather worldwide in a cycle occurring every two to seven years on average. Its effects are expected to stretch into next year, with global air temperatures typically peaking in the months after sea temperatures in the Pacific start to reduce."}],[{"start":135.12,"text":"El Niño was “adding further heat to a climate already warmed by human activities”, said Burgess."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":136.56,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1794019762_6379.mp3"}