{"text":[[{"start":12.38,"text":"Investors will pay close attention to data due on Tuesday on prices in the US economy, after historic midterm elections in which a focus on affordability was a key part of Democrats’ campaign to take control of Congress."}],[{"start":25.92,"text":"October’s consumer price index report is unlikely to ease pressure on the Federal Reserve to curb inflation. Analysts at RBC Capital Markets expect core CPI to rise 0.3 per cent month over month — the report will not include an annual rate because of missing data during last year’s government shutdown."}],[{"start":44.56,"text":"“Core goods prices have been accelerating over the past three months with pressures building” across a wide range of sectors including clothing, footwear, toys and recreational goods, the analysts wrote."}],[{"start":57.2,"text":"While the report is unlikely to change expectations of a December rate rise from the Fed, it will provide some detail on whether inflation is slowing in categories including shelter and airfares, Citi’s analysts said. Jill R Shah"}],[{"start":70.195,"text":"Is the UK’s economic resilience holding up?"}],[{"start":73.8,"text":"Investors will watch UK GDP figures due on Thursday for confirmation that the economy’s unexpected resilience in the first half of the year continued into the third quarter."}],[{"start":83.4,"text":"Economists polled by Reuters expect growth of 0.7 per cent in the three months to September, despite forecasting a 0.1 per cent contraction in September itself. This follows expansions of 0.5 per cent in the second quarter and 0.6 per cent in the first."}],[{"start":100.12,"text":"The figures will offer fresh evidence of whether AI-related activity has continued to support growth in business services, a pillar of the economy’s resilience this year. They will also provide the first estimate of overall business investment in the third quarter, following unexpectedly strong growth earlier in the year."}],[{"start":117.48,"text":"The Bank of England’s estimate is also that the economy expanded 0.7 per cent in the third quarter, a sharp upgrade from the 0.1 per cent growth it had forecast as recently as July. It has raised its annual GDP growth forecasts to 1.6 per cent in 2026 and 1.3 per cent in 2027, up from previous projections of 1.1 per cent for both years."}],[{"start":139.9,"text":"The upgrades came despite the central bank raising its policy interest rate to 4 per cent this week and warning that inflation would peak at 5 per cent in the second quarter of 2027, squeezing household incomes and weighing on consumption."}],[{"start":154.68,"text":"The BoE attributed the economy’s stronger than expected performance to more resilient global growth, a boost from domestic AI-related activity and the possibility that the drag from earlier monetary policy tightening had faded more quickly than anticipated. Valentina Romei"}],[{"start":170.12,"text":"Are Chinese exports still powering ahead?"}],[{"start":174.22,"text":"China will release trade data for October on Tuesday, with the exporting powerhouse widely expected to post another hefty surplus due to a combination of weak domestic demand and globally competitive products."}],[{"start":186.96,"text":"The country is already on track to surpass last year’s record trade surplus of $1.2tn. Economists polled by Bloomberg expect the monthly surplus to hit $125.9bn in October, down slightly from September’s $133.5bn. Exports are seen rising 38 per cent while imports — driven higher by rising energy prices and more commodities imports — are expected to climb 35 per cent."}],[{"start":215.42,"text":"China’s ballooning trade surplus is due to both deflationary pressures at home, where weak domestic demand has contributed to falling prices, and the country’s globally competitive manufacturing base, supplying everything from components for AI data centres in the US to renewable energy capacity in the Philippines."}],[{"start":232.08,"text":"The export sector is one of the few bright spots for investors looking for opportunities in Chinese equities."}],[{"start":238.36,"text":"“If you’re an economist you may have a pessimistic view of China but if you’re an investor there are pockets to be interested in,” said Archie Hart, a portfolio manager at Ninety One. “It’s worth noting that the export sector is still growing at 25 per cent.”"}],[{"start":252.96,"text":"China’s currency has come under increasing scrutiny from trading partners such as the EU, which argue that it is undervalued, boosting export competitiveness."}],[{"start":262.2,"text":"The renminbi has been gradually appreciating over the past two years, which has helped allay some concerns."}],[{"start":268.2,"text":"But investors see signs that the trend may be about to reverse. This week, the People’s Bank of China raised the foreign reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions, in a move widely interpreted as an attempt by the central bank to temper the renminbi’s strength."}],[{"start":282.68,"text":"“The PBoC doesn’t want the yuan to be too strong,” said Hao Hong, chief investment officer at Lotus Asset Management. “The yuan appreciation is hitting a ceiling, it’s going to take a breather.” William Sandlund"}],[{"start":302.2,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1794192490_1414.mp3"}