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The humanoid robot Tesla is expected to unveil this month is an expert bit of stagecraft. Optimus, billed as the future of labour, is sci-fi come to life. But futuristic robots are not what investors in the electric carmaker care about. Production in China, progress at the new factory in Germany, material supply and rival vehicle sales all take precedence.
特斯拉预计将于本月推出一款人形机器人，该机器人将是舞台技巧方面的专家。擎天柱(Optimus)，被标榜为未来的劳动力，是科幻小说的化身。但未来机器人并不是这家电动汽车制造商的投资者所关心的。中国的生产、德国新工厂的进展、材料供应和竞争对手的汽车销售都是优先考虑的事项。
Tesla makes the most popular electric vehicle in the world. As more traditional carmakers enter the EV market this achievement becomes more impressive. Global demand for electric cars has kept pace with supply — thanks in no small part to Tesla’s ability to make them desirable. In the last quarter, its sales rose 42 per cent.
特斯拉制造了世界上最受欢迎的电动汽车。随着越来越多的传统汽车制造商进入电动汽车市场，这一成就变得更加瞩目。全球对电动汽车的需求一直与供应保持同步——这在很大程度上要归功于特斯拉(Tesla)让电动汽车变得受欢迎的能力。上季度，该公司销售额增长42%。
Over five years, the stock is up 1,200 per cent. That breeds investor loyalty. It might have lost about a quarter of its value in the year to date but it has avoided the 70 to 80 per cent price collapse that some tech stocks have suffered in the market rout.
5年来，该股上涨了1200%。这培养了投资者的忠诚度。今年迄今为止，该股市值可能已缩水约四分之一，但它避免了一些科技股在市场暴跌中遭受的70%至80%的暴跌。
Yet is hard to see what could lift the price back to last year’s high. A stock split in August, the company’s second in two years, did not help. Stock splits can be used to attract more retail investors by offering a lower entry price per share. But Tesla already has a strong base of retail investors who hold about 37 per cent of the stock, according to S&P Global data.
然而，很难看出是什么因素能将其股价推回去年的高点。今年8月，该公司进行了两年内的第二次股票分拆，这对公司没有任何帮助。股票分拆可以通过提供较低的每股入门价格来吸引更多散户投资者。但标普全球(S&P Global)的数据显示，特斯拉已经拥有强大的散户投资者基础，他们持有该公司约37%的股票。
Investors are right to be wary about the 60 times price-to-earnings ratio too — even if it has more than halved since November last year. It is more than ten times the size of larger, more established carmakers like Volkswagen. Even BYD, China’s electric car giant, trades at a far lower multiple. Musk fandom still accounts for a significant proportion of Tesla’s valuation.
投资者对60倍的市盈率保持警惕也是有道理的——尽管这一市盈率自去年11月以来已下降逾一半。它的规模是大众(Volkswagen)等更大、更成熟的汽车制造商的十倍以上。就连中国电动汽车巨头比亚迪(BYD)的市盈率也低得多。马斯克的粉丝仍然占特斯拉估值的很大一部分。
News about Optimus is expected to be released in Tesla’s upcoming artificial intelligence day. But Tesla’s ability to scale production and maintain profit will underpin the share price. The wild card is not robots but Twitter. Musk is still the largest investor in Tesla, though he has sold more than $15bn of shares to raise cash this year. If forced to go through with his deal to buy Twitter for $44bn he may be forced to sell more.
关于擎天柱的消息，预计将在特斯拉即将到来的人工智能日发布。但特斯拉扩大生产和维持利润的能力仍将支撑其股价。不确定因素不是机器人，而是Twitter。马斯克仍然是特斯拉的最大投资者，尽管他今年为了筹集现金，已经出售了超过150亿美元的股票。如果被迫完成440亿美元的Twitter收购，他可能会被迫出售更多资产。