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Some of the world’s cheapest equities are in Vietnam. The south-east Asian country’s benchmark index is trading at a its lowest valuation in a decade. That gives investors a reason to get serious about this long-overlooked market.
世界上一些最便宜的股票在越南。这个东南亚国家的基准指数正以十年来的最低估值交易。这让投资者有理由认真对待这个长期被忽视的市场。
A soaring dollar has left the Vietnam Stock Index down nearly 30 per cent this year, trading at less than 10 times forward earnings. It is one of the worst performing among regional peers. Its blue-chips include real estate and tech conglomerate Vingroup, which has fallen 37 per cent this year.
美元走高导致越南股指(Vietnam Stock Index)今年以来下跌近30%，预期市盈率不到10倍。它是地区同行中表现最差的银行之一。其蓝筹股包括房地产和科技集团Vingroup，该公司今年已下跌37%。
There is plenty of potential. The economy is expected to grow at the fastest pace in Asia this year. The population is growing and young. More than 70 per cent of Vietnamese people are under the age of 35. GDP per capita is just $3,694, less than one-third of China’s figure. This leaves ample room for growth.
有很大的潜力。预计今年的经济增长速度将是亚洲最快的。人口正在增长和年轻化。超过70%的越南人年龄在35岁以下。人均GDP只有3694美元，不到中国的三分之一。这为增长留下了充足的空间。
Vietnam has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the US-China trade war. US groups have moved suppliers to Vietnam to dodge US tariffs and blacklists for operating in China.
越南一直是中美贸易战的最大受益者之一。美国集团已将供应商转移到越南，以规避美国的关税和在华经营黑名单。
Apple already sources a proportion of its popular AirPods earphones from Vietnam. It is also testing watch and laptop production there. Exports to the US grew more than a quarter in the year to September, reflecting the shift. Pandemic lockdowns in China have reduced its manufacturing dominance.
苹果已经从越南采购了一部分颇受欢迎的AirPods耳机。该公司还在中国测试手表和笔记本电脑的生产。在截至9月份的一年里，中国对美出口增长逾四分之一，反映出这一转变。中国的疫情封锁削弱了其制造业的主导地位。
Vietnamese growth has been impressive. The economy expanded 13.7 per cent in the third quarter, after growth of 7.8 per cent in the previous quarter. As travel normalises globally, tourism, which accounts for about a tenth of the economy, should give those numbers a further boost. Vietnam’s quasi-socialist market economy has helped it rapidly slash its poverty rate from 17 per cent to below 5 per cent in the span of just 10 years.
越南的经济增长令人印象深刻。中国经济第三季度增长13.7%，而上一季度增长7.8%。随着全球旅游的正常化，占经济十分之一的旅游业应该会进一步提振这些数字。越南的准社会主义市场经济帮助该国在短短10年内迅速将贫困率从17%降至5%以下。
But it has downsides. Moving capital out of Vietnam is complicated. Exchange controls limit foreign currency outflows.
但它也有缺点。把资本转移出越南是很复杂的。外汇管制限制了外汇外流。
This has partly been why Vietnam has been the country of the future for much longer than investors have hoped. But at today’s valuations, the risks are attenuating.
这就是为什么越南成为未来之国的时间比投资者预期的要长得多。但以目前的估值来看，风险正在减弱。