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The easiest way to fly green? Take the train instead. Soon travellers in France will not have a choice. Domestic flights of two and a half hours or fewer will be outlawed under new emissions rules. But investors need not fear for Parisian airports owner ADP which has instead staked its future on international travel.
最简单的绿色飞行方式？用坐火车代替。很快，法国的旅行者将没有选择。根据新的排放规则，两个半小时或更短的国内航班将被取缔。但投资者不必担心巴黎机场的所有者巴黎机场集团(ADP)，该公司已将其未来押在国际旅行上。
Its shares blipped on to traders’ radars on Tuesday when Schiphol Group, the Amsterdam airport owner, sold its 3.9% ADP stake one-tenth below market prices. Its shares plummeted more than 12 per cent.
周二，当阿姆斯特丹机场所有者皇家史基浦集团(Schiphol Group)以低于市场价格十分之一的价格出售其3.9%的巴黎机场集团股份时，其股票进入了交易商的视野。其股价暴跌逾12%。
ADP owns and operates the important Charles de Gaulle and Orly airports in Paris. Traffic in the first nine months of this year remained about 15 per cent below 2019 levels. Lockdowns in China explain why lucrative Asia-Pacific routes remain far more subdued.
巴黎机场集团拥有并经营巴黎重要的戴高乐(Charles de Gaulle)机场和奥利(Orly)机场。今年前9个月的交通量仍比2019年的水平低约15%。中国的封锁解释了为什么利润丰厚的亚太航线仍然十分低迷。
As for the French domestic flight ban, that will be limited, says Henk Ombelet of consultancy Cirium. Only three routes will be affected in total, all from ADP’s Orly airport, which accounted for just 3 per cent of traffic in 2019.
咨询公司Cirium的亨克•奥伯莱(Henk Ombelet)说，至于法国国内航班禁令，将是有限的。总共只有3条航线会受到影响，都是来自巴黎机场集团的奥利机场，该机场在2019年只占到3%的交通量。
ADP shares had been cruising. Over the past two years it had outpaced the MSCI all world transport infrastructure sector index. Before Tuesday’s drop its enterprise value to ebitda ratio traded at a 30 per cent premium to listed regional rivals. Its multiple has descended to a more palatable 12 times.
巴黎机场集团的股价一直在上升。在过去两年里，它超过了明晟(MSCI)全球运输基础设施行业指数。在周二的下跌之前，其企业价值倍数比上市的区域竞争对手高出30%。其倍数已经降至较为可接受的12倍。
The Paris group’s lower reliance on European travellers explains the remaining premium. At Spanish rival Aena 90 per cent of passengers originate from the continent. That means more exposure to the local economic cycle and to stricter EU environmental rules for flights.
巴黎机场集团对欧洲旅客的依赖性较低，这也是剩余溢价的原因。在西班牙的竞争对手西班牙机场管理局(Aena)，90%的乘客来自欧洲大陆。这意味着其更容易受到当地经济周期和欧盟更严格的航班环境规则的影响。
Meanwhile, ADP’s stakes in Turkish and Indian airport operators diversify its revenues further with some potential for growth; a third of profits will come from outside of Europe by 2025, thinks Jefferies, up from a quarter. ADP shrewdly managed to buy these stakes during a period of low interest rates.
同时，巴黎机场集团在土耳其和印度机场运营商的股份使其收入进一步多样化，并具有一定的增长潜力；杰富瑞(Jefferies)认为，到2025年，三分之一的利润将来自欧洲以外的地区，而之前只有四分之一。巴黎机场集团精明地在低利率时期购买了这些股份。
On analyst estimates, ADP offers a free cash flow yield of 3 per cent annually on average out to 2025. That still beats that from French government debt. This air pocket drop offers an opportunity for those anticipating a recovery in global air travel next year.
根据分析师的估计，巴黎机场集团在2025年之前平均每年产出3%的自由现金流收益。这仍然比法国政府债务的收益率高。此次下降为那些预测明年全球航空旅行复苏的人提供了一个机会。