Global macro investors make bets on countries, riding the currents of exchange rates and interest rates. Their trades often require taking a much longer-term view than the typical investor, with an eye not only to a country’s monetary and fiscal policy, but often to its politics and institutions.
全球宏观投资者通过押注国家、驾驭汇率和利率的波动进行投资。他们的交易通常需要比普通投资者采取更长远的视角，不仅关注一个国家的货币和财政政策，还常常关注其政治和制度。
Few have been as successful as Ray Dalio, who founded Bridgewater Associates five decades ago. In his latest book, How Countries Go Broke, Dalio purports to lay bare the key elements of his uber-profitable investing strategy, especially how to look for the risks of once-in-a-generation shifts that most investors — and policymakers — are oblivious to until is it is too late.
鲜有人能像瑞•达利欧(Ray Dalio)那样成功，他在五十年前创立了桥水基金(Bridgewater Associates)。在其最新著作《国家如何破产》(How Countries Go Broke)中，达利欧旨在揭示其高盈利投资策略的关键要素，尤其是如何发掘那些大多数投资者和政策制定者直到为时已晚才意识到的、一代人仅有一次的重大转变的风险。
Critically, he emphasises the importance of looking at very long historical data sets in order to be able to distinguish epoch waves, sometimes a century long — including what he calls the “Big Debt Cycle” — from typical cyclical business ups and downs which are smaller and less consequential.
尤为关键的是，他强调研究极长期历史数据的重要性，以便能够区分有时长达一个世纪的“时代浪潮”（包括他所谓的“大债务周期”）与较短且影响较小的一般商业周期波动。