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The mass adoption of ChatGPT is yet to have a big disruptive impact on US jobs, contradicting claims by chief executives and tech bosses that artificial intelligence is already upending labour markets.
ChatGPT 的大规模采用尚未对美国就业产生显著的颠覆性影响，这与首席执行官和科技业高管所声称“人工智能已在颠覆劳动力市场”的说法相矛盾。
Research from economists at the Yale University Budget Lab and the Brookings Institution think-tank indicates that, since OpenAI launched its popular chatbot in November 2022, generative AI has not had a more dramatic effect on employment than earlier technological breakthroughs.
耶鲁大学预算实验室(Yale University Budget Lab)与布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)的经济学家研究显示，自OpenAI于2022年11月推出广受欢迎的聊天机器人以来，生成式人工智能对就业的影响并未比以往的技术突破更为显著。
The research, based on an analysis of official data on the labour market and figures from the tech industry on usage and exposure to AI, also finds little evidence that the tools are putting people out of work.
这项研究基于对劳动力市场官方数据以及科技行业有关人工智能使用情况和接触程度的数据的分析，同时也几乎没有发现这些工具正在让人们失业的证据。
The study follows widespread concern that generative AI will spark job losses — and even the disappearance of certain types of work — amid a US labour market that has recently weakened.
在美国劳动力市场近期走弱之际，人们普遍担心生成式人工智能将引发失业，甚至使某些类型的工作消失；该研究正是在这种担忧背景下开展的。
“Despite how quickly AI technology has progressed, the labour market over the past three years has been a story of continuity over change,” said Molly Kinder, a senior fellow at Brookings who co-authored the research. “We are not in an economy-wide jobs apocalypse right now, it’s mostly stable. That should be a reassuring message to an anxious public.”
“尽管人工智能技术发展迅速，过去三年的劳动力市场总体上依然是延续多于变化的故事，”布鲁金斯学会的高级研究员、该研究的合著者莫莉•金德尔(Molly Kinder)说。“我们现在并未处于一场席卷整个经济的就业‘末日’，整体上仍较为稳定。这应能给焦虑的公众带来些许安慰。”
Martha Gimbel, the co-author who heads the Yale Budget Lab, said: “The labour market doesn’t feel great, so it feels correct that AI is taking people’s jobs. But we’ve looked at this many, many different ways, and we really cannot find any sign that this is happening.”
合著者、耶鲁预算实验室(Yale Budget Lab)负责人玛莎•金贝尔(Martha Gimbel)表示：“劳动力市场的状况并不理想，所以人们会觉得人工智能正在夺走工作，这种感觉似乎也说得通。但我们从许多不同角度反复研究，确实找不到任何正在发生这种情况的迹象。”
While the analysis suggests ChatGPT — one of the most widely-used text-based forms of generative AI — is rapidly changing the mix of occupations on offer to tech workers, it is not shifting the composition of jobs throughout the entire US economy at a much swifter pace than the arrival of computers and the internet.
尽管分析显示，ChatGPT——最广泛使用的文本类生成式人工智能之一——正迅速改变科技从业者可供选择的职业构成，但它并未使整个美国经济的就业结构变化速度明显快于当年计算机和互联网到来时的速度。
“AI has, so far, not defied gravity,” said Kinder. “We are in very early days of companies figuring out how to redesign themselves with this technology.”
“到目前为止，人工智能并没有违背重力，”金德尔说。“我们仍处于各家公司探索如何借助这项技术重塑自身的非常早期阶段。”
The research, which was co-authored with the Yale Budget Lab’s Joshua Kendall and Maddie Lee, also finds limited evidence that graduates in the world’s largest economy have struggled to find work because of the rise of generative AI.
这项研究由耶鲁预算实验室的约书亚•肯德尔(Joshua Kendall)和玛迪•李(Maddie Lee)共同署名。研究还发现的证据有限，表明在全球最大的经济体中，毕业生并未因为生成式AI的兴起而很难找到工作。
The unemployment rate for those with a bachelor’s degree aged 20-24 soared to 9.3 per cent in August, more than double the 4.4 per cent rate recorded in April. But there is little to distinguish the positions taken by those in the 20-24 age range, compared with those on offer from older graduates aged 25-29.
8月份，20—24岁本科毕业生的失业率飙升至9.3%，是4月份4.4%的两倍多。但与25—29岁的年长毕业生相比，20—24岁人群可获得的职位与年长毕业生提供的职位几乎没有差别。
The lack of change in the occupational mix suggests the difficulties of finding work for those just out of college has little to do with technological change.
职业结构缺乏变化这一事实表明，应届大学毕业生求职难与技术变革关系不大。
The findings conflict with assertions from chief executives and tech bosses that generative AI is swiftly reshaping the labour market.
这些发现与各大公司首席执行官和科技高管宣称“生成式人工智能正迅速重塑劳动力市场”的说法相矛盾。
A new report from the British Standards Institution, which surveyed more than 850 business leaders across eight countries and analysed company annual reports, found 39 per cent of those polled said AI had led them to cut entry-level roles. Another 43 per cent said they were expecting further reductions in a year.
英国标准协会(British Standards Institution)发布的一份新报告在对8个国家的850多名企业领导者进行调查并分析公司年度报告后发现，39%的受访者表示，人工智能已导致他们削减初级岗位；另有43%表示预计在一年内将进一步削减。
Dario Amodei, chief executive of AI start-up Anthropic, in May warned of the mass elimination of roles in fields such as law, consulting and finance, and claimed the technology had the potential to wipe out half of entry-level jobs. In an interview with Axios, he said unemployment would jump to 10-20 per cent in the next five years — up from a current level of 4.3 per cent.
人工智能初创公司Anthropic的首席执行官达里奥•阿莫迪(Dario Amodei)在5月警告称，法律、咨询和金融等领域的大量岗位将被淘汰，并表示这项技术可能会抹去一半的入门级职位。他在接受Axios采访时表示，失业率将在未来五年升至10%至20%，高于目前的4.3%。
Meanwhile, OpenAI chief Sam Altman has said AI would eliminate some job categories, such as customer service.
与此同时，OpenAI 首席执行官萨姆•奥尔特曼(Sam Altman)表示，人工智能将淘汰一些岗位类别，例如客服岗位。
Many economists, however, believe claims by CEOs and the tech industry are — at least on an economy-wide level — overblown.
然而，许多经济学家认为，CEO和科技行业的主张——至少在整个经济层面——被夸大了。
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“There is a lot of pressure on managers to do something with AI . . . and there is the hype that is contributing to it,” Daron Acemoglu, Nobel Prize-winning economist and professor of economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “But not many people are doing anything super creative with it yet.”
“管理者面临着要在人工智能上有所作为的巨大压力……而炒作也在推波助澜，”诺贝尔奖得主、麻省理工学院(Massachusetts Institute of Technology)经济学教授达龙•阿西莫格鲁(Daron Acemoglu)说。“但目前还没有多少人用它做出真正有创意的事情。”
Acemoglu added that AI companies were incentivised to drum up attention for their technologies to encourage companies to build the computing capacity they need to create bigger AI models.
阿西莫格鲁补充说，AI公司有动力为其技术造势，以促使各家公司建设打造更大型AI模型所需的计算能力。
A recent study from Goldman Sachs Research estimated that AI adoption could displace 6-7 per cent of the US workforce, but said the impact will probably be “transitory”.
高盛研究部(Goldman Sachs Research)近期的一项研究估算称，人工智能的采用可能会取代美国劳动力的6%至7%，但其影响很可能是“暂时的”。
The Yale Budget Lab intends to update their data every month.
耶鲁预算实验室打算每月更新其数据。
“It is an open question [whether or not AI will change the labour market] and we should be monitoring this,” said Gimbel. “But let’s not put the cart before the horse here.”
“[人工智能是否会改变劳动力市场]仍是一个悬而未决的问题，我们应该加以监测，”金贝尔说。“但别本末倒置。”