{"text":[[{"start":9.35,"text":"On May 7, millions of voters across Scotland, Wales and England go to the polls, choosing who runs large swaths of the UK and delivering what could be a serious blow to the future of Sir Keir Starmer as prime minister."}],[{"start":23.1,"text":"The elections will confirm the fracturing of Britain’s traditional two-party duopoly into a multi-party democracy: Labour and the Conservatives, which have wielded power at Westminster for decades, are expected to be hammered."}],[{"start":36.3,"text":"The Scottish parliament at Holyrood is up for grabs, with the governing Scottish National Party riding high in the polls and promising that it will use any new mandate to make a new push for independence."}],[{"start":48.55,"text":"Labour’s uninterrupted grip on the Welsh Senedd since it was created in 1999 is expected to be broken by Plaid Cymru and Reform UK, while Starmer’s party is also braced for heavy defeats in England, where more than 5,000 seats are up for election across 136 councils."}],[{"start":null,"text":"

"}],[{"start":67.19999999999999,"text":"Reform, the Greens, the SNP, Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats are all hoping to make gains at the expense of the two stricken “mainstream” parties, which are braced for electoral disaster."}],[{"start":80.69999999999999,"text":"This is what is at stake on Thursday."}],[{"start":null,"text":"

---

"}],[{"start":83.64999999999999,"text":"Starmer’s future"}],[{"start":85.35,"text":"Starmer is already deeply unpopular with voters — a YouGov survey found that 70 per cent think he is doing badly — and his handling of the Peter Mandelson affair has left many Labour MPs discussing when, not if, he will be ousted from Number 10."}],[{"start":102.1,"text":"If Labour does badly in Scotland, loses power in Wales and suffers heavy losses in the 2,500 or so council seats it is defending in England, then Starmer will be under renewed pressure to quit or set out a timetable for his departure."}],[{"start":118.5,"text":"But Starmer insists he will lead Labour into the next election and his MPs privately admit that they have no idea who would replace him or what alternative policy prospectus they might follow."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":130.15,"text":"Andy Burnham, Greater Manchester mayor, is not an MP and Angela Rayner, former deputy prime minister, is still in dispute with HM Revenue & Customs about her taxes. Wes Streeting, the Blairite health secretary, is unpopular with many on the soft left."}],[{"start":147.8,"text":"The fear among Starmer’s allies is that the party wakes up on May 8 feeling so punch drunk after a mammoth set of election defeats that things spiral out of control, with ministers potentially resigning and MPs calling for the prime minister to quit."}],[{"start":163,"text":"“It will be febrile,” admitted one cabinet minister. "}],[{"start":166.7,"text":"Another said: “I want Keir to stay but it may not be possible after May 7.” "}],[{"start":172.89999999999998,"text":"A party strategist said: “It’s one thing knowing you’re going to be punched on the nose — it’s another thing to see the blood running down your shirt.”"}],[{"start":null,"text":"

---

"}],[{"start":180.89999999999998,"text":"The other parties"}],[{"start":182.2,"text":"The other big loser on the night is expected to be Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch whose 1,364 council seats in England will come under attack, especially from Reform and the Lib Dems."}],[{"start":195.6,"text":"But Badenoch is popular with party members and donors and is therefore seen as safe in her post for now, even if the results are likely to confirm that the Tories remain a long way from regaining power at Westminster."}],[{"start":208.75,"text":"Nigel Farage’s Reform expects to win hundreds of seats, building on the party’s remarkable victories in last year’s local elections when it won 677 seats (41 per cent of the total) and gained control of 10 councils."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":225.25,"text":"Given that Reform holds only two of the English council seats up for grabs, the only way is up for Farage. But the party’s national poll ratings have fallen from the low-30s to the mid-20s in recent weeks: will the results be less stellar than some expected?"}],[{"start":241.05,"text":"Zack Polanski’s Greens are expected to be the other big winners on the night, with big advances expected across the UK, especially in urban areas where the party leader’s ecopopulism is decimating local Labour support."}],[{"start":255.60000000000002,"text":"Sir Ed Davey, the Lib Dem leader, has been criticised by some of his MPs for failing to take advantage of the fracturing political landscape: his party is fifth in UK opinion polls and failing to exploit the anti-establishment mood of the times."}],[{"start":271.6,"text":"However Davey insists that his party will make net gains on May 7 — for the eighth year in a row — and that the results will confirm that he is “a winner”."}],[{"start":null,"text":"

---

"}],[{"start":282.05,"text":"Different visions for Wales’s future"}],[{"start":284.7,"text":"The devolved government in Wales has been run by Labour since devolution in 1999 but that spell of success looks as if it is about to come to a crashing end. "}],[{"start":293.84999999999997,"text":"According to opinion polls, the largest party in the Senedd after May 7 will be either Plaid Cymru or Reform, two smaller parties that offer radically different visions for the future. "}],[{"start":305.24999999999994,"text":"Yet neither looks likely to win an outright majority in the newly expanded Senedd which will have 96 seats. "}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":312.3999999999999,"text":"Plaid Cymru has more options for partnership with small parties and could have to scrape together a coalition with both Labour and the Green Party to run Wales, according to polling by Survation. "}],[{"start":323.94999999999993,"text":"By contrast Reform could form a rightwing bloc with the Conservatives but still not reach the 49 seats needed for a majority, according to Survation."}],[{"start":332.79999999999995,"text":"Plaid Cymru is a progressive, pro-immigration nationalist party which has previously shored up a Labour-led administration from 2007 to 2011. Although it believes in a standalone Wales, it is not seeking a referendum on independence during a first term in office. "}],[{"start":348.54999999999995,"text":"By contrast Reform is vehemently anti-Welsh independence and is rightwing on most issues ranging from climate change to immigration. "}],[{"start":null,"text":"

---

"}],[{"start":357.29999999999995,"text":"Scottish independence"}],[{"start":359.34999999999997,"text":"John Swinney, the SNP leader and first minister, has raised the stakes in the Scottish parliamentary elections, saying a majority of 65 or more SNP MSPs would be a mandate for a second independence referendum."}],[{"start":373.34999999999997,"text":"Scotland’s proportional system was set up to prevent majority rule — the only time it happened, under Alex Salmond in 2011, preceded the 2014 referendum."}],[{"start":384.15,"text":"A good result for the SNP would be delivery of that elusive majority, reopening the constitutional question, even if the UK government has repeatedly said it would flatly reject any demand for another referendum."}],[{"start":398.84999999999997,"text":"The more likely scenario, in which the SNP dominates but falls short of a majority, would nonetheless allow Swinney to lead a minority administration relying on support from the independence-supporting Greens or unionist Lib Dems."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":412.99999999999994,"text":"But with the SNP in power for 19 years, a worse than expected result for Swinney, of about 50 seats, could allow unionist parties to gang up against him as first minister — though that would require Labour to work, at least tacitly, with Reform after a bitter campaign. Another intriguing possibility would be an improbable SNP-Labour coalition."}],[{"start":434.34999999999997,"text":"“It looks like the winners will be the SNP, even though their vote share will be down, as well as Reform, the Greens and the Lib Dems,” said Mark McGeoghegan of Ipsos. “Labour and the Tories look like being the big losers.”"}],[{"start":null,"text":"

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"}],[{"start":447.34999999999997,"text":"Labour under siege in London"}],[{"start":450.65,"text":"Sir Sadiq Khan, London’s Labour mayor, said his party risked being “stonked” on May 7 in a city that has long been a red stronghold: the party’s past three leaders have represented London seats and Khan has been mayor since 2016."}],[{"start":466.75,"text":"More than 6mn Londoners are eligible to vote, with all 32 London boroughs up for election. A total of 1,817 councillors will be elected, but Khan’s third term does not expire until 2028."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":480.75,"text":"Last time round Labour won 21 of the 32 councils, with the Conservatives winning some of the outlying suburban boroughs and the Lib Dems taking control in the prosperous south-west of the city."}],[{"start":492.25,"text":"But the picture after May 7 is expected to resemble a mosaic, with Labour red expected to be replaced by Reform turquoise in more white working-class areas on the eastern fringes of the city. "}],[{"start":504.4,"text":"The Greens have their sights set on winning in multicultural central boroughs such as Hackney and Islington, where campaigning on issues such as Gaza and rent controls is reaping dividends."}],[{"start":515.1,"text":"Meanwhile the Conservatives hope to retake their own town halls in Wandsworth and Westminster, while the Lib Dems could take Merton, adding to a sense that Labour is under siege on multiple fronts."}],[{"start":532.45,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1777958633_2593.mp3"}