Can Europe develop its own alternatives to US Tomahawks?

{"text":[[{"start":11.25,"text":"Donald Trump’s decision to cancel a planned deployment of long-range missiles to Germany has laid bare Europe’s glaring lack of a deterrent that features prominently in Vladimir Putin’s arsenal."}],[{"start":22.5,"text":"The Biden-era plan to deploy a battalion equipped with Tomahawk cruise missiles and Dark Eagle hypersonic weapons was designed to provide Europe with Deep Precision Strike (DPS) capabilities able to strike targets inside Russia or another foreign adversary. "}],[{"start":38.85,"text":"German defence minister Boris Pistorius said Trump’s decision to cancel the plan, which he insisted was not yet final, would be “very unfortunate and detrimental” to Germany and to Europe. It would mean that European capability gaps could “widen further”, he warned."}],[{"start":56.6,"text":"Here is a look at what DPS is and whether Europeans could develop it in the absence of US missiles."}],[{"start":63.15,"text":"What is DPS and why is it useful?"}],[{"start":66.1,"text":"DPS covers a broad range of missiles between 1,000-3,000km in range, with highly accurate targeting allowing them to hit and destroy specific buildings or even bombers preparing for take-off."}],[{"start":77.94999999999999,"text":"Military experts and defence officials consider DPS to be a critical part of any arsenal, for three reasons: First, the ability to threaten strategic infrastructure and deter the enemy from launching an attack. Second, to retaliate against aggressive actions without resorting to large-scale conflict or nuclear strikes. And third, during a conflict, to hit key enemy targets far beyond the frontline, such as air bases or missile silos."}],[{"start":104.74999999999999,"text":"“You want to be able to strike a Russian drone factory before they send 500 drones at us,” said a western military official. “Or a submarine before it even leaves the port.”"}],[{"start":null,"text":"

"}],[{"start":115.14999999999999,"text":"Ukrainian strikes on Russian airfields housing aircraft and drones used to bomb Kyiv are an example of DPS in action. US threats in 2022 to destroy critical Russian military assets using long-range missiles if Moscow were to use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine were credited with helping to convince Putin against such a move."}],[{"start":134.75,"text":"“[DPS] is a way to inflict pain in a crisis to a potential adversary, starting with Russia, from a distance,” said Camille Grand, secretary general of the Aerospace, Security, and Defence Industries Association for Europe. “It can really make an enormous difference . . . because it offers a conventional deterrence element.” "}],[{"start":155.3,"text":"“We’ve learned from the war in Ukraine and the war in Iran that the destruction of critical assets of the adversary or threatening them is in itself something that can be decisive in a conflict, or even to prevent a conflict,” he added."}],[{"start":168.4,"text":"Why does Europe not have DPS?"}],[{"start":171.75,"text":"Europe has neglected DPS in recent decades because of US assurances they would provide it, and for fear of provocation."}],[{"start":179.15,"text":"Since the cold war, the US has provided the primary means of conventional deterrence against any Russian attack on Europe, either from US launch sites or European-based missiles such as the now-cancelled Tomahawk deployment. "}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":194.9,"text":"In addition, the 1987 Moscow-Washington Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty — which banned missiles with ranges between 500km and 5,500km — curbed interest in DPS development, even as both sides accused each other of breaching the rules before its 2019 expiry."}],[{"start":214.45000000000002,"text":"“It’s not because we’re stupid that we don’t have [DPS], but because we’ve been very cautious in not developing ground-based systems that would be in violation of the INF Treaty,” said Grand."}],[{"start":225.45000000000002,"text":"Even if Trump were to reverse course, there is a limited supply of such weapons given the massive firing rates involved in the Iran war and the wider US pivot to the Asia-Pacific. "}],[{"start":236.55,"text":"Germany and Spain have Taurus cruise missiles with a range of around 500km. France and the UK have jointly developed Scalp/Storm Shadow cruise missiles with a similar range. But stocks of all of these are low. "}],[{"start":250.60000000000002,"text":"They are all air-launched, meaning that Nato would have to gain air superiority over Russia — a task that would be even harder to achieve if the US did not show up to help."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":261.35,"text":"There are also some longer-range missiles in European arsenals. The UK has submarine-launched Tomahawk missiles with a range of around 1,600km while France has a ship-launched weapon made by pan-European missile maker MBDA called the Missile de Croisière Naval (MdCN) with a 1,400km range."}],[{"start":283.25,"text":"While France and the UK possess long-range nuclear ballistic missiles as part of their sea-based nuclear deterrent, they don’t have conventional equivalents — creating an “all or nothing” means of response against an attack. "}],[{"start":296,"text":"Is Europe vulnerable?"}],[{"start":298.35,"text":"Without the ability to strike targets such as naval bases near Murmansk or Novorossiysk, or military sites close to Moscow, Europe finds itself heavily outmatched."}],[{"start":308.8,"text":"Russia possesses a number of cruise and ballistic missiles with 2,000+km range, including the Kinzhal and 9M729, putting Warsaw, Berlin and Munich within range from mainland Russia. Such weapons deployed in Kaliningrad, Russia’s Baltic Sea enclave, could hit London, Paris and Rome."}],[{"start":329.25,"text":"That imbalance limits Europe’s ability to deter Russia from contemplating a possible attack, Nato officials say, and complicates war planning."}],[{"start":338.3,"text":"“In a Russia crisis scenario, we don’t want to end up in a situation where the absence of US [DPS] systems makes the whole crisis management much more complicated,” said Grand, a former Nato assistant secretary-general."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":352.40000000000003,"text":"As that realisation has dawned on European nations, they have begun striving to obtain and develop their own ground-launched missiles that can reach Russia from their own territory, requiring ranges of 1,500km or more. "}],[{"start":366.6,"text":"“Europe’s deep precision strike challenge is not only a range gap. It is an industrial-capacity, replenishment and sovereignty gap,” said Mikhail Kokorich, chief executive of Netherlands-based cruise missile manufacturer Destinus. “Recent conflicts have shown that precision systems are consumed at a scale far beyond traditional European stockpile assumptions.”"}],[{"start":391.1,"text":"Developing stockpiles of domestic DPS, which could be used without Washington’s approval, would change Europe’s deterrence and offensive calculus dramatically, the Nato officials suggest. "}],[{"start":401.5,"text":"It would mean Moscow would have to factor in potentially devastating reprisals from Europe in response to any attack, even if the US decided not to support Nato allies. It would also give France and the UK non-nuclear escalation options in the event of an all-out conflict."}],[{"start":420.1,"text":"What’s the plan to develop it?"}],[{"start":422.5,"text":"In 2024, Germany, France, Poland and Italy launched a joint effort called Elsa to develop a variety of European-made, long-range missiles. The programme, later joined by the UK and Sweden, has an array of projects under development, including at least two with intended ranges of more than 2,000km. But most are still in the early stages and will not be ready until well into the 2030s. "}],[{"start":447.1,"text":"“There’s a dissonance between rhetoric and action which is inexplicable to me at this point,” said Fabian Hoffmann, a senior research fellow at the Norwegian Defence University College."}],[{"start":457.55,"text":"Officials and analysts say there are some possible stopgap solutions."}],[{"start":463.1,"text":"The fastest route to a European ground-fired, 2,000km+ missile would likely be to rapidly re-engineer an existing product such as France’s naval-based MdCN into a longer-range air or land version. This would provide potential options while the longer-term development of a foundational platform takes place."}],[{"start":485.6,"text":"Destinus currently produces more than 2,000 cruise missiles a year for a number of European countries. The missiles have also been used in Ukraine. It recently tested elements for Ruta Block 2 system, designed as a 700+km, 250kg payload precision deep-strike system. "}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":502.05,"text":"“Elsa is important because it gives political shape to this requirement,” said the Destinus CEO Kokorich, whose company last month announced a joint venture with Germany’s Rheinmetall. “But Europe will need several industrial pathways, not one perfect centralised programme. The requirement is too urgent and too large for a single traditional procurement model.”"}],[{"start":523.8,"text":"“Paris, Berlin and London are broadly aligned on the strategic problem,” he added. “But they have different industrial bases, procurement cultures, export-control approaches and sovereignty priorities . . . The question is whether Europe can turn that competition into speed and interoperable production, rather than bureaucracy.”"}],[{"start":543.5999999999999,"text":"Pistorius, the German defence minister, said that his country would also look to “Ukrainian knowhow” to help fill the gaps. Kyiv has been increasingly harnessing its own indigenous long-range strike technology to hit targets deep in Russian territory. "}],[{"start":558.7499999999999,"text":"That includes the Flamingo cruise missile unveiled last summer, with a reported range of more than 3,000km. Flamingos were used this week to hit a military-industrial target in Cheboksary on the Volga river, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said, a target more than 1,500km away."}],[{"start":578.3999999999999,"text":"Ukraine has also developed long-range strike drones that have been used to hit Russian oil refineries and ammunition depots. MBDA signed a contract with France in January for its One Way Effector attack drone with a range of 500km+. "}],[{"start":593.9499999999998,"text":"Hoffmann said that European nations should buy whatever they could get their hands on quickly, even if that meant acquiring imperfect solutions. He said: “In the end, if you are a beggar, you can’t be a chooser.” "}],[{"start":606.1499999999999,"text":"Additional reporting by Leila Abboud in Paris and Christopher Miller in Kyiv. Cartography by Steven Bernard and Ian Bott and illustration by Ian Bott and Cleve Jones"}],[{"start":626.0999999999998,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1778066066_7871.mp3"}