Novo Nordisk gets a second chance at weight-loss supremacy

{"text":[[{"start":4.25,"text":"US pharma giant Eli Lilly won the first act of the GLP-1 drug war, outpacing Novo Nordisk in sales of injectable weight-loss drugs and winning about 70 per cent of the market. But a second wave is now under way: both companies have launched their products in pill form, and this time the advantage might lie with Novo. "}],[{"start":25.65,"text":"The Danish drugmaker certainly got off the blocks at speed. Patient numbers for Novo’s pill three weeks after it had been launched were about twice the level of its rival’s at the same milestone, possibly helped by the fact that it was first to market. A more significant reason is likely to be that, unlike in injectables, this time it is Novo that seems to have the better product. Its pill has demonstrated weight loss of about 17 per cent, compared with roughly 12 per cent at Lilly. "}],[{"start":52.7,"text":"Novo’s treatment also builds on a familiar molecule and the Wegovy brand, while Lilly’s requires prescribers to get to grips with a new formula. And while Novo’s pill comes with stricter food-timing requirements, it appears to integrate more easily with common daily medications, such as the statins often taken by patients with high cholesterol. "}],[{"start":null,"text":"

"}],[{"start":73.15,"text":"Novo’s edge is all the more helpful because weight loss pills are set to eat into injectables’ market share, and grow the overall market too. Already, about four-fifths of Lilly’s pills are being prescribed to patients new to GLP-1s. For Novo, the figure is about two-thirds. Rothschild & Co Redburn analysts think that the global obesity market could reach roughly $90bn by 2031. If Novo were to supply half of all pills, it could be looking at $13bn in annual pill revenue by 2031, based on Lex calculations."}],[{"start":107.30000000000001,"text":"Current forecasts are more conservative. Analysts peg Novo’s pill revenue at closer to $7bn by 2031. Meanwhile, Lilly’s pill is expected to generate as much as $22bn in 2031, according to Bloomberg data. Still, optimism is starting to percolate. Forecasts for Novo’s pill revenue in 2027 have risen by almost half over the past three months, according to Visible Alpha. The company’s valuation as a multiple of forward earnings is recovering; Lilly’s has fallen slightly."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":139.60000000000002,"text":"None of this solves Novo’s long-term problems. Its patent on semaglutide, the molecule behind its obesity drugs, expires in the US and Europe in 2032, while the pill could be protected for another couple of years after that. Still, the drugmaker’s successful launch makes it more likely it can address that challenge from a position of strength, and is a reminder that, in the broader battle for first place, there is still room for surprises."}],[{"start":173.25000000000003,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1778128467_3372.mp3"}