{"text":[[{"start":10.34,"text":"Investors will watch US inflation data due on Wednesday especially closely, after Friday’s weak jobs report lowered expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its next meeting in September."}],[{"start":21.72,"text":"Economists polled by Reuters expect the annual pace of headline consumer price inflation to have dropped to 3.4 per cent in July from 3.5 per cent in June. The core measure, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, is seen dipping to 2.5 per cent from 2.6 per cent a month earlier."}],[{"start":40.14,"text":"After months of rising prices driven by the US war in Iran, inflation cooled in June as petrol prices fell."}],[{"start":47.16,"text":"Economists at Citi argue that “[a] second consecutive softer reading, as we expect, would mean more than ‘just one month’ of data pointing to cooling inflationary pressure and, in our view, largely taking a September rate hike . . . off the table.”"}],[{"start":59.84,"text":"However, economists also expect core services inflation to tick up in July, with prices rising 0.3 per cent month-on-month. The rate was previously flat between May and June. Analysts at Bank of America say a pick-up in the core services measure could keep “a September hike firmly in play”."}],[{"start":77.88,"text":"Traders in the futures market are putting a roughly 45 per cent chance on a quarter-point rate rise in September, down from about 60 per cent before Friday’s dismal report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the US economy shed 23,000 jobs in July. The question is whether analysts will ultimately dismiss the report as a one-off seasonal anomaly or take it as a sign that the economy is slowing."}],[{"start":100.4,"text":"If the latter view prevails, and inflation comes in at a slower pace than expected, a Fed rate rise may be pushed out to December or beyond. Kate Duguid"}],[{"start":109.56,"text":"Will the US-Japan ‘yentervention’ fade?"}],[{"start":112.08,"text":"The historic joint intervention by Washington and Tokyo to support the Japanese yen on July 31 surprised investors, blindsided the European Central Bank and heralded a new age of FX activism by the US Treasury. But is it working?"}],[{"start":124.6,"text":"The yen strengthened to a peak of ¥155.21 to the dollar during this latest bout of “yentervention”, as some analysts have dubbed such actions, having traded at about ¥164 before it. But it has since weakened back to around ¥158, despite the roughly ¥13.8tn ($87bn) Japan alone is estimated to have spent in just two days."}],[{"start":147.08,"text":"Many have viewed the intervention as no more than a shot across the bow of those betting against the yen and argued that pushing against interest rate fundamentals — with a big gap between Japan’s 1 per cent policy interest rate and other big economies’ higher rates — was futile."}],[{"start":162.24,"text":"But the picture may be shifting. Bets on Bank of Japan rate increases have strengthened in the past couple of weeks, and swaps markets now imply a roughly 50/50 chance of a quarter-point rise in September."}],[{"start":173.92,"text":"“More hawkish action than previously is now clearly required, and if the BoJ does not hike in September its determination to continue to tighten could be called into question,” said analysts at Citi, who now expect the BoJ’s policy rate to reach 2 per cent by the end of next year."}],[{"start":190.44,"text":"The yen’s softening since the intervention, despite firmer pricing on rate hikes, underlines that something bigger may be needed to create a lasting yen bounce. Ian Smith"}],[{"start":198.96,"text":"Will the UK economy withstand the Iran war energy shock?"}],[{"start":204.24,"text":"The UK economy has so far seemed relatively resilient to the period of higher oil prices sparked by the US-Iran war. Investors will watch GDP data for June and the whole of the second quarter on Thursday for an indication of whether this can be sustained."}],[{"start":218.88,"text":"“After a thumping start to the year, where the UK registered the fastest growth in the G7 [in the first quarter], we expect momentum to slow but remain healthy,” said Sanjay Raja, chief UK economist at Deutsche Bank."}],[{"start":231.6,"text":"The Office for National Statistics said the UK economy expanded 0.1 per cent in May. Economists polled by Reuters expect it to have contracted by 0.1 per cent in June, taking second-quarter GDP growth to 0.4 per cent — “still very strong”, said Raja."}],[{"start":247.92,"text":"If confirmed, this would put quarterly growth ahead of the forecasts analysts made at the beginning of 2026, despite the global energy shock triggered by the Iran war from the end of February."}],[{"start":257.32,"text":"Defying warnings that high energy prices would lead to stagflation, UK economic growth has so far beaten analysts’ expectations while inflation has undershot the Bank of England’s forecasts."}],[{"start":269.12,"text":"The June period covered in Thursday’s data release was one of relatively low oil prices as tensions in the Middle East eased. At the same time, the football World Cup is expected to have marginally boosted the economy, limiting the downside from any contraction in services."}],[{"start":284.8,"text":"But Prime Minister Andy Burnham should not assume this economic picture can continue, economists have warned."}],[{"start":290.52,"text":"“The UK’s headline pace of growth remains unsustainable,” Raja said. “We expect a slow pass-through of the energy shock over the coming months . . . and some budget uncertainty could also bite.” Emily Herbert"}],[{"start":306.76,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1786277355_4545.mp3"}