{"text":[[{"start":11.36,"text":"Is Donald Trump about to lose control of the US Congress?"}],[{"start":14.84,"text":"Polling data points to a “blue wave”, giving Democrats majorities in the 435-seat House of Representatives and the 100-seat Senate. According to the latest New York Times/Siena poll, Democrats are leading in nearly all seven battleground Senate races, with at least a five-point lead in four of them."}],[{"start":33.38,"text":"The past few days before the midterm vote have been dramatic, including a feud in Michigan between the Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed and the woman he beat in the party’s primary, Haley Stevens. Alaska Democrats have also been implicated in running a candidate to siphon votes from their rival in the Republican Senate race."}],[{"start":52.22,"text":"In the face of voter disquiet about inflation and affordability, President Trump’s closing message has focused on non-economic matters — from backsides to his culture-war issues — to drive turnout from his base."}],[{"start":64.48,"text":"Here are the races to watch:"}],[{"start":67.04,"text":"1. Georgia and North Carolina: Early clues on the ‘blue wave’"}],[{"start":70.76,"text":"Important results from the East Coast will start landing from 7pm EST onwards in the earliest states, while western states will stretch past midnight."}],[{"start":79.16,"text":"Georgia and North Carolina’s Senate races will be among the earliest reported, making them a barometer of Democrats’ performance in the competitive Senate races and whether the “blue wave” is real. Both were rated as toss-ups by pollsters originally but now tilt strongly in Democrats’ favour."}],[{"start":null,"text":"

"}],[{"start":95.64,"text":"2. New York and Pennsylvania: Republicans distanced from Trump"}],[{"start":99.84,"text":"Just two House Republicans are defending districts that voted for Kamala Harris for president in 2024: Mike Lawler of New York and Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania."}],[{"start":109.52,"text":"These legislators could be early Republican casualties in a Democratic surge — and a test of whether heavy donor spending has worked to insulate them."}],[{"start":117.52,"text":"Lawler entered Congress in 2023 as part of a group of four New York Republicans that signalled a potential rightward shift in a historically liberal state. The other three Republicans with whom he entered the House that year — including the scandal-ridden George Santos — have left, replaced by Democrats. Lawler and Fitzpatrick have sometimes tried to distance themselves from the president, with Fitzpatrick voting against Trump-supported bills in the House more than any other Republican."}],[{"start":145.36,"text":"Campaigns and outside groups have spent a combined $52mn towards electing Lawler and Fitzpatrick. Each candidate has blanketed airwaves with ads that seek to establish them as moderates. Their Democratic challengers have been propped up by roughly $33mn in spending with ads highlighting Trump."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":164.48,"text":"3. Kansas and Iowa: A test for heartland Republicans"}],[{"start":168.04,"text":"A big shift has unfolded across the Midwest, a Republican stronghold in recent elections. Trump’s tariffs and his Iran war have driven up equipment, fertiliser and diesel prices for farming communities, hitting rural voters."}],[{"start":182,"text":"Voters in Kansas have not picked a Democratic senator since the 1930s. But the NYT-Siena poll released on Sunday gave the party’s candidate, Adam Hamilton, a five-point lead. The Methodist pastor has taken aim at the Republican Party’s weakest issues under Trump: affordable energy, food and healthcare."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":200.12,"text":"In Iowa’s US Senate race, Democrat Josh Turek — a self-declared “common sense prairie populist” — is in a tight race with Ashley Hinson. Trump has rallied for her in recent days, although the NYT-Siena poll also showed her slightly behind."}],[{"start":214.32,"text":"If Democrats break into solidly red Kansas and Iowa, it will be ominous for Republicans, showing kitchen table issues are chipping away at a core voter bloc — and their Senate control is fading."}],[{"start":226.76,"text":"4. Texas and Ohio: Can Democrats defy huge Republican spending?"}],[{"start":231.88,"text":"Democrats’ big Senate hopes also hinge on Ohio and Texas, where a deluge of spending has landed in recent weeks."}],[{"start":238.44,"text":"Only one Democrat has won statewide in a big race in Ohio in the past decade: Sherrod Brown. He is fighting to reclaim the Senate seat he held for 18 years but lost in 2024."}],[{"start":249.14,"text":"He faces Jon Husted, a Republican appointed to finish vice-president JD Vance’s term. He was Ohio’s lieutenant-governor, secretary of state and Ohio House speaker — but Trump’s campaigning for him has been notable for the president’s repeated references to his “pile of muscle” backside."}],[{"start":267.44,"text":"The race has drawn more than $360mn in outside spending, including large sums from the crypto industry, which is aiming to block Brown, whose role in the Senate banking committee once drew its ire."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":280.08,"text":"Texas is the Democrats’ holy grail, as the state has not elected one of the party’s Senate candidates since 1988, despite predictions that demographic shifts would turn the state blue. Joe Biden lost Texas by 5.5 points in 2020. Harris lost the state to Trump by almost 14 points."}],[{"start":299,"text":"Democrats’ hopes this time are bolstered by the Republican candidate’s weaknesses: Trump-endorsed Ken Paxton was impeached in 2023 over bribery, misuse of public funds and retaliation against whistleblowers. Trump has relentlessly mocked him for his appearance."}],[{"start":313.92,"text":"Paxton is up against James Talarico, a Presbyterian seminarian and former teacher whom Republicans have attacked as too progressive and not manly enough for Texas. The recent NYT-Siena poll puts him seven points ahead of Paxton."}],[{"start":327.4,"text":"But the Republican is backed by more than $440mn in outside spending, including from Trump’s Maga Inc Super Pac and Elon Musk’s America Pac."}],[{"start":338.16,"text":"5. Michigan and Minnesota: How popular are leftwing Democrats?"}],[{"start":342.68,"text":"El-Sayed’s race in Michigan has drawn international attention, especially in the final days of the contest, when the progressive Democrat lost the endorsement of a moderate he defeated in the party’s primary. Stevens accused El-Sayed of siding with antisemites and said she would vote for his Republican rival, Mike Rogers."}],[{"start":360.84,"text":"The race in Michigan and another in Minnesota will show whether the leftwing, anti-establishment message that has been popular in deeply Democratic parts of the country, such as New York City, can win in swing states."}],[{"start":372.08,"text":"Both states have returned Democratic senators for decades and should be easy wins if a national “blue wave” is under way."}],[{"start":378.68,"text":"Yet the US Senate races are running surprisingly close."}],[{"start":382.36,"text":"Polling averages by RealClearPolitics put El-Sayed 5.3 points ahead in Michigan and Peggy Flanagan 5.4 points ahead in Minnesota."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":391.2,"text":"El-Sayed, a former public health official and political outsider, has combined leftwing economic policies such as the expansion of Medicare and higher taxes on billionaires with fierce criticism of American foreign policy on Israel and Iran. If elected he would also be the first Muslim member of the US Senate."}],[{"start":410.48,"text":"Republicans have spent $170mn on an advertising blitz in Michigan, including $50mn on attack ads against El-Sayed and what they call his “dangerous radicalism”. Trump has branded him a “jihadist”, while Rogers has claimed he has been bought off by the Muslim Brotherhood."}],[{"start":428,"text":"El-Sayed says his opponents are more focused on his name than his policies and has downplayed his feud with Haley."}],[{"start":434.48,"text":"In Minnesota, Flanagan, who beat a better-funded centrist rival in the Democratic primary, has run a campaign focused on tackling corruption, expanding healthcare access and opposing tariffs on neighbouring Canada."}],[{"start":447.02,"text":"A loss in either race could threaten Democratic control of Congress. The results in both states, win or lose, will also feed into a deepening debate about the future of the party and the role of its progressive wing."}],[{"start":463.96,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1793683245_4188.mp3"}