It’s showdown time. This week, EU leaders meet in Brussels to decide how to take on China over trade. Then again, these days it’s always showdown time. For years the EU has become increasingly alarmed at China’s dominance of green tech and its interventionist trade and industrial policy but done little to combat it. Internal divisions have restrained EU assertiveness. Germany and Spain, wanting to protect, respectively, exports to and inward electric vehicle investment from China, stand ready with buckets of cold water to cool down what they see as hot-headed trade warriors. Tools like the anti-coercion instrument (ACI), which could give legal cover for a wide range of retaliatory actions, remain unused.
摊牌的时候到了。本周欧盟领导人将在布鲁塞尔开会，以决定怎么在贸易方面跟中国对抗。话说回来，这样的局面在如今已是家常便饭。多年来，中国在绿色技术领域的主导地位及其干预主义的贸易和产业政策越来越叫欧盟坐立不安，但布鲁塞尔方面却几乎没有采取什么行动与之对抗。
But even if consensus is achieved, Europeans should learn from Donald Trump’s experience and refrain from aggressive actions likely to lead to escalation. Last October the US president impetuously threatened huge tariff increases but then rapidly backed down after China started to bring US factories to a halt by cutting off exports of rare earth elements such as dysprosium. Beijing clearly demonstrated “escalation dominance” — superior firepower in all-out trade war.
内部分歧使欧盟无法摆出坚决的态度。德国和西班牙——一个是想保护自己的对华出口，一个是想保护来自中国的电动汽车投资——准备了好几桶冷水，随时要给在它们看来头脑发热的贸易斗士降降温。像“反胁迫工具”之类的手段可以打着法律的旗帜实施多种多样的报复行动，却至今仍未动用。
The same is likely to apply to Europe, which experienced collateral damage in last year’s conflict. I recently attended a table-top simulation of an EU-China trade war based on an assessment of Europe’s economic and political realities. Assorted think-tankers, academics and similar types variously took the parts of the Commission, the Council — which collectively represents the member states — some individual EU governments, China and side characters like the US and Japan.
但即使能达成共识，欧洲也应从唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的经历中吸取教训，避免采取可能导致事态升级的激进措施。去年10月，美国总统贸然威胁要对中国加征巨额关税，在中国开始以切断镝等稀土元素的出口为手段迫使美国工厂停产后，特朗普迅速作出让步。北京方面明确展示了“升级主导权”——表明其在全面贸易战中拥有更强大的火力。