Just over a year into office, Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s coalition in Germany is deep in the doldrums. Hamstrung by infighting between its centre-right and centre-left partners, it has struggled to reverse Germany’s economic stagnation and waning competitiveness. Three cheers, then, for pension reform proposals unveiled last week with both partners’ apparent backing. This is the boldest move by Merz’s government since the relaxation of the debt brake for investment and defence, with positive implications beyond Germany.
德国总理弗里德里希•默茨(Friedrich Merz)上任一年多一点之际，其联合政府深陷低迷状态。受困于中右翼与中左翼执政伙伴之间的内斗，默茨政府在扭转德国经济停滞和竞争力下滑方面进展不顺。在此背景下，上周公布的显然得到两个执政伙伴支持的养老金改革方案值得喝彩。这是默茨政府自放宽“债务刹车”以支持投资和国防以来最大胆的举措，其积极影响将传播到德国的疆界以外。
Under proposals agreed by a bipartisan commission, a compulsory initial contribution of 0.5 per cent of employees’ pre-tax income, rising to 2 per cent by 2031, will go into a Swedish-style public pension fund managed centrally and invested in capital markets. Contributions are split 50/50 between employees and employers. The statutory minimum retirement age of 67 is set to rise in line with life expectancy; rights to early retirement for people with 45 years of contributions will be restricted.
根据一个跨党派委员会商定的提案，一项强制性的缴费（初期占员工税前收入的0.5%，到2031年升至2%）将注入一只瑞典式的公共养老基金；该基金将集中管理，并投资于资本市场。缴费由雇员和雇主各承担50%。法定的最低退休年龄（目前为67岁）将随预期寿命的延长而上调；连续缴费45年即可提前退休的权利将受到限制。
Such measures have become vital to reduce the deficits of Germany’s unsustainable pay-as-you-go system. Some 16.5mn baby boomers will retire by 2036 with only 12.5mn new workers joining the workforce, according to some estimates. The government spent about a quarter of the total federal budget on plugging gaps in the system in 2024; economists say that could double to 50 per cent in two decades.
要减少德国难以为继的“现收现付制”养老金体系的缺口，此类措施已变得至关重要。据估计，到2036年，将有约1650万名“婴儿潮”一代人退休，而同期仅有1250万名新劳动者进入就业市场。2024年，德国政府约四分之一的联邦预算用于填补养老金体系缺口；经济学家们表示，这一比例在20年后可能翻倍至50%。