{"text":[[{"start":8.8,"text":"Federal Reserve policymakers broadly agreed that “some policy firming would likely be warranted” if inflation remained elevated as price pressures dominated Kevin Warsh’s first meeting in charge of the US central bank."}],[{"start":23.6,"text":"Minutes of the June discussion, released on Wednesday, showed that many members of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee remained worried the central bank would struggle to bring inflation back to its 2 per cent target."}],[{"start":36.95,"text":"Most of those present pointed to potential scenarios in which the labour market remained stable while AI-fuelled demand, the war in the Middle East and the effects of tariffs kept price pressures elevated."}],[{"start":48.5,"text":"“In such scenarios, almost all of these participants indicated that some policy firming would likely be warranted to return inflation to 2 per cent,” the minutes read."}],[{"start":58,"text":"The meeting was held on June 16-17 before resurgent tensions in the Middle East, with Donald Trump saying on Wednesday that the ceasefire between the US and Iran was now “over”."}],[{"start":69.65,"text":"Oil prices, which had declined steadily over the past two months, hit a two-week high on Wednesday as traders braced for renewed conflict, reviving concerns about a fresh burst of global inflation."}],[{"start":80.75,"text":"The minutes come on the same day that the IMF warned the threat of fresh hostilities in the Middle East driving up global inflation “looms large”."}],[{"start":90.05,"text":"Warsh’s first meeting in charge saw the FOMC hold US borrowing costs within the 3.5 to 3.75 per cent range for the fourth meeting in a row."}],[{"start":99.6,"text":"But the committee also removed a longstanding bias towards saying the next move was likely to be a rate cut amid concerns the Iran war was derailing the US central bank’s attempts to curb inflation."}],[{"start":111.35,"text":"“Most participants emphasised that they preferred not to repeat the language in the previous post-meeting statement that had suggested an easing bias regarding the likely direction of the Committee’s future interest rate decisions,” according to the minutes."}],[{"start":125.44999999999999,"text":"The Fed — and investors — had anticipated rate cuts this year before the war spurred a surge in oil prices. Headline PCE inflation is now more than twice the Fed’s goal at 4.1 per cent for the year to May."}],[{"start":139.39999999999998,"text":"But despite the shift in language in the post-meeting statement, “most” committee members also pointed to potential scenarios in which inflationary pressures could dissipate."}],[{"start":148.29999999999998,"text":"“In such scenarios, almost all of these participants noted that it would likely be appropriate to maintain or eventually lower the target range for the federal funds rate,” the minutes read. "}],[{"start":158.85,"text":"The June decision was the first unanimous monetary policy vote since the same month last year. However, Warsh broke with the rest of the FOMC in refusing to submit any projections for the so-called dot plots, which show what officials think will happen next to rates and the US economic outlook. "}],[{"start":178.29999999999998,"text":"Warsh’s break with a tradition that began during the era of Ben Bernanke reflects the new chair’s view that the dot plots have in the past led the Fed to double down on policy errors."}],[{"start":188.85,"text":"US equities and government bond markets remained weaker on Wednesday as tensions in the Middle East flared up. The yield on the two-year Treasury, which is sensitive to policy expectations, was up 0.04 percentage points to 4.2 per cent but had eased from its highest level since June 22. Yields rise as bond prices fall. The S&P 500 was down 0.3 per cent in afternoon trading."}],[{"start":221.6,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1783564274_6217.mp3"}