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{"text":[[{"start":12.22,"text":"Investors in Anthropic’s initial public offering this month face a pricing challenge unlike any Wall Street debut before it."}],[{"start":19.56,"text":"Few companies have ever grown as fast as the Claude maker: its sales grew more than 100-fold between 2023 and 2025 and it is on track to increase more than 10-fold again this year. As the first pure-play “frontier” AI research group to go public, demand for a piece of a “once-in-a-generation” company is expected to be through the roof, especially from retail investors."}],[{"start":43.12,"text":"But set against that hype is a stock market that is showing increasing concern about rising infrastructure costs, public backlash, increased competition from US and Chinese rivals and whether Anthropic’s corporate clients are seeing benefits from their spending on the technology."}],[{"start":43.62,"text":"The valuation calculator"}],[{"start":58.96,"text":"Anthropic on Tuesday set its own valuation range at $1.26-$1.41tn on a fully diluted basis. At the high end of that range, that would represent about five times its 2028 revenues, which leaked estimates from Goldman Sachs project at about $273bn."}],[{"start":79.36,"text":"The FT’s interactive calculator allows readers to input their own estimates of Anthropic’s 2028 revenues, and the multiple they believe is most appropriate, to quickly produce an estimate of its valuation."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":92,"text":"Price-to-sales multiples are a common way to value fast-growing tech groups. Many traditional investors prefer a price-to-earnings ratio. But a valuation based on Anthropic’s profits is not possible since it made a net loss of $104bn in the first nine months of this year. (Goldman Sachs projects operating losses to continue until 2029.)"}],[{"start":92.5,"text":"What do experts think?"}],[{"start":112.32,"text":"Arjun Bhatia, analyst at investment bank William Blair, believes a valuation of $1.5tn looks “quite reasonable” at “just seven times” Anthropic’s 2028 revenue estimate of $223bn. That would place the AI company roughly in line with Microsoft’s price-to-sales multiple. It is far lower than racy AI stocks such as Palantir and Cloudflare, which both trade at more than 20 times 2028 sales, according to data from Visible Alpha."}],[{"start":142.88,"text":"“In our view, this is an attractive multiple for a once-in-a-generation company like Anthropic operating in a technological shift that takes place once every few decades at best,” Bhatia wrote in a research note."}],[{"start":156.74,"text":"Some investors have been alarmed by the slowing pace of growth at Anthropic in the third quarter of this year. But Bhatia said: “We still expect Anthropic to be one of the fastest-growing tech companies over the next several years.”"}],[{"start":169.56,"text":"Malik Ahmed Khan, senior equity analyst at Morningstar, estimates that Anthropic is worth about $1.7tn, based on a forecast of 47 per cent annual revenue growth from 2027 to 2031 — and sales reaching $360bn by the end of that period."}],[{"start":188,"text":"But Khan concedes that the nascent AI industry is hard to model. He said Anthropic had an “absolutely ridiculous year” in 2026 but could be threatened by higher infrastructure costs, lower uptake from business customers or a resurgence by Google or OpenAI."}],[{"start":204.48,"text":"Morningstar models a “bull case” of a $3.4tn valuation, where Anthropic’s revenue accelerates to $650bn by 2031, and a “bear case” where sales only reach $135bn and the company is worth $500bn."}],[{"start":220.94,"text":"Other valuation experts offer a similarly dizzying range of outcomes."}],[{"start":225.16,"text":"Aswath Damodaran, professor of finance at New York University’s Stern business school, posits an “upbeat” valuation estimate of $1.5tn, based on its sales hitting $1tn in 2036, despite the “red flag” of Anthropic’s unusual governance structure."}],[{"start":241.32,"text":"Damodaran also warns of a “worst-case” scenario, where sales do not reach $200bn for another decade and computing costs drag margins to about 10 per cent, which would send its equity value below $400bn and the company would “not survive as a going concern”. In Damodaran’s “best case” model, Anthropic’s sales surge to $1.5tn within a decade, computing power becomes “cheap” and its valuation hits $4tn."}],[{"start":270.54,"text":"Even at $1.3tn, at the low end of its projected range, Anthropic would be worth more than Berkshire Hathaway or Walmart and rank just behind Tesla among the top 10 most valuable public companies in the US."}],[{"start":284.4,"text":"The stock is expected to start trading on or soon after November 19."}],[{"start":294.52,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1794385500_5297.mp3"}