Europe’s green backlash

{"text":[[{"start":7.99,"text":"The rise of populist and far-right parties in Sunday’s European parliament elections was partly mirrored by falls for green parties — even if the centre largely held. "},{"start":16.732,"text":"Five years after the euphoria the Greens experienced in 2019, when they increased their seats from 52 to 74, they slipped back to 53. "},{"start":25.274,"text":"The setback is unlikely to lead to a widescale rollback of EU climate policies. "},{"start":29.967,"text":"But it will surely mean less green ambition in the coming five years — with implications well beyond Europe. "}],[{"start":36.53,"text":"The Greens’ performance in 2019 may prove a high-water mark. "},{"start":40.434,"text":"In the more benign, pre-pandemic and prewar economic environment, mass rallies inspired by green groups and activists such as Greta Thunberg helped to make climate concerns a central electoral issue. "},{"start":50.952,"text":"In response, mainstream parties were adopting net zero pledges and Ursula von der Leyen, the then incoming European Commission president, made the Green Deal — which aims to make the EU climate-neutral by 2050 — her flagship project. "}],[{"start":65.05,"text":"Unfortunately, voters began to feel the impact of green policies on their wallets and lifestyles just as post-pandemic inflation and the energy shock from the Ukraine war kicked in. "},{"start":74.62899999999999,"text":"Some governments exacerbated the problem through mis-steps; the botched introduction by Germany’s three-way coalition — including the Greens — of a bill to replace new gas and oil heating systems with heat pumps created a backlash exploited by the far-right AfD. "}],[{"start":88.34,"text":"Hard-right parties elsewhere made political capital out of promises to slow the transition, and centre-right parties adopted watered-down versions of the same rhetoric. "},{"start":96.95700000000001,"text":"EU-wide farmers’ protests over environmental regulations seen as heavy-handed provided a very different backdrop to the 2024 vote. "}],[{"start":105.31,"text":"The overall picture is mixed. "},{"start":107.464,"text":"It is far more complex than green votes flowing directly to far-right parties — though green parties performed worst in France and Germany, where the far right did best. "},{"start":116.107,"text":"Greens fared better in Sweden, where the far right did not surge, and advanced in Denmark — while the Labour/Green alliance in the Netherlands narrowly overtook Geert Wilders’ far-right party. "},{"start":126.499,"text":"Where hard-right parties did well, polling suggests concern about migration — or its effects on, say, housing costs — was a bigger factor than the “greenlash”. "}],[{"start":136.66,"text":"Yet an enlarged hard-right presence in the parliament, and the greater caution of von der Leyen’s centre-right EPP group, provide a much less propitious outlook for green policies in the next five years — which are vital to determining whether the EU achieves its 2030 climate change targets. "},{"start":151.489,"text":"Green laws already adopted will be hard to undo. "},{"start":154.494,"text":"But some, including the 2035 phaseout of the sale of new petrol or diesel cars, are due to be reviewed, and could be weakened. "},{"start":162.112,"text":"A less climate-friendly parliament could make life harder for Brussels’ proposal to agree a legal target of cutting net emissions by 90 per cent, from 1990 levels, by 2040. "},{"start":171.792,"text":"Von der Leyen seems likely to adopt a different focus, such as defence, if she secures a second term. "}],[{"start":178.41,"text":"Policymakers committed to the green transition need to learn lessons. "},{"start":182.464,"text":"They must be finely attuned to the impact on consumers, and ensure policies are well designed and communicated, with help for those most heavily affected. "},{"start":190.432,"text":"More targeted tax incentives to reduce the upfront costs of, say, installing solar panels or switching to electric vehicles could accelerate adoption by businesses and households alike. "}],[{"start":201.48,"text":"A more compelling narrative is needed, too, on the jobs, businesses and technologies the green transition will create. "},{"start":208.48399999999998,"text":"The European election of 2024 might yet prove to be the peak of the far right. "},{"start":212.97699999999998,"text":"But amid efforts to neutralise rightwing extremism, the focus on combating the epochal threat of climate change must not be lost. "}],[{"start":219.95,"text":""}]],"url":"https://creatives.ftacademy.cn/album/158584-1718162373.mp3"}