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Vice-president Kamala Harris has drawn level with former president Donald Trump in the polls barely a week into her presidential campaign, according to an FT analysis of the latest data.
根据英国《金融时报》对最新数据的分析，美国副总统卡玛拉•哈里斯(Kamala Harris)在开始总统竞选不到一周的时间里，在民调中就追平了前总统唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)。
President Joe Biden withdrew from the race on July 21, after a disastrous performance in his debate against Trump weeks earlier, and immediately endorsed Harris. Since then, she has all but wiped out her party’s national polling deficit against her rival, according to a Financial Times average of polls.
乔•拜登(Joe Biden)总统在几周前与特朗普的辩论中表现糟糕，于7月21日退出竞选，并立即表示支持哈里斯。根据英国《金融时报》对民调结果的平均统计，自那以来，她几乎抹平了民主党在全国民调中相对于竞争对手的劣势。
While Biden trailed Trump by 3 percentage points on the day he dropped out of the presidential race, Harris and the former president are now neck and neck nationally.
虽然拜登在退出总统竞选当天落后特朗普3个百分点，但哈里斯和这位前总统目前在全国的支持率不分上下。
Ultimately, US elections are decided by the Electoral College, and therefore in a small subset of winner-take-all “battleground” states — including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
美国大选最终由选举人团决定，因此也可以说是由一小部分赢者通吃的“战场”州决定的，包括亚利桑那州、佐治亚州、密歇根州、内华达州、宾夕法尼亚州和威斯康星州。
In all six key battlegrounds, Harris’s recent polling represents a 1- to 3-point improvement over Biden’s before he dropped out a little over a week ago. Biden was trailing by two or more points in all six states at the time he dropped out, while Harris is now tied 50-50 with Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin and within a point of a tie in Nevada, Pennsylvania and Arizona. All are now statistical dead heats.
在所有六个关键战场上，哈里斯最近的民调都比拜登一周多前退出竞选前高出1到3个百分点。拜登退出竞选时，在这六个州都落后两个百分点或更多，而哈里斯现在在密歇根州和威斯康星州与特朗普50比50，在内华达州、宾夕法尼亚州和亚利桑那州与特朗普的差距在一个百分点以内。从统计数据来看，所有州都处于僵持状态。
Harris has also made gains across nearly every demographic group since Biden’s withdrawal, according to like-for-like comparisons of surveys from numerous pollsters. In particular, her support has increased among Black, Latino, young and female voters, and independents. It has declined marginally with only one group — voters over the age of 50.
根据众多民调机构的同类比较，自拜登退选以来，哈里斯在几乎所有人口群体中都取得了进展。特别是，她在黑人、拉丁裔、年轻选民和女性选民以及无党派人士中的支持率有所上升。只有一个群体——50岁以上的选民——的支持率略有下降。
Predictive traders closely tracking the race have noted these shifts. Harris has eclipsed Biden’s pre-debate price on two prediction markets, Polymarket and PredictIt, though they still see her as a slight underdog to Trump, whose own price spiked after he was shot in an attempted assassination on July 13.
密切跟踪这场竞争的预测交易员注意到了这些变化。哈里斯在Polymarket和PredictIt这两个预测市场上的价格已经超过了拜登辩论前的价格，尽管它们仍然认为她比特朗普略逊一筹，特朗普的价格在7月13日暗杀未遂后飙升。
With less than 100 days until the election, Harris has injected notable enthusiasm into a previously demoralised Democratic party.
距离大选还有不到100天的时间，哈里斯为此前士气低落的民主党注入了显著的热情。
Harris’s entry has also revived the enthusiasm of Democratic voters in a race where turnout will be paramount. Of those who voted for Biden in 2020, 73 per cent say they are “excited” to vote for Harris, versus only 37 per cent who said they were excited to vote for Biden again, according to an FT analysis of polls. Moreover, the share of 2020 Biden voters who planned not to vote dropped to 3 per cent from 10 per cent.
在这场投票率至关重要的竞选中，哈里斯的参选也重振了民主党选民的热情。英国《金融时报》对民调的分析显示，在2020年投票给拜登的人中，有73%表示对投票给哈里斯感到“兴奋”，而只有37%表示对再次投票给拜登感到兴奋。此外，2020年投票给拜登的选民中计划此次不投票的比例从10%降至3%。
Along with the renewed enthusiasm has come a fundraising bounty. Harris’s campaign on Sunday announced it had raised $200mn in less than a week, two-thirds of it from first-time donors.
伴随着重新燃起的热情而来的是慷慨的筹款。哈里斯的竞选团队上周日宣布，他们在不到一周的时间里筹集了2亿美元，其中三分之二来自首次捐款。
Additional research by Oliver Hawkins and Jonathan Vincent