{"text":[[{"start":8.780000000000001,"text":"Barring a last-minute U-turn by the far-right leader Marine Le Pen or other opposition, a no-confidence vote against Prime Minister Michel Barnier seems set to plunge France into the unknown as early as Wednesday. "},{"start":19.822,"text":"If it does pass, it will be the first time a government has been toppled in this way since Georges Pompidou’s in 1962. "},{"start":26.514000000000003,"text":"The EU’s second-largest economy will be left struggling to form a workable administration and pass an emergency budget by the year-end, the reputation of its political class further dented. "},{"start":36.194,"text":"It is hard to think of a worse moment: a month after the implosion of Olaf Scholz’s coalition in Germany, and weeks before Donald Trump’s return to the White House. "}],[{"start":45.410000000000004,"text":"The potential chaos underlines the folly of the snap elections called by President Emmanuel Macron in July that produced a fractured and fractious parliament. "},{"start":53.589000000000006,"text":"His advisers continue to justify the decision by saying that, without it, France was heading for a showdown over a cost-cutting budget needed to reduce a ballooning deficit forecast at over 6 per cent this year. "},{"start":64.58200000000001,"text":"That showdown has come to pass nonetheless. "}],[{"start":68.10000000000001,"text":"For now, despite Barnier’s warnings last week of a “big storm” in the markets, this is a political not a financial crisis. "},{"start":75.054,"text":"Though French borrowing costs have hit a 12-year high against Germany’s, there is little sign of Eurozone contagion. "},{"start":80.98400000000001,"text":"The risk to French bonds, however, will persist if the political instability becomes protracted. "}],[{"start":87.38000000000001,"text":"The imbroglio in part reflects errors by Barnier, too. "},{"start":91.38400000000001,"text":"The serious-minded ministerial veteran and former EU commissioner proposed an overly ambitious budget aiming to reduce the deficit to 5 per cent by the end of 2025, even more than Brussels was demanding. "},{"start":102.43900000000001,"text":"He may have underestimated the complexity of navigating a parliament transformed since he was last politically active in France. "},{"start":108.66900000000001,"text":"It is now composed of radical left and rightwing blocs and a squeezed centre. "}],[{"start":113.64000000000001,"text":"Even the government’s own supporters have been immersed in political infighting, with 2027 presidential ambitions in mind. "},{"start":120.41900000000001,"text":"But Barnier refused to negotiate with Le Pen’s Rassemblement National until too late, then had to offer costly concessions, which still proved insufficient. "}],[{"start":129.78000000000003,"text":"His calculation appeared to be that Le Pen would ultimately flinch from bringing down the government, after years of trying to “normalise” the image of her party as a responsible actor. "},{"start":138.62200000000004,"text":"If she presses ahead with her apparent decision to tilt back to being a disrupter, and side with a leftwing bloc she loathes in a censure vote, this will be a hefty gamble. "},{"start":147.23900000000003,"text":"It might yet backfire, especially among the more moderate voters RN needs to boost its chances of winning political power. "},{"start":153.85700000000003,"text":"Though Le Pen says Barnier’s budget will harm the less well-off, rolling over the 2024 budget and its tax bands will increase taxes on thousands of households, and pull thousands more into paying income tax for the first time. "}],[{"start":166.22000000000003,"text":"With Le Pen facing a judgment on March 31 in a corruption trial that could lead to a ban from running for president in 2027, she may have chosen to throw caution to the wind — perhaps even in hope of unseating Macron and prompting an early presidential poll. "}],[{"start":180.46000000000004,"text":"France’s president will surely try to hold firm against demands to stand down. "},{"start":185.03900000000004,"text":"If Barnier falls, Macron’s priority must be to find a new premier who can roll over the budget, and potentially hold on until parliamentary elections can be held next July. "},{"start":194.34400000000005,"text":"They would be unlikely, though, to return an assembly much different from today’s. "},{"start":198.96200000000005,"text":"Macron will attempt to present himself as a pillar of stability. "},{"start":202.50400000000005,"text":"But he seems increasingly buffeted by events, rather than in control of them — just when Europe most needs strong and concerted leadership in its major capitals. "}],[{"start":210.62000000000003,"text":""}]],"url":"https://creatives.ftmailbox.cn/album/183483-1733286343.mp3"}