{"text":[[{"start":6.69,"text":"The writer is head of FIC and commodities research at Société Générale"}],[{"start":13.72,"text":"The huge scale of disruption in global energy supply from the Iran war is being reflected in global oil markets to differing degrees. "}],[{"start":23.25,"text":"The best-known oil price benchmarks, Brent and West Texas Intermediate, are not the best barometers to measure the extent of the shock. They represent Atlantic basin markets rather than the region where the stress is most acute."}],[{"start":38.480000000000004,"text":"Middle Eastern benchmarks such as Dubai and Oman have surged far beyond the global markers, with spot barrels changing hands near $170 a barrel. That extreme pricing underscores just how tight Gulf-origin supply has become. "}],[{"start":57.31,"text":"A key part of the strain comes from the trade routes themselves. Almost all crude moving through the Strait of Hormuz is destined for Asian refiners — primarily China, India, Japan and South Korea. Among these top four buyers of crude in the region, Japan and South Korea are the most exposed to Hormuz, as they have historically sourced 81 per cent and 62 per cent respectively of their oil from the Strait."}],[{"start":88.6,"text":"In terms of days’ cover — the number of days a nation could draw on its inventories before exhausting their oil in storage — India and South Korea are the most vulnerable of those big four buyers. They have 74 and 73 days’ cover of Hormuz oil respectively. "}],[{"start":106.83,"text":"Several Southeast Asian buyers, including the Philippines, Myanmar and Vietnam, have much thinner cushions and are already rolling out measures to manage the strain, as are most Asian economies. Time is ticking, and the pressure is already beginning to show as prices for refined oil products across the region are spiking, and spot crude has become expensive enough to curb demand at the margin. "}],[{"start":132.51,"text":"Governments across Asia and the Pacific are not complacent. Several countries have moved early by rationing fuel or curbing non-essential consumption: Myanmar has imposed alternate-day refuelling and anti-hoarding crackdowns, while Bangladesh is restricting diesel sales, rationing gas and shutting fertiliser plants to preserve feedstock. India has invoked emergency powers to maximise LPG output and divert fuel from industrial users towards households."}],[{"start":null,"text":"
"}],[{"start":165.54999999999998,"text":"Others — such as the Philippines and Thailand — are pursuing demand-management measures ranging from shortened public-sector work weeks and work-from-home orders to civil-service fuel-saving mandates. A number of governments, including Indonesia and Japan, are cushioning the impact through subsidies or price caps, while Vietnam has cut import duties and activated stabilisation funds."}],[{"start":190.98999999999998,"text":"Many countries are also taking supply-side or administrative steps to secure additional barrels or smooth domestic distribution. China has halted refined fuel exports to prioritise its own market, and Australia has relaxed fuel-quality standards to allow more imports while directing additional diesel into shortage-hit regions. South Korea now requires refiners to meet minimum domestic supply volumes and has capped wholesale gasoline prices."}],[{"start":223.42999999999998,"text":"Others have adopted more targeted interventions: Sri Lanka has banned filling portable fuel containers to deter hoarding, Singapore is urging greater energy efficiency to reduce LNG consumption, and Taiwan has stepped up LNG procurement from the US. In smaller Southeast Asian markets — such as Brunei, the Philippines and Vietnam — authorities are intensifying monitoring, tapping emergency reserves, or seeking alternative supply channels from the Middle East and India."}],[{"start":258.22999999999996,"text":"While better placed than many economies because of domestic production, the US is not completely insulated from the shock. The options it has at its disposal to ease fuel-market pressures each carry distinct limitations as well as benefits."}],[{"start":274.81999999999994,"text":"Releasing crude from the country’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve has been agreed but such action will be slow to happen and only offers temporary relief. The recent waiving of the Jones Act — which mandates that the transport of goods between American ports must be conducted by US vessels – should speed domestic fuel shipments, improving logistics. But it’s thought its overall supply impact is limited."}],[{"start":301.1499999999999,"text":"Cutting gasoline taxes provides modest, short‑term consumer relief but is constrained federally and reduces transport-fund revenues. Relaxing summer rules on E15 fuel marginally expands gasoline supply through higher ethanol blending but delivers only a small buffer. Finally, restricting crude and product exports would lower domestic prices initially by trapping barrels at home but would be highly disruptive globally."}],[{"start":331.44999999999993,"text":"All the measures already undertaken by countries might be the start of things to come if signals from the options markets are accurate. In the last two weeks, there has been a big build-up of call options — which give a holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy an underlying futures contract — compared with put options, which give the holder the right to sell a futures contract. In the first week of the conflict, the opposite was true. "}],[{"start":359.63999999999993,"text":"That suggests the market believes we are in for further upside in oil prices rather than downside. The average strike for call options expiring in June expiration was $126 a barrel of oil whereas for put options it is $81. Worth noting, there is a small build in call options with a June strike price of $450 a barrel. I would sincerely hope that these options do not expire in the money, or the world would be in a really difficult situation. "}],[{"start":402.05999999999995,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1774275212_8851.mp3"}