{"text":[[{"start":6.58,"text":"Going to war with Iran was not a popular decision in the US. But in Israel the conflict commands overwhelming support — with over 80 per cent of the public backing the decision to attack. Nobody has done more to make the case that Iran poses an existential threat to Israel than Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The day after the initial air strikes on Tehran, he exulted that the current “combination of forces” — for which read, US participation — “allows us to do what I have been hoping to do for 40 years”."}],[{"start":44.51,"text":"But the reality is that Netanyahu’s longed-for war with Iran has not made his country safer. In fact, it is putting Israel’s long-term security in peril."}],[{"start":57.05,"text":"There are two main reasons for this. The first is that, for decades, the single biggest guarantee of Israeli security has been strong bipartisan support in the US. But the Netanyahu government’s actions — first in Gaza and now in Iran — are draining that support away."}],[{"start":75.88,"text":"The second reason is that the Iran war shows every sign of going wrong. The swift and decisive victory that both Trump and Netanyahu spoke of has not transpired. Instead, the war has escalated in ways that the US and Israel did not anticipate — with Iran effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz."}],[{"start":99.57,"text":"A long war poses a direct threat to Israeli soldiers and civilians — as evidenced by the Iranian missiles that struck a town in southern Israel over the weekend. It will also further damage Israel’s crucial alliance with the US."}],[{"start":116.5,"text":"Netanyahu’s supporters argue that Iran presented such an existential risk to Israel that the prime minister had no option but to ignore other issues and act. But some of Israel’s own leading Iran watchers dispute the idea that the Islamic republic’s nuclear programme presented an imminent threat."}],[{"start":137.29,"text":"Danny Citrinowicz, a former head of Iran research for Israel’s defence intelligence agency, argues that the previous Iranian leadership, now largely dead, were “cautious, calculating” actors. They had reportedly signalled in negotiations that Iran was prepared to significantly dilute the country’s stock of enriched uranium, a critical component in the development of nuclear weapons. In his view, “US negotiators appeared to struggle to fully grasp the technical and strategic implications of this offer.”"}],[{"start":173.47,"text":"Analysts like Citrinowicz believe that the biggest long-term strategic threat to Israel is not Iran — but the potential loss of the American support on which Israel relies. The erosion of that support is now well under way."}],[{"start":189.9,"text":"On February 27, the day before the Iran war began, a poll showed that — for the first time since Gallup started asking the question — more Americans sympathised with the Palestinians than the Israelis. Israel’s brutal campaign in Gaza in the wake of Hamas’s October 2023 attacks — which cost the lives of many thousands of Palestinian civilians — has driven that change in sentiment. A conventionally pro-Israel candidate will now struggle to win the Democratic Party nomination for the 2028 presidential election. Gavin Newsom, who is widely regarded as the frontrunner, has spoken of Israel as an “apartheid state”."}],[{"start":233.03,"text":"Netanyahu has long allied himself principally with the Republicans. But virulent anti-Israeli feeling — shading into outright antisemitism — is now widespread within Trump’s Maga movement. Those sentiments have been turbocharged by the Iran war and the resignation of Joe Kent, the Trump administration’s head of counterterrorism, who accused Israel of manipulating America into the conflict."}],[{"start":258.81,"text":"That version of events is actually far too kind to Trump. It is perfectly possible for a US president to reject an Israeli prime minister’s call for war with Iran. Barack Obama and Joe Biden did just that. Trump fell for it. A swift victory over Iran might have preserved or even reinforced the US-Israeli alliance. But if the US gets sucked into a quagmire that costs American lives and crashes the economy, the backlash against Israel will only get stronger. "}],[{"start":289.79,"text":"As a result, it is now entirely conceivable that in the 2028 presidential campaign both the Democratic and Republican candidates will be arguing for curtailing support to Israel. That would be a strategic disaster for the Israelis, who have long been heavily reliant on US political and military backing."}],[{"start":311.94,"text":"Since the Hamas attack on Israel, the US has provided Israel with more than $16bn in direct military aid — including bombs, ammunition and the missile interceptors that are crucial to warding off Iranian attacks. "}],[{"start":327.17,"text":"Israel’s formidable military machine has also allowed Netanyahu to promote a dangerous myth — that the only route to lasting security lies in warfare."}],[{"start":339.37,"text":"But the military victories that Netanyahu presented to the Israeli public as decisive have turned out to be no such thing. Hamas is still entrenched in Gaza. The assassination of the leadership of Hizbollah in 2024 did not end the Lebanese militant group’s threat — and Israel is now back fighting a major war in Lebanon. After the attacks on the Iranian nuclear programme last June, Netanyahu proclaimed a “historic victory” that would “abide for generations”. And yet here we are."}],[{"start":372.1,"text":"Netanyahu routinely denounces those who have pushed for talks with Iran and the Palestinians as naive dupes. In fact, the political and diplomatic routes are the only viable long-term paths to Israeli security. Netanyahu’s way is a recipe for perpetual war against a backdrop of rapidly declining international support for Israel, including in the US. That is a formula for disaster."}],[{"start":407.37,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1774321419_6142.mp3"}