{"text":[[{"start":6.35,"text":"I’m writing this in my office in Paris. Which energy sources are powering my laptop? On an overcast morning, solar is supplying only 15 per cent of France’s real-time energy mix, according to the grid operator RTE. Nuclear, at 67 per cent, carries most of the load. Just 1 per cent of my electricity comes from gas. Other fossil fuels contribute nothing. In short, I’m enjoying some of the greenest electricity on Earth. And prices don’t soar when Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz."}],[{"start":37,"text":"All this is thanks to France’s decision, after the oil shock of 1973, to stop relying on expensive fossil fuels from the unreliable Gulf. Under the slogan “In France, we do not have oil, but we have ideas”, the government executed probably the fastest ever build-out of nuclear energy."}],[{"start":56.6,"text":"Now, especially if the current energy crisis lengthens, many other countries could follow France in turning away from fossil fuels. Even if the crisis ends now, the memory of the turmoil of recent weeks will surely hasten the green transition."}],[{"start":71.05,"text":"The history of the economy is largely the history of energy sources. For two centuries, fossil fuels were cheap, reliable drivers of growth. Most countries stuck with them even after the energy crises of the 1970s and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. That’s why global emissions are still rising, whereas they must fall 43 per cent by 2030 to meet the targets of the Paris climate accord of 2015. Global temperatures since 2023 have already averaged over 1.5C above pre-industrial averages, while Europe has warmed by 2.5C. We are still steaming towards disaster. Indeed, the initial response of many governments to the Iran war was to subsidise fossil fuels and bet on a speedy Trump-mullah peace. No government wants the hassle and cost of greening grids or building nuclear plants if they don’t have to."}],[{"start":127.94999999999999,"text":"But with long-term supplies of oil and gas increasingly unpredictable, they may have to. About 80 per cent of the world’s population lives in countries that are net importers of fossil fuels. Those prices have jumped while renewables keep getting cheaper. Last year, they accounted for 85.6 per cent of all new capacity in global power plants. The green transition has already begun. This crisis will accelerate it."}],[{"start":152.54999999999998,"text":"That’s because Trump has pulled off an improbable feat: the oilman’s president has made fossil fuels both expensive and unreliable. People used to worry that addiction to oil made us dependent on Middle Eastern autocracies. We have learnt since 2022 that it also makes us dependent on Trump, Vladimir Putin and Benjamin Netanyahu. Even if the Strait opens tomorrow, will countries want to remain tethered to those people’s whims? Who wants to bet the Strait will never close again? Or that Iran won’t charge huge tolls?"}],[{"start":184.79999999999998,"text":"The so-called “energy trilemma” describes the notion that countries pursue three often contradictory goals: energy that’s secure, competitively priced and green. Suddenly, all those goals point the same way: towards renewables and nuclear. Yes, use of coal will rise too, but judging by the 2022 crisis, only modestly. Coal isn’t just filthy; it usually costs more than renewables."}],[{"start":210.89999999999998,"text":"Europe and the Asia-Pacific need a reliable energy base. That now requires abandoning fossil fuels, and electrifying their economies. They will gladly pay premiums to predictable suppliers like Canada, Norway and Australia, which aren’t about to invade anyone or renege on trade deals because their leader is upset. The biggest winner will be China, chief global supplier of electric vehicles, batteries, solar panels and most other components of the green economy. Cannily, it has remained a reliable trade partner. True, going green will make us more dependent on Beijing. But buying panels or EVs is a softer dependency than needing daily Gulf oil."}],[{"start":248.89999999999998,"text":"The longer the crisis lasts, the stronger government action will become. After all, France only announced its nuclear plan five months after the 1973 shock. But consumers today are already leaping. Desperate for cheap energy, they are switching to solar panels and electric cars. Cutting emissions isn’t the aim, just an accidental byproduct."}],[{"start":270,"text":"A fast green transition seemed an impossible dream. Trump may have found the way to achieve it. The man deserves a prize."}],[{"start":278.05,"text":"Find out about our latest stories first — follow FT Weekend Magazine on X and FT Weekend on Instagram"}],[{"start":291.85,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1778206331_5007.mp3"}