{"text":[[{"start":4.85,"text":"For the past few weeks, the energy market has been in the eye of the storm. The loss of about 14.4mn barrels a day of crude oil output from the Gulf countries in April due to the Strait of Hormuz closure has been partly offset by draining stockpiles and other temporary reliefs. Though parts of Africa and Asia have suffered shortages, in much of the developed world — beyond rising fuel prices and air fares — life has carried on much as normal. But a crunch point is approaching. The International Energy Agency warned last week that oil inventories are being depleted at a record pace. Further scarcities in poor countries and price jumps in rich ones loom within weeks. Governments, companies and consumers need to be ready. "}],[{"start":46.95,"text":"Some reduction in consumption has eased the squeeze up to now — along with some supply boosts. More oil than usual was at sea when the Iran war began; Gulf producers had cranked up output sensing danger ahead. The release of a record 400mn barrels of strategic oil reserves announced by IEA countries in March, running at 2.3mn b/d since mid-April, has been a big help. The US has been exporting more crude and China importing less. And refineries have been using up stocks rather than buying more expensive oil. "}],[{"start":81.15,"text":"But the IEA estimates the world has been consuming about 6mn b/d more crude than is being produced. Global oil stocks are still being drawn down at record pace, while some supply boosts are running out. The oil at sea outside Hormuz has now been delivered, and refinery stocks are dwindling. "}],[{"start":99,"text":"The big strategic reserve release assumed that Hormuz would reopen within weeks; once the release ends, governments that will have drawn down about one-third of their previous 1.2bn-barrel reserves will be wary of draining further stocks too rapidly. Oil companies, traders and refineries still hold more than 3bn barrels, but a big chunk of that is tied up in operating systems, so not available to release. JPMorgan estimates that commercial oil inventories in OECD countries could approach “operational stress levels” by early June."}],[{"start":131,"text":"The price of Brent crude, at about $109 per barrel on Friday, is off its $120-plus peak though still up more than 60 per cent from prewar levels. Prices have been moderated by hopes of a US-Iranian deal to reopen the strait. That looks increasingly unlikely anytime soon. Even if a swift breakthrough allowed shipping to resume, it could take until late in the year to reopen the strait fully and normalise Gulf output."}],[{"start":161.3,"text":"So prices will have to rise to suppress demand, with consumers potentially competing for depleting supplies. The tightest markets are emerging not in crude but in refined products such as jet fuel and diesel. Though refineries have raised jet fuel production, a sharp drop in Middle East supplies has drained key European inventories below five-year lows. Diesel, vital not just as a motor fuel but for farming and factories, could experience sharp jumps in price in Europe, and scarcities in Africa."}],[{"start":190.4,"text":"The IEA says nearly 80 countries have now put emergency measures in place ahead of the looming tipping point. Developing economies may be worst affected; the heavy subsidies they have used to protect consumers from global price rises will become increasingly unaffordable. "}],[{"start":208.85,"text":"But European countries which have prioritised supporting consumer demand through measures such as fuel tax cuts will also — as many Asian counterparts have done — have to take more robust steps to conserve energy, for example through encouraging people to work from home or use more public transport. More countries are going to have to learn to live within their more limited energy means."}],[{"start":235.35,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1779072376_7791.mp3"}