{"text":[[{"start":6.5,"text":"British tech investor James Anderson has warned the curtain is falling on two decades of extraordinary growth among the top US software and internet stocks, as massive AI investments “implode” their cash flows to the lasting benefit of chipmakers such as Nvidia. "}],[{"start":23.2,"text":"The spoils of the trillion-dollar AI spending frenzy by the likes of Google, Meta, Amazon and Microsoft will flow disproportionately to a small number of dominant hardware suppliers such as Nvidia, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company and ASML, Anderson told the FT. "}],[{"start":43.9,"text":"The former star Baillie Gifford fund manager — who now manages part of the billionaire Agnelli family’s investments — predicted the current squeeze in AI chip supply would last far longer than investors in the highly cyclical semiconductor industry have become used to. "}],[{"start":59.9,"text":"“The near certainties of the 20-year dominance of the exponential platforms is over,” Anderson said in an annual letter to investors in the $1.6bn Lingotto Innovation Strategy, which he runs with Morgan Samet."}],[{"start":74,"text":"The era of the “Magnificent 7” tech companies — usually defined as Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Nvidia and Tesla — “has now changed for both good and ill” with Silicon Valley’s costly head-to-head battle for AI leadership, Anderson and Samet said in the letter. "}],[{"start":91.5,"text":"“The fundamentals of the platforms have imploded . . . There is no obvious path back to low capex and high cash flow.” "}],[{"start":99.05,"text":"Analysts at Morgan Stanley have estimated that the Big Tech “hyperscalers” will spend about $2tn between 2024 and 2027 as they race to build out data centre capacity for training and delivering AI systems. "}],[{"start":114.39999999999999,"text":"The AI trade has already upended the tech industry’s Wall Street hierarchy, as investors have punished traditional software companies and driven a huge rally in chip stocks and their suppliers in recent weeks. The PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index (SOX) is up 18 per cent in the past month and 57 per cent so far this year. "}],[{"start":135.85,"text":"Lingotto Innovation Strategy retains a “sizeable” position in Nvidia and a “small amount” of Tesla, Anderson said. "}],[{"start":143.75,"text":"In an interview, Anderson — who in October warned that a “disconcerting” rise in the private valuations of AI start-ups brought echoes of the dotcom bubble — said that he would not “rule out” buying Anthropic stock in an initial public offering that could come this year. "}],[{"start":158.95,"text":"“I think it’s fair to say at this stage it’s far more likely for cultural reasons to be Anthropic than OpenAI,” he said. “It’s not just the current momentum. I do think that this is a task [AI development] in which one has to take the culture of the company very seriously.”"}],[{"start":175.5,"text":"But he contrasted the constant jockeying for leadership in AI companies with the “extraordinary” concentration of their hardware suppliers, with the world’s reliance on TSMC “still underestimated”. "}],[{"start":187.35,"text":"“It’s almost impossible to find your way around these monopolies,” he said. “Elon [Musk] is out there saying that he’ll get there in a few years’ time and there are attempts to revive Intel. But I think that is going to require extraordinary skills, persistence and resources, and intellectual property as well.” "}],[{"start":206.5,"text":"Elon Musk in March launched his ambitious “TeraFab” project to build a chip manufacturing plant in Texas that can supply SpaceX and Tesla. Regulatory filings in Texas have suggested the facility could cost as much as $119bn. "}],[{"start":221.95,"text":"TSMC is also increasing its capacity to meet demand from customers such as Nvidia and Google, prompting some investors to fear the current supply squeeze could quickly turn into a glut if the AI race slowed. "}],[{"start":234,"text":"“It would be naive to think there isn’t some form of [semiconductor] cycle,” said Anderson. “Do I think that there might be room for a huge surprise about just how vicious that is? I think there might be a pleasant surprise on that score.”"}],[{"start":246.4,"text":"Samet told the FT that the pace of AI development had “exceeded even our very ambitious and high expectations” after reaching a tipping point at the end of last year. "}],[{"start":256.45,"text":"Despite the “huge market ahead” for the likes of Anthropic, Samet said dominant hardware suppliers would be able to consolidate their position because of their ability to keep raising prices. "}],[{"start":267.8,"text":"“Pricing power is the ability for you to continue on until someone says no,” she said. “Right now, no one can say no.” "}],[{"start":283.95,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1779348980_6023.mp3"}