{"text":[[{"start":4.9,"text":"After several months of negotiations with the US that seem to have gone nowhere, Cuba faces a crunch point. The country’s economy is suffering the sort of collapse usually seen only during wartime, partly due to pressure from the US and partly due to its own mismanagement. Many households have only a few hours of power a day and some other basic services are crumbling. At least 10 per cent of the population has left since Covid, which accelerated the slump; more could depart as the summer heat aggravates the misery."}],[{"start":35.75,"text":"Isolated and friendless, Cuba has little choice but to strike an agreement with the US that would see it begin to liberalise its economy and introduce modest political reforms. The alternative is a worsening humanitarian crisis."}],[{"start":50.4,"text":"While the talks have been ongoing, Havana appears to have been playing for time, perhaps hoping that a major setback for the Trump administration in the midterm elections will lead Washington to focus more at home. "}],[{"start":62.7,"text":"It is perhaps not surprising that Cuba’s leadership, inflexible at the best of times, has been reluctant to bend. Inasmuch as the revolution still retains some legitimacy, it is through its reputation for defying American bullying. "}],[{"start":78.15,"text":"That bullying has become even more intense. Following its military intervention in Venezuela, which used to send Havana subsidised oil, the US has been operating a partial blockade of energy imports into Cuba. Washington has also begun to raise the prospect of taking military action, with the indictment on murder charges of former president Raúl Castro last month providing a potential legal pretext. "}],[{"start":103.2,"text":"It is barely discussed in American public life, but this is a deeply cruel way to exert diplomatic pressure — the modern-day equivalent of a siege. Even the best-run economy in the world would run into extreme economic difficulties if oil imports were completely shut off. "}],[{"start":120.05000000000001,"text":"Secretary of state Marco Rubio last month slammed Havana for economic incompetence while simultaneously imposing new sanctions that aim to cut off some of the few methods Cuba still has of earning foreign currency."}],[{"start":133.45000000000002,"text":"The problem for the Cuban leadership is that the country is anything but well run. Even amid US sanctions, a large part of Cuba’s economic problems is homegrown. Enterprise is constantly stifled by the most lethargic and sprawling of bureaucracies. Gaesa, a company controlled by the military, dominates the strategic heights of the economy, squeezing out any challengers. "}],[{"start":155.45000000000002,"text":"The crisis in the country’s energy system is partly the consequence of a state-led decision to prioritise building new hotels rather than investing in additional power plants."}],[{"start":165.45000000000002,"text":"Whatever the dubious morality of Washington’s methods, the agenda it is pushing for Cuba’s economy is actually in Havana’s interests. To have any chance of reviving living standards, Cuba needs at the very least to allow the private sector to play a much larger role in the economy — which would mean reducing the power of both the state bureaucracy and Gaesa. It will also need to permit more foreign investment, including from the diaspora in the US."}],[{"start":191.9,"text":"The prospect of US intervention if Cuba does not agree to take such steps is also very real — despite the many setbacks suffered in Iran and the high risk that it could lead Washington into a new quagmire."}],[{"start":204.05,"text":"Cuba’s leaders fear that opening the economy will unleash broader forces that could sweep them from power. They have been able to avoid taking difficult decisions through the benevolence of outside powers — first the Soviet Union, and latterly Venezuela. But such assistance has vanished. Even the Chinese have long urged them to liberalise the economy."}],[{"start":225.20000000000002,"text":"In the minds of the Cuban leadership, to cede to Washington’s pressure would be a humiliation — and a betrayal of what they have always stood for. But they are running out of options."}],[{"start":242.70000000000002,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1780451804_8683.mp3"}