How far will Iran go for the Strait of Hormuz?

{"text":[[{"start":11.15,"text":"Some 15 years ago, as world powers grew increasingly alarmed by Iran’s nuclear programme, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ordered his military advisers to prepare for a drastic scenario."}],[{"start":22.55,"text":"“He called me and asked for a plan to close the Strait of Hormuz,” Major General Rahim Safavi, a military adviser to Iran’s late supreme leader, told state television this week. “I asked for three months, but he reduced the deadline to one . . . He foresaw that one day we might have to use this.”"}],[{"start":40.2,"text":"Safavi said that the Islamic republic’s military planners would go on to develop strategies to block not only the Gulf, but the Sea of Oman, Red Sea and even the eastern Mediterranean."}],[{"start":52.050000000000004,"text":"Those threats were never used, and the world spent subsequent years fixated on reining in the nuclear programme, which was the subject of sanctions, fraught diplomacy and ultimately US air strikes during Israel’s 12-day war last year."}],[{"start":67.05000000000001,"text":"Safavi’s account, however, helps explain how the strait has in a matter of months superseded Iran’s nuclear programme as the most pressing — and seemingly intractable — challenge in the US-Iran conflict."}],[{"start":80.45000000000002,"text":"With its main enrichment sites bombed last year, Tehran has for the first time implemented Khamenei’s plan for the strait, turning it into its most effective way to inflict pain on Washington and its allies. It also currently appears less willing to compromise on its claims over the waterway than in the nuclear stand-off that drove so many years of tension."}],[{"start":101.55000000000001,"text":"“The nuclear issue can be negotiated. Hormuz cannot,” one regime insider said. “The only regret now is that we should have closed the strait years ago, when the US first imposed sanctions.”"}],[{"start":null,"text":"

"}],[{"start":113.55000000000001,"text":"Iran’s threats to close the strait had largely been viewed as rhetoric. Before last year, the country had never been directly attacked by either the US or Israel, and regime officials argued that such a step would only be considered in an existential war."}],[{"start":128.20000000000002,"text":"That moment came, however, with the opening strikes of the US-Israeli assault on Iran in February, which killed Khamenei and several senior leaders. US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu framed the campaign as one that could bring down the Islamic republic."}],[{"start":148.50000000000003,"text":"As a result, Iran retaliated by attacking not only regional US bases, Israel and Gulf states, but commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas passed before the conflict — triggering the worst energy crisis in years."}],[{"start":167.00000000000003,"text":"It was the regime’s determination to maintain leverage over the strait that also proved a key factor in the unravelling of a June deal designed to lay the foundations for talks over a final settlement, including the nuclear programme."}],[{"start":181.00000000000003,"text":"Under a memorandum of understanding, the US agreed to lift its blockade of Iranian ports and Iran agreed to allow the gradual resumption of commercial shipping. But after Washington encouraged ships to transit along Oman’s coast, Iranian forces began targeting vessels they accused of using an “unauthorised” route, insisting the strait should remain under Iranian control as long as the war continued."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":204.35000000000002,"text":"The US responded with air strikes and renewed its blockade, with days of tit-for-tat bombing threatening to spiral into another full-scale conflict before the discussions over Iran’s nuclear programme have even begun."}],[{"start":217.55,"text":"“This is the first time since the US started using economic coercion against Iran in the 1980s, that Iran has been able to retaliate in kind by putting pressure on the American economy,” said Crisis Group’s Ali Vaez. “So they are keen on using this precedent to basically signal to the US that, ‘If you start another war against us, you would have to go through another economic shock’ . . . They see that as their main deterrence.”"}],[{"start":243.20000000000002,"text":"Iran insists that, as part of any future deal, it and Oman alone should decide how the waterway is managed, arguing that US attempts to establish a separate shipping lane could be used for military purposes. Tehran has also said that it would charge ships “service fees” in the future, citing the need to cover security and environmental costs."}],[{"start":263.6,"text":"“Our real war is in the Strait of Hormuz, which is more important than the nuclear issue,” Hamid-Reza Hajibabaei, a senior member of Iran’s parliament, told local media this week after lawmakers announced they were considering new legislation to formalise governance of the waterway. “The Strait of Hormuz is the summit of the Iranian nation’s resistance against the US.”"}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":287.20000000000005,"text":"Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps this week threatened to expand their campaign beyond the strait, warning that the US and its allies “should expect the closure of other oil and gas export routes”."}],[{"start":300.6,"text":"The unravelling of the June agreement has also exposed a growing asymmetry in the two sides’ negotiating positions. Washington is pressing for a rapid agreement to restore shipping, with Trump under domestic pressure to lower energy prices before US midterm elections in November."}],[{"start":317.6,"text":"Tehran, however, believes it can afford to negotiate slowly and that the regime has a higher pain threshold than Washington. Iran has held numerous rounds of talks in the past, including those that led to the 2015 agreement with world powers. It was also in talks with the Trump administration before both last year’s 12-day war and the latest conflict, although huge gaps remained between the parties."}],[{"start":341.55,"text":"A senior western diplomat in Tehran said the US-Israeli attacks against nuclear facilities had paradoxically reduced the sense of urgency surrounding Iran’s nuclear programme. That does not mean, however, that the country has lost either the technical expertise or the capacity to rebuild, the diplomat said. "}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":360.5,"text":"Trump, who has consistently said Iran must dismantle its nuclear programme, this week threatened to target a deeply buried nuclear facility beneath Kolang Gazla — known as Pickaxe Mountain — in central Iran."}],[{"start":373.25,"text":"Under the June memorandum of understanding, Iran again agreed to talks over the programme and at a minimum to downblend its stockpile of more than 9,000kg of enriched uranium, including 440kg at levels close to weapons grade. But regime insiders say the Islamic republic remains resistant to shipping this uranium overseas, which Trump has demanded."}],[{"start":396.8,"text":"“The benefit the strait has is something that cannot be taken away from them, so it’s a guarantee that whatever Trump signs on the nuclear issue will be actually implemented,” said Vali Nasr, a former US official now at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies."}],[{"start":412.90000000000003,"text":"Any nuclear talks are expected to be hugely complex and lengthy, given the enormous gaps and distrust between the two sides. Yet such a prospect appears increasingly secondary to the battle over the strait."}],[{"start":424.85,"text":"“Iran is ready to reach an agreement on the nuclear programme,” the regime insider said. “But we are unlikely to get that far because Iran will not compromise over its control of the strait. A deal now looks close to impossible.”"}],[{"start":443.15,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1784272810_2419.mp3"}