Iran eyes military targets in Europe if Donald Trump escalates war, insiders say

{"text":[[{"start":10.68,"text":"Iran has weighed attacking US military targets in Europe should Donald Trump escalate the war, according to people close to the regime, as Tehran considers its options to increase the stakes of the conflict."}],[{"start":22.12,"text":"Two regime insiders told the FT that Iranian forces have assessed striking US assets in south-eastern European countries such as Bulgaria, which last month approved the use of its Bezmer air base for US refuelling aircraft."}],[{"start":36.04,"text":"One of the insiders added that Cyprus, where a British air base was struck by a drone in March, was also among potential targets for retaliation in the event of any renewed US offensive."}],[{"start":46.8,"text":"The insiders said Iranian forces have separately examined attacking subsea fibre-optic cables in the Strait of Hormuz in the event of an escalation."}],[{"start":55.64,"text":"The threats reflect the defiant mood in Tehran, where many within the regime increasingly see a resumption of the war as a matter of when, not if."}],[{"start":64.08,"text":"Negotiations to reopen the strait have stalled, and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei last week elevated hardliners to top security and military posts. Trump on Tuesday said there were “no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled” with Tehran."}],[{"start":79.96,"text":"The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and other military commanders have warned that, in any new full-scale conflict, Iran would move beyond its previous strategy of attacking US military assets, energy facilities and other infrastructure in the Middle East to targets further afield."}],[{"start":null,"text":"

"}],[{"start":96,"text":"The guards last month threatened the UK over American use of British military bases, saying that “any base that is used to launch an attack on Iranian territory will be considered a legitimate target”."}],[{"start":106.84,"text":"Sidharth Kaushal, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute think-tank in London, described the threat posed by Iranian missiles to targets in Europe and elsewhere as “real, but limited”."}],[{"start":118.28,"text":"Iran could deploy medium-range ballistic missiles against US assets in southern and southeastern Europe, such as its Shahab series, but Kaushal said these would struggle to do damage at longer ranges."}],[{"start":129.68,"text":"Iran’s retaliation would depend on Washington’s actions, according to the insiders."}],[{"start":133.8,"text":"One said the regime was preparing a plan to expand the conflict further were Trump to make good on previous threats to attack Iranian infrastructure. The US president last month said Washington would destroy an Iranian bridge or power plant every time the Islamic republic targeted a ship in the strait."}],[{"start":152.4,"text":"The second insider said Iran would place “no limits” on its response in the event of US aggression. “Should the US go too far, Iran will defend itself at any price, go beyond the region and hit Europe too,” the person said."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":167.4,"text":"Iran has demonstrated its willingness to attack distant targets. In the weeks after the US and Israel launched the war in February, Washington accused Tehran of firing multiple missiles — none of which reached their target — at Diego Garcia, a joint US-UK military base in the Indian Ocean some 4,000km away."}],[{"start":186.76,"text":"Turkey in March said Nato’s air defences had intercepted several ballistic missiles launched from Iran, while the UK’s air base in Akrotiri, Cyprus, was struck by a drone the same month. Western officials at the time said they suspected it was an Iranian drone fired by regional proxy forces rather than Tehran itself."}],[{"start":206.24,"text":"The insiders said an Iranian attack last month on the US base in Jordan, which killed three American service members, was the most precise long-range attack the Islamic republic has carried out and demonstrated its capability to hit targets over longer distances."}],[{"start":221.04,"text":"“This was also a message to Europe: it can receive missiles, so it should know where it should stand in this war,” the first insider said. “A very big mistake, such as hitting our infrastructure, could make the war go beyond the region and reach Europe.”"}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":235.08,"text":"A June memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran fell apart last month after Tehran attacked vessels in the strait and both sides accused each other of violating the interim deal, leading to rounds of tit-for-tat strikes and a renewed US blockade on Iranian ports."}],[{"start":252.36,"text":"Weeks of diplomatic efforts have failed to yield a breakthrough to reopen the waterway and resume negotiations over a broader deal to end the war, and Trump has grown increasingly frustrated over the stalemate."}],[{"start":263.2,"text":"Rusi’s Kaushal said heavier-duty missiles could also be deployed, but would have to carry a lighter payload to travel far enough — meaning damage would be minimal."}],[{"start":270.38,"text":"He suggested “it would be more fruitful for them to work through proxies”, which include militant groups such as Shia militias in Iraq, Hizbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen."}],[{"start":280.8,"text":"Douglas Barrie at the International Institute for Strategic Studies said: “Those strikes they attempted on Diego Garcia this year are kind of indicative that they have got weapons with ranges greater than 2,000km.”"}],[{"start":293.4,"text":"“How many of these they actually hold is a different question, and whether or not they would be willing to use even a handful to make some kind of grandstanding statement is an open question.”"}],[{"start":303.76,"text":"“The risk is that the missiles fail or are shot down, so how would they benefit? The longer the range, the harder it is to be really accurate.”"}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":312.32,"text":"Some within the Iranian regime worry Tehran is overplaying its hand. Many hardliners within the system believe the US cannot be trusted to implement any deal, and Iran must inflict a greater cost on Washington to ensure it meets its obligations of any final settlement."}],[{"start":328.84,"text":"This includes Mohsen Rezaei, a former Guards commander who Khamenei last week appointed as the country’s top security official."}],[{"start":336.76,"text":"Iranian analysts interpreted the move as a sign that figures such as Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the country’s top negotiator, have been pushed aside for now as prospects for a lasting agreement appear increasingly bleak."}],[{"start":348.92,"text":"Iran “is sending a clear message that if you don’t reach an agreement with Ghalibaf, you have to deal with Rezaei”, said the second insider. “The message is: ‘Don’t be mad, because I’m madder than you are.’”"}],[{"start":360.32,"text":"Illustration and cartography by Ian Bott and Steven Bernard"}],[{"start":370.52,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1787125232_4949.mp3"}