Germany’s Merz on the ropes after far right delivers devastating blow

{"text":[[{"start":7.623,"text":"Whether or not the far-right Alternative for Germany party has a path to power in the small eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, its crushing victory in Sunday’s regional election, according to preliminary results, is a terrible reflection on the country’s crumbling political mainstream. It spells serious trouble for Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his Christian Democratic Union, whose share of the vote collapsed."}],[{"start":31.673,"text":"A score of 44 per cent would be the highest outcome for a far-right movement in a regional or national election since the second world war — and this for a party whose regional branch has been categorised as extremist by Germany’s domestic security service."}],[{"start":45.771,"text":"The CDU vote has sunk even further than polls predicted before the election, more than halving to 17.4 per cent since the last state election in 2021."}],[{"start":57.2,"text":"When Merz first campaigned for his party’s leadership in 2018, he said he would halve the AfD’s electoral support. He later retreated from his boast as the AfD pursued its relentless advance. But how quickly the electoral tables have turned on his centre-right party. Many Christian Democrat MPs across Germany will now be worrying about their jobs."}],[{"start":null,"text":"

"}],[{"start":76.96,"text":"National poll averages put the CDU at 21 per cent and the AfD at 28 per cent — a reversal of their scores in last year’s federal parliament election. Only a third of Germans now support the two parties — the CDU and the centre-left Social Democrats — who together run the federal government."}],[{"start":95.788,"text":"The AfD’s hopes of taking power in Saxony-Anhalt appear initially to rest on the leftwing nationalist Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), which is projected to just clear the threshold with 5.1 per cent. Its founder Sahra Wagenknecht has suggested her party could abstain in an investiture vote for the AfD and support it issue by issue thereafter."}],[{"start":117.28,"text":"She has long criticised the “firewall”, whereby other parties have refused to co-operate with the AfD, deeming it a threat to democracy."}],[{"start":125.597,"text":"But Ulrich Siegmund, AfD leader in the state, also said he would try to lure MPs from other parties. This is not an empty threat. The firewall will now be tested, possibly to destruction. An alternative regional government to the AfD would require the assent, and possibly involvement, of the far left, which the CDU has also traditionally opposed. Some local CDU members might even jump ship to the AfD to prevent it."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":152.88,"text":"Christian Democrat critics of the firewall say it has proved self-defeating. In an era of political fragmentation and shrinking support for once broad-based mainstream parties, it forces the CDU to share power with leftwing opponents in often dysfunctional, lowest common denominator coalitions. Voters who want more conservative politics turn to the AfD. Rather than staunching the flow of support to the far right, critics say it encourages it."}],[{"start":179.15,"text":"CDU supporters of the policy point to extremist elements in the AfD as a threat to Germany’s democratic order, and to the party’s support for Russia and hostility to the EU and Nato as anathema. Merz will come under intense pressure from some parts of his party to drop or at least soften the firewall. Whether he does or doesn’t, the CDU could splinter."}],[{"start":203.603,"text":"The AfD’s stunning win leaves Merz himself on the ropes. CDU figures were already losing faith in his leadership after a botched reshuffle this summer. His record-low poll ratings are dragging the party to oblivion. Voters are turned off by his haughtiness and failure to deliver anything close to his bold claims. The clamour for a leadership change could prove irresistible, especially if the CDU crashes in other regional elections this month."}],[{"start":226.664,"text":"Hendrik Wüst, the 51-year-old CDU premier of North Rhine-Westphalia, is the man to watch. He would offer generational change and broaden his party’s appeal, especially among women. But whether he could woo back conservatives while reinvigorating a coalition with the centre-left is less clear."}],[{"start":244.472,"text":"More rural and elderly, Saxony-Anhalt in former communist East Germany is not representative of the rest of the country. But the strength of support for an extremist party there is an indictment of the political centre’s failure to come up with compelling answers to Germany’s problems, especially the flatlining economy. Unless it can raise its game quickly, it is in deep trouble."}],[{"start":273.44,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1788746394_4910.mp3"}