{"text":[[{"start":5.94,"text":"It is rare for provincial German elections to be watched all over the world. But the huge surge in support for the Alternative for Germany party in Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday is truly an event of global significance. The AfD’s Saxony branch has been classified as rightwing extremist by Germany’s domestic intelligence services. Some in the party flirt with Nazi imagery and slogans. Nonetheless, the governments of Russia and the US — two nations that take great pride in their role in defeating Nazism — are applauding its rise."}],[{"start":38.4,"text":"Vladimir Putin’s circle had been eagerly anticipating an AfD breakthrough in the Saxony-Anhalt elections. Last month, Kirill Dmitriev, a key Russian intermediary with the Trump administration, posted excitedly on X: “Germany Awakens on September sixth”. Both the language and the date of that post seemed significant. “Germany Awake” was a Nazi slogan. Dmitriev’s post appeared on August 23 — the anniversary of the signing of the 1939 Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union."}],[{"start":70.24,"text":"Perhaps that was just an unfortunate coincidence. Perhaps not. Either way, Russia has concrete reasons to support the AfD. The party is campaigning to end German aid to Ukraine, restore economic ties with Russia and an increase in Russian-language teaching in German schools. One of its senior officials in Saxony-Anhalt was discomfited when reporters spotted a Russian army mug in his office."}],[{"start":93.12,"text":"As well as being a cheerleader for the AfD, Dmitriev is a key linkman between the Kremlin and the White House. He was one of five principals seated round the table in Moscow on Saturday as Putin received Steve Witkoff, Trump’s peace emissary."}],[{"start":107.04,"text":"Like the Kremlin, the Trump administration has flirted energetically with the German far right. At the Munich Security Conference last year, JD Vance, the US vice-president, met Alice Weidel, the leader of the AfD — while pointedly not finding time to meet Olaf Scholz, Germany’s then chancellor."}],[{"start":124.718,"text":"The US national security strategy published late last year claimed that Europe faces “civilizational erasure” — in large part because of its tolerance of mass migration. There is no doubt that Angela Merkel, Germany’s then chancellor, badly mishandled the 2015 refugee crisis. (And, yes, I wrote that at the time.) The surge in migration played a big role in driving up the AfD’s support. Party officials now campaign for “remigration” — a usefully ambiguous term that could mean anything from deporting illegal immigrants to attempting to expel all German citizens with an immigrant background."}],[{"start":160.64,"text":"Far-right and anti-immigrant parties have already entered governments elsewhere in Europe — including Austria and the Netherlands. But the history and size of Germany give its political trajectory a special significance. The memory of Nazism means that Germany’s mainstream parties remain absolutely determined to maintain a “firewall” against the AfD — and not to go into coalition with the far right. That firewall may be about to crack in Saxony-Anhalt, where the AfD fell just three seats short of an absolute majority. Even if it holds, by forming a grand coalition, excluding a political party that got 44 per cent of the vote, over 25 per cent more than its nearest rivals, the CDU, is morally and practically difficult."}],[{"start":203,"text":"The AfD’s nationwide support is significantly below its level in Saxony-Anhalt. But it nonetheless regularly tops polls. Even if the traditional centre parties continue to prop up the firewall, they may start adopting AfD-lite policies on issues such as migration, the EU or the war in Ukraine."}],[{"start":221.82,"text":"Any such development could shake the continent. German rearmament is a signature policy of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s government and critical to European efforts to deter Russia. But the rise of a Russia-friendly party may ultimately throw it into question."}],[{"start":236.1,"text":"The resurgence of a nationalist party in Germany could also pose profound questions for the EU. The AfD, for example, has pledged to pull out of the single European currency — and potentially out of the EU itself. Any possible disintegration of the EU would be welcomed in Russia and the Trump White House. But it would be greeted with dismay by liberal democracies outside Europe — such as Canada and Japan — that look to the EU to counterbalance the nationalism and power politics of Russia, China and a Trump-led America."}],[{"start":265.82,"text":"The worst-case scenarios now have to be considered. But they are far from inevitable. Despite the confident predictions of Weidel that Merz will be out of power by the end of the year, the AfD is still a considerable way from achieving national power."}],[{"start":280.68,"text":"Indeed for all the interest that the party is currently generating, the biggest story in European politics in the coming year is likely to be France — not Germany. The Rassemblement National looks poised for victory in next year’s French presidential election — with Marine Le Pen, the party’s standard-bearer, currently leading in opinion polls."}],[{"start":300.54,"text":"Le Pen has done a lot to try and moderate her image and has repudiated the AfD’s talk of “remigration” and its revisionist statements about Nazism. But she too has a history of friendliness towards America’s Maga movement and towards Russia."}],[{"start":314.76,"text":"The rise of the AfD is an extraordinary story. But Putin and Trump’s most immediate hope for changing Europe still lies in France, not Germany."}],[{"start":327.86,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1788829632_6876.mp3"}