{"text":[[{"start":5.24,"text":"The landslide victory for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in the regional election in Saxony-Anhalt is a seismic event in German politics that has sent shockwaves well beyond the small eastern state. Eighty years after the demise of a Nazi dictatorship that unleashed the horrors of the second world war and the Holocaust, 44 per cent of voters backed a party whose regional branch is classified as rightwing extremist by the domestic intelligence service and which refuses to draw a clear line between the Third Reich and the Federal Republic. The radical right is on the march across most of Europe, but Germany’s uniquely dark past makes it uniquely alarming."}],[{"start":45.68,"text":"It is tempting to downplay the shock by pointing to the particularities of a relatively poor, rural and elderly electorate in Germany’s former communist east. But the AfD’s victory was driven by the same discontent with the mainstream coalition running the federal government that is spreading across the rest of the country. The AfD is the most popular party in Germany with 27 per cent support. It is not on the cusp of power nationally, but under current conditions its rise looks inexorable."}],[{"start":75.08,"text":"The firewall, a well-intentioned policy of non-cooperation with the far right, which is considered a threat to democracy, has turned into a trap for the mainstream parties, particularly the Christian Democratic Union of Chancellor Friedrich Merz. As support for the CDU shrinks, it is forced to share power invariably with its leftwing opponents in dysfunctional coalitions, whose quarrelling and meagre results drive votes to the AfD, further reducing the scope for compromise between the centrist parties. The firewall has failed to stem the AfD’s advance and is probably furthering it. The alternatives, though, are all bad given the far right’s current strength."}],[{"start":113.12,"text":"The AfD is three seats short of a majority in Saxony-Anhalt. The least bad outcome there would be for the party to take power with the backing of the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), a small leftwing nationalist movement that rejects the firewall approach. An AfD regional government would lack the powers to enact some of its more outlandish policies, such as abolishing the right to asylum or renewing energy imports from Russia."}],[{"start":137.72,"text":"To be sure, it could be an extremely uncomfortable time for Germans of immigrant backgrounds and other minorities living in the state. But extra vigilance from the courts and civil society could help to keep a far-right regional government in check. The far right would pose less danger in power regionally than nationally and executive responsibility could deflate its support. In any case, its opponents lack the seats to form an alternative majority. To try to do so would look undemocratic, given AfD’s vote share, and could backfire electorally."}],[{"start":171.1,"text":"The Saxony-Anhalt earthquake also demands change at a national level. The CDU suffered a crushing defeat, losing more than half of the votes it won in 2021. Merz candidly said the result would shake his party to its foundations. There could be no “business as usual” from him or the federal government."}],[{"start":189.84,"text":"It seems increasingly implausible, however, that the most unpopular chancellor in modern times after only 16 months in office has the right leadership skills and ideas to reinvigorate his faltering coalition with the Social Democrats and win back the confidence of the electorate. Above all, the CDU has failed to come up with a new strategy for an export-oriented economy that is undergoing wrenching change. Germany prizes government stability and has no tradition of changing leaders midcourse. But Merz must urgently show the political centre can still deliver."}],[{"start":223.52,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1788838685_8722.mp3"}