IEA warns of ‘lost period’ in global oil demand

{"text":[[{"start":8.3,"text":"The International Energy Agency no longer expects the Strait of Hormuz to reopen to shipping this year, warning that 2026 and 2027 will be “a lost period” for growth in global oil demand."}],[{"start":20.950000000000003,"text":"The IEA said it expected global demand to fall by 2.5mn barrels a day this year, a much bigger drop than its previous estimate, as soaring prices for refined fuels put a brake on consumption."}],[{"start":33.25,"text":"The impasse in negotiations between the US and Iran means that shipping through the narrow waterway critical for global oil trading will remain restricted throughout 2026, the IEA said on Friday. "}],[{"start":45.8,"text":"It said last month that global demand would fall by about 1.6mn b/d in 2026, with flows through the strait returning to normal before the end of the year."}],[{"start":57,"text":"“This downgrade results overwhelmingly from the impasse in negotiations between the United States and Iran, continued disruptions to Gulf exports, and record fuel prices, especially for diesel, that will increasingly dent demand,” the IEA said on Friday."}],[{"start":72.35,"text":"Average oil demand was set to recover by just 2.6mn b/d in 2027, to only marginally above 2025 levels, said the IEA. “This would render 2026-27 essentially a lost period for oil demand growth,” it said."}],[{"start":null,"text":"

"}],[{"start":88.25,"text":"Brent crude surged as much as 14 per cent this week to trade at almost $110 a barrel on Friday, its highest level since May, before falling back to about $105. Prices jumped this week as the battle escalated between the US and Iran for control of the Strait of Hormuz, and as Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen advanced on the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, which controls access to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal."}],[{"start":115.4,"text":"Prices for refined products, such as diesel, have rocketed, as refining capacity has been curtailed in the Gulf and by Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries."}],[{"start":127.60000000000001,"text":"Prices for oil products were poised to rise further, the IEA said. “With a refining system stretched to capacity, there appear to be limited options available to avert a further tightening of supplies and higher prices in the coming months,” the agency warned in its report. “The latest data provides a sobering assessment.”"}],[{"start":147.3,"text":"Higher refined product prices are expected to erode oil demand as price-sensitive buyers cut back usage. "}],[{"start":155.10000000000002,"text":"On the supply side, global oil production fell 1.6mn b/d to just over 100mn b/d in August, as more than 10mn b/d of Gulf output remained shut in, said the IEA. Overall, oil supply will fall 5.7mn b/d this year, the IEA said, “with the expected recovery in the Gulf now deferred until 2027”."}],[{"start":178.8,"text":"Ukraine’s “unrelenting attacks” on Russian infrastructure crimped the country’s total exports by 410,000 b/d in August, according to the IEA, taking them to their lowest level since 2018."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":192.95000000000002,"text":"As of August, the IEA said it had released 320mn barrels of the 400mn barrels it said would be released in March, as it began the largest release of strategic oil reserves in its history in a bid to calm supply concerns. "}],[{"start":208.20000000000002,"text":"The pace at which oil from the reserves is entering global markets has slowed to a trickle. Just 20mn barrels were released in August, down from 90mn barrels in May, according to the IEA’s latest data."}],[{"start":229.6,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1789127822_6539.mp3"}