{"text":[[{"start":6.6,"text":"The latest crisis in relations between the US and Ukraine has strong echoes of the darkest days of 2025. The infamous televised Oval Office confrontation between JD Vance, Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy crystallised fears that America was now on Russia’s side. Those worries flared up again with the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska."}],[{"start":29.76,"text":"European leaders responded to these previous crises with determined Trump-whispering. They embraced Zelenskyy and coached him on how to sound grateful and conciliatory in his dealings with the US president. And they deluged Trump with phone calls and flattery, in an effort to take the roughest edges off US policy."}],[{"start":48.2,"text":"This time around things look different. Zelenskyy is much less restrained in his remarks about Trump. He has directly accused the US of throttling satellite services in Ukraine and suggested Trump is attracted to autocrats. The Ukrainians have also defied a US demand to stop hitting Russian energy facilities. This weekend saw some of the biggest strikes yet on oil facilities in St Petersburg."}],[{"start":72.84,"text":"Zelenskyy’s outspoken statements may be driven, in large part, by anger and exasperation. But there is also probably some calculation behind his change in tone. With Trump weakening in the polls and Republicans apparently heading for defeat in the midterm elections, it could be worth appealing to Americans over the heads of the president and his cronies. On the campaign trail, even some Republican candidates have questioned Trump’s plan to buy Russian diesel. Polls suggest Americans do not share Trump’s admiration for Vladimir Putin."}],[{"start":102.62,"text":"There is also an important shift under way in Europe’s approach to Russia. There is a growing consensus in European capitals that the continent’s leaders can no longer tolerate a situation where only the Americans are talking to Putin. Channels with the Russians are already open and a call between European leaders and Putin may happen soon."}],[{"start":120.88,"text":"The change in approach reflects a belief that Trump-whispering is increasingly ineffective — particularly given the president’s preoccupation with the midterms and his anger at what he regards as Europe’s failure to help him in Iran. The Europeans also fear US policy is largely driven by a desire for business deals with Russia, rather than a coherent security vision."}],[{"start":140.84,"text":"Europe’s own approach currently rests on two props — support for Ukraine and sanctions on Russia. Both policies are regarded as crucial, particularly as US support for Ukraine weakens. But direct European involvement in peacemaking efforts is also increasingly seen as a necessity — particularly since it is European money that is keeping Ukraine afloat, following the cut-off in US financial aid."}],[{"start":165.8,"text":"The Europeans seem confident Putin will be willing to talk. But the Russian leader himself is believed to be floating the idea of a three-way summit between himself, Trump and Xi Jinping of China. That kind of summit would play to Russia’s great-power pretensions — and would keep Ukraine and its most important supporters out of the room."}],[{"start":184.68,"text":"Russian wariness about engaging with the Europeans may be increased by the kind of proposals that could be put on the table. If and when European talks with Putin take place, the Russian leader is likely to be presented with two possible paths to peace. The first is to freeze the conflict on the current line of control — and in return get a guarantee that Ukraine will never join Nato. The second option would be for Ukraine to cede the rest of the Donbas to Russia — but then to join Nato."}],[{"start":212.06,"text":"Both of those choices would be regarded as a betrayal by some in Ukraine. But, given the strong desire for peace in his country, Zelenskyy might be able to sell either idea. The Europeans are much less confident that Putin is ready to accept either. But they still think it is important to start talking directly to the Russians."}],[{"start":229.4,"text":"Alongside the diplomatic rethink, there is also growing European determination to become less dependent on America for crucial capabilities — in particular, the satellite coverage provided by Starshield and Starlink. Two Finnish companies — Nokia and Iceye — this month announced a partnership to develop satellite communications networks for military and civilian purposes. But the first launches are not expected until 2028 — so that cannot solve Ukraine’s immediate problems."}],[{"start":256.8,"text":"For the moment, the Zelenskyy government remains very reliant on US satellite capabilities both to defend against incoming attacks — and to provide information for offensive operations. Indeed, the Ukrainians have not given up hope that they can persuade the US to extend satellite assistance, allowing them to target missile launch sites deep inside Russia."}],[{"start":275.86,"text":"The fact that Ukraine is still so dependent on US capabilities might suggest that it is in Zelenskyy’s interest to continue to be as obsequious as possible to Trump and Elon Musk — in the hope that they will relent and provide Kyiv with the help it needs."}],[{"start":292.2,"text":"Instead, the Ukrainian leader has gone in the opposite direction. He has even discussed the possibility that the US might side directly with Russia against Ukraine. “He’s gone full Carney” is the verdict of one top European."}],[{"start":306.56,"text":"That is certainly a risky strategy. But Trump has not left the Ukrainians with many better options."}],[{"start":316.46,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1792461028_2496.mp3"}