{"text":[[{"start":10.02,"text":"In nearly five decades in Brazilian public life, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s victory in Sunday’s election is his greatest political triumph. "},{"start":18.174,"text":"However, the fourth term as president he has now secured is also likely to be his most difficult. "}],[{"start":24.42,"text":"By beating Flávio Bolsonaro in Sunday’s run-off, Lula has cemented his position as one of the great political campaigners of recent times. "},{"start":32.112,"text":"Lula, who turns 81 on Tuesday, has defied the pollsters and the opinion of much of the political class who had already decreed his career was over. "}],[{"start":40.5,"text":"Across the democratic world, incumbent leaders — and especially those of the centre-left — have been swept out of office by voters disgruntled at the cost of living, their concerns fuelled by social media algorithms that turbocharge resentment. "}],[{"start":53.480000000000004,"text":"Lula has not only won re-election in such a climate but is also the first candidate to win in Brazil after losing the first round of voting since elections were restored in 1989. "},{"start":63.22200000000001,"text":"Three weeks ago, Lula was 2.2mn votes behind Bolsonaro; on Sunday he won by 4.4mn votes. "}],[{"start":71,"text":"He pulled off this achievement through a mixture of force of personality and extensive use of the machinery of government. "}],[{"start":77.1,"text":"After a lacklustre campaign before the first round of voting, Lula was able to focus attention on the inexperience of his 45-year-old rival and his personal connections with individuals who have been involved in organised crime in Bolsonaro’s hometown of Rio de Janeiro. "}],[{"start":91.63999999999999,"text":"In a debate on TV Globo on Friday, Bolsonaro made what could have been a catastrophic gaffe by calling Lula “nine fingers” — a reference to a digit he lost at 17 in a factory accident. "},{"start":102.11899999999999,"text":"In a moment that went viral over the weekend, Lula said that Bolsonaro “had never worked in his life” and demanded an apology. "}],[{"start":109.41999999999999,"text":"Lula also used his position as president to offer a series of giveaways to voters — from free public transport on weekends to a 15 per cent increase in his signature social programme. "},{"start":119.41199999999999,"text":"Economists estimate the total cost will be at least R$43.6bn ($8.8bn) next year and potentially much more. "}],[{"start":129.22,"text":"Yet once the glow of a stunning come-from-behind victory starts to fade, the harsh realities of Lula’s fourth term will quickly set in. "},{"start":136.449,"text":"Apart from a brief period in his first term when a corruption scandal threatened to bring down his government, Lula will face his weakest political position as president when he is sworn in again in January. "}],[{"start":147.12,"text":"In congressional elections three weeks ago, rightwing parties secured a dominant position in both the Senate and lower house. "},{"start":153.824,"text":"The new government will face an exhausting negotiation over many issues that have to go to Congress. "},{"start":158.817,"text":"Lula will be a leftwing president in a country where the centre of political gravity has shifted to the right. "}],[{"start":165.05,"text":"His biggest challenge will be the economy. "},{"start":167.65400000000002,"text":"There are strong signs that Lula’s formula for boosting growth, which places heavy emphasis on public spending and consumer borrowing, has reached its limit. "}],[{"start":176.69,"text":"The IMF estimates that Brazil’s gross debt will rise to 98 per cent of GDP this year, well above the average for emerging markets, with the budget deficit reaching 8 per cent of GDP. "},{"start":187.369,"text":"That was before the campaign spending spree. "}],[{"start":190.3,"text":"The result of such loose fiscal policy is real interest rates of almost 10 per cent, which are suffocating business investment and the many families with consumer debts. "},{"start":198.929,"text":"If Lula does not take measures to significantly rein in public spending, he risks a serious credibility crisis in financial markets. "}],[{"start":207.05,"text":"Throughout his career, Lula has always shown the capacity to mix a leftwing worldview with a ruthless sense of pragmatism, which has allowed him to navigate periods when his economic policies have been challenged. "},{"start":217.49200000000002,"text":"At 81 and feeling vindicated by such a stunning comeback, his fourth term may be defined by whether he still has the same political smarts. "}],[{"start":224.82000000000002,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1792985155_9465.mp3"}