How Pennsylvania’s bellwether city could decide the US midterms

{"text":[[{"start":7.58,"text":"Moore Township is a low-key, conservative area of rolling farmland and wooded hills in rural Pennsylvania. But the mood here on election day was anything but restrained."}],[{"start":17.661,"text":"“I can’t stand the Republican Party, and I don’t like what’s happening to this country,” said Tomis Diehl, a pensioner casting his vote at Salem United Church of Christ."}],[{"start":28.32,"text":"Diehl voted for Bob Brooks, the Democratic candidate in Pennsylvania’s seventh congressional district. Polls suggest the retired firefighter and union leader has a good chance of unseating Republican incumbent Ryan Mackenzie, who won in 2024 by just 4,062 votes. “We need to balance out the Republicans,” he said."}],[{"start":null,"text":"

"}],[{"start":47.62,"text":"Diehl is one of many voters in this closely contested district who see the midterms as a chance to express their frustration at two years of chaos under President Donald Trump and restore a measure of sanity to Washington."}],[{"start":59.84,"text":"Alex Miller, a graduate student from the nearby city of Bethlehem — where the FT has a long-running reporting project — said that while he likes Brooks he would vote for anyone running to topple Mackenzie, a “limp congressman” who “signs up to whatever this fascist administration is doing”."}],[{"start":76.775,"text":"Voters like Miller and Diehl could help tip the balance of power in Washington in this year’s midterm elections. They are residents of a bellwether district in a swing state that has voted for the winning president in each election since 2008. While Trump is not on the ballot, the Democrats’ path to regaining control of Congress runs right through it."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":96.4,"text":"Pennsylvania’s seventh has a history of exceptionally close elections. The past two congressional contests were all decided by fewer than three percentage points."}],[{"start":105.28,"text":"“We’re the swingiest of the swingiest,” Brooks told the FT as he cast his ballot in Moore. “And I like being at the tip of the spear.”"}],[{"start":111.76,"text":"But many were voting Republican in Moore, where lawn signs for Mackenzie plastered front gardens. “[Mackenzie’s] good, pro-life, pro-farmer, a tax-cutter,” said Tim Landis, an ex-Marine from the nearby town of Bath. “These things matter to me.”"}],[{"start":127.6,"text":"The seventh is one of four competitive districts in Pennsylvania whose Republican incumbents have been dragged down by Trump’s woeful approval ratings. As a result, it has attracted national attention — and a lot of money."}],[{"start":140.979,"text":"Outside organisations have poured $23.5mn into the race between Brooks and Mackenzie, according to federal campaign finance filings — a huge sum for a district with only 545,000 registered voters."}],[{"start":153.972,"text":"As with many midterm races this year, the contest in PA-7 has become a referendum on Trump. A New York Times/Siena University poll last month found 59 per cent of voters in the district disapprove of how he is doing his job as president. Meanwhile, 39 per cent believe Mackenzie supports Trump too much."}],[{"start":174.157,"text":"Brooks has seized on such data to fuel his campaign. He has sought to tie Mackenzie, whom he has called Trump’s “lapdog”, to the president’s unpopular war in Iran, which has pushed up the price of fuel, and to tariffs on the US’s trading partners that he says have driven up the cost of living."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":191.391,"text":"“People are tired of waking up every day and going to the grocery store, they’re tired of going to the gas station and paying $6.49 a gallon for diesel,” he told the FT. “And when you start affecting people’s pockets, that’s when people start wanting change.”"}],[{"start":206.526,"text":"Licia Paulus, a high school teacher from Bethlehem, is not convinced Democrats will be able to bring down the high price of petrol. But a Democratic-controlled Congress was still a good thing."}],[{"start":217.119,"text":"“It would slow Trump’s agenda a little bit,” she said. “We need to stabilise things.”"}],[{"start":221.2,"text":"Brooks’ attempts to link Mackenzie to an unpopular president have gained some traction, according to experts. In the two years he has served in the House of Representatives, Mackenzie has aligned himself closely with Trump and his Maga movement, casting a critical vote in favour of his “One Big Beautiful Bill”, which delivered tax cuts to wealthy Americans while slashing federal funding on welfare programmes such as food stamps and Medicaid."}],[{"start":245.929,"text":"He also voted against congressional resolutions that tried to restrict Trump’s military operations in Iran despite campaigning in 2024 against America’s involvement in “forever wars”."}],[{"start":257.495,"text":"Mackenzie has in turn depicted Brooks, who supports stronger unions, a higher minimum wage and universal healthcare, as a “nutjob” backed by “far-left radicals”."}],[{"start":267.6,"text":"Such epithets are emblematic of a race that has been exceptionally ugly even by the no-holds-barred standards of modern American politics. The two campaigns have exchanged cease-and-desist letters over attack ads they each allege are defamatory, and both have threatened further legal action."}],[{"start":284.4,"text":"Dona Morgans, a pensioner voting in Moore, said that Mackenzie’s accusations have only increased her enthusiasm for Brooks. “The more people complain about someone, the more I’m likely to vote for him,” she said. “The Republicans are obviously desperate.”"}],[{"start":300.33,"text":"“I’m just annoyed by all the slander on both sides,” said Bruce, who declined to give his surname but said he had just voted “straight Republican”."}],[{"start":307.374,"text":"Brooks has sought to project an image of an “everyman”, highlighting his history of working multiple jobs to put food on his family’s table. He has said that even while running for Congress he has continued to drive a snowplough and coach high school baseball."}],[{"start":320.64,"text":"He has won endorsements from Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro, a centrist Democrat, and the progressive senator from Vermont Bernie Sanders."}],[{"start":329.301,"text":"But even staunch Democrats in Moore said they were unhappy with their party as well as the opposition."}],[{"start":336.4,"text":"One was Jeffrey Bush, a retired plastics specialist, who said he had voted for Brooks and the rest of the Democratic ticket but with a heavy heart."}],[{"start":341.532,"text":"“I’m fed up with both parties,” he said. “The Democrats lost the connection with the working man long ago, so I’m not too enthusiastic about them either. And our president — he should just keep his mouth shut.”"}],[{"start":357.76,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1793781416_4359.mp3"}