Global oil markets swing to surplus as Gulf shipments rebound

{"text":[[{"start":7.88,"text":"Global oil markets have swung into surplus this autumn for the first time since the US-Iran war began, although analysts warn it will take months to rebuild depleted stockpiles."}],[{"start":18.6,"text":"Oil supplies outstripped consumption by almost 2mn barrels a day in October, according to data from the International Energy Agency. The IEA previously reported a slim deficit for September but has since revised the figure to a 600,000 b/d surplus."}],[{"start":35,"text":"The turnaround was underpinned by a surge in shipments from the Gulf, despite an uptick in Iranian attacks on shipping. Producers elsewhere also pumped more oil while consuming nations used less."}],[{"start":46.52,"text":"“The oil market is showing tentative signs of rebalancing,” said IEA analysts in a report published on Friday. Markets are expected to remain in surplus in the fourth quarter of this year and throughout next year, they added."}],[{"start":59,"text":"The shift has eased pressure on global stockpiles, which have been eroded by months of disruption to supplies from the Middle East, one of the world’s biggest oil-producing regions."}],[{"start":68.52,"text":"Observed oil inventories rose by an average of 1.7mn b/d in October, the first increase since June, according to the IEA. They had fallen by 1.9mn b/d over the previous three months."}],[{"start":null,"text":"

"}],[{"start":82.24,"text":"But analysts warn that a return to surplus does not mean that consumers are no longer affected by what the IEA has previously termed “the largest supply disruption in history”."}],[{"start":91.72,"text":"The improvement has also been driven partly by weaker demand, with the IEA forecasting consumption will fall by 2.7mn b/d in 2026 before rebounding by 2mn b/d next year."}],[{"start":104.28,"text":"Most of the extra oil hitting global oil markets has been crude, which helps supply refineries with feedstock but does not immediately alleviate shortages of refined products, due to shortages of refining capacity."}],[{"start":115.76,"text":"Dated Brent, the physical oil benchmark, is priced around $95 a barrel, having traded at $136 a barrel in early October. The prices of some oil products such as jet fuel and diesel have stayed stubbornly high."}],[{"start":129.76,"text":"“Even if we do see a period of weakness in crude prices, that doesn’t necessarily ease pressures on the real economy and [on] households and businesses, if the shortages in refining remain,” said Spencer Dale, a professor at the London School of Economics."}],[{"start":143.8,"text":"Also, analysts say it will take many months of surpluses to replenish the world’s oil stockpiles — particularly those for refined products, which have been eroded far more than for crude."}],[{"start":153.56,"text":"“People immediately focus on the flow and forget that we’ve just been running millions of barrels a day short for eight months,” said Dale."}],[{"start":165.84,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1794581132_9563.mp3"}